For those of you not familiar with Morton Blackwell, he runs the Leadership Institute in Washington, D.C. and has served as the Virginia Republican National Committeeman since 1988. He was President Ronald Reagan's White House liaison (1981-84) to all U.S. conservative organizations. This is a speech Mr. Blackwell gave at the Louisa County Republican Committee luncheon November 12, 2008. — Erick
Thank you for your kind invitation to address you today. When your chairman, Pat Mullins, invited me, of course I accepted. You have probably found out, as I have, that it's a good idea to do what Pat asks you to do.
I've known him for many years, since before he served as Fairfax County Republican Committee chairman. Pat was highly successful there, and I'm not surprised that he's doing so well with you now in Louisa County.
The first part of what I shall say to you today is word-for-word what I said October 25 at a Republican meeting in Lake of the Woods. My talk there was entitled "Predicting Obama's Changes." The only difference is that then I talked about what a President Obama would do. Now those same predictions apply to what I think he will do.
Today I shall not discuss his many questionable associates, his undistinguished record in the Illinois state Senate and in the United States Senate, his record for breaking commitments, or anything he has said during his presidential campaign.
Any reasonably alert person has already heard a lot about those matters.
Instead, I shall make a number of fairly short predictions of what Barack Obama will do to our country.
He has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars promising to bring change to America, but very few people took the time and trouble to consider just what changes Barack Obama would make.
That's unfortunate, because changes can be good or bad. A person who jumps out of the frying pan into the fire certainly experiences a change for the worse.
In fact, every disaster is a change. By definition, every disaster is a change. I think well-informed people, if they think about it, can predict with accuracy many of the most important changes Barack Obama will bring to America.
I do not make these predictions casually. They are the result of careful observation and serious thought. I offer them to you in the belief that every one of them will be proved right.
My first prediction is perhaps the most important, because personnel is policy.
An Obama Administration will, of course, appoint a massive influx of new federal officials into thousands of positions of power.
I predict these new Obama officials will almost all be hostile to private business and private property, contemptuous of national defense and national sovereignty, committed to bigger government and higher taxes, militantly partisan, opposed to traditional moral values, and thoroughly indoctrinated in extreme left-wing ideology.
These are the kind of people who nominated him. They were the core of his general election campaign, and they are the ones he will pick to run the executive branch of the federal government.
My second prediction is that every single federal judge appointed by a President Obama will be on the left of the legal spectrum, most of them on the far left. His judges will systematically legislate from the bench, regardless of the original intent of the framers of our Constitution.
Next, I predict that Obama will dramatically increase taxes on the most productive people in America. This will reduce their incentive to be productive.
And I predict that he will dramatically increase taxes on those employers, whether major corporations or small businesses, who now provide jobs to the most people. This will reduce their profits, their incentive, and their ability to provide new jobs.
I predict that he will dramatically increase government regulation on American businesses. This will cut profits, reduce employment, but increase the number and power of government bureaucrats.
I predict that he will dramatically increase government spending, far above today's already high levels.
Even big tax increases could not fund all his spending. That means the government will have to borrow or print record amounts of more money, which will further damage the already weakened value of our U.S. dollar and soon lead to a painful rise in inflation.
I predict an Obama Administration will work tirelessly to change permanently the balance of political power in America to prevent any possibility of a Republican resurgence. He will do all in his power to reduce the national two-party system to what they have in Chicago.
In Barack Obama's hometown, Chicago, Republicans are a seriously endangered species and conservatives are virtually extinct. That's the way he likes it.
Specifically, I predict Obama will massively increase government funding of leftist groups to increase their power in future elections and in future legislative battles.
You may remember at the start of the current credit crisis, when Sen. John McCain suspended his campaign briefly to go to Washington, Democrats in the U.S. Senate falsely announced that a $700 billion deal had already been reached.
Part of that falsely announced "deal" was a provision to provide $800 million directly to "community organizing" groups such as the notorious ACORN.
U.S. House Republicans were able to get that particular power grab dropped from the final bill. But that's a good example of the type of funding Obama will pour into the coffers of leftist groups.
I predict that Obama will dramatically increase the already outrageous allocation of taxpayer money to his allies the labor unions.
Some election results are still in doubt, and we cannot rely on some content-free Republicans to vote to sustain filibusters.
If the Democrats gain enough seats this year to give them a filibuster-proof Senate, I predict Obama will rush through a flood of leftist legislation which will dwarf the package of bills passed by Franklin Roosevelt in his famous first hundred days. Many of Obama's bills will be naked power grabs.
I predict Obama will instantly push through the Congress the so-called "Card Check" bill, which would do away with the right of workers to a secret ballot as to whether or not they want to be in labor unions.
But even worse, I predict that President Obama, with a filibuster-proof Senate majority, would push and Congress would pass a repeal of Section 14(b) of the Taft-Hartley Act. That giant gift to the labor union bosses would abolish the Right to Work bills now in effect in 22 states and bring compulsory unionism to all of America.
While increasing the political resources of his allies, President Obama will work overtime to cripple or destroy his opponents in the political process.
I predict that Obama will task his Internal Revenue Service to begin immediately to harass and, if possible, shut down non-profit conservative groups active in the public policy process. This was common during the Clinton Administration and will multiply under Obama.
In the Obama Administration, I predict the Justice Department will join the I.R.S. in going after conservative leaders and conservative groups which offer significant opposition to the leftist political and policy agenda.
Conservative talk radio also stands in the way of the unity Barack Obama desires, so I predict he will take effective steps, through a re-imposition of the so-called Fairness Doctrine and other actions to cripple or kill conservative talk radio.
I predict that the leftist-dominated mainstream print and broadcast media will not call Obama to task for any of his moves to consolidate his power.
Those whom Rush Limbaugh calls the drive-by media will cooperate fully with Obama, attempt to justify everything he does, and blame his excesses on stubborn conservatives who refuse to cooperate in a spirit of unity in this time of crisis.
As he repeatedly demonstrated in his published writings, Barack Obama will make a show of carefully considering all sides of every issue. And I predict that then, as in his writings, he will come down on the leftist side every time.
I predict that all of Obama's new taxes, new spending programs, new regulations, attacks on property rights, and restrictions on trade will prevent America's usual, quick recovery from the current recession.
The bad economic times will go on and on, while Obama wages class warfare and keeps offering his supporters new helpings of something for nothing.
And I predict that President Obama will forever blame the continued economic slump on conservatives and Republicans and enact still more taxes, new spending programs, new regulations, attacks on property rights and trade restrictions.
This will further stifle wealth production in America and make more people dependent on the government, which is where the far left and Barack Obama want us.
I predict President Obama will weaken the military of the United States in many ways. After all, he will say, we have so many needs for urgent domestic spending that America cannot afford any unnecessary expenses on military personnel, weapons, and equipment.
In foreign relations, I predict Barack Obama will establish cozy relations with socialist regimes across the world, abandon allies who now rely on America, and work to undermine governments which support economic liberty for their citizens.
And I predict he will take major steps to enable international bodies to start taxing and regulating the United States. He will say this must be done in order to regain the respect of the world.
Behind Obama's smiling mask of unity and hope there lurks a leftist ideologue who knows very well the changes he wants to make in America. And inside that ideologue I believe there lives a leftist demagogue.
So I predict, finally, that we will often see him drop the smile and use his oratorical powers to generate rising levels of hate among his supporters against his surviving opponents.
All in all, it's not a pretty picture.
I surely hope and pray our country doesn't have to find out that my predictions prove accurate.
Conservatives took decades to build a normal governing majority in America. Republicans managed foolishly to fritter away that advantage by ignoring many of the principles which attracted that majority.
Now conservatives must start over again as we did after the Goldwater defeat in 1964, but this time we don't have to start from scratch. Large numbers of already-identified conservatives can be reached now by existing, often large, non-partisan conservative organizations they already hold in high regard.
If Obama and the congressional Democrats don't destroy the freedom of talk radio, conservatives will continue to have that communications capability outside the reach of the leftist, mainstream media filters.
The American people would not tolerate a Chinese-style control of internet communications, so computers seem likely also to be available for conservative communications and organizing purposes.
Conservative Republican candidates fared better than content-free Republicans in the November 4 national elections, so conservatives will be stronger in the Republican minorities in the U.S. House and Senate in 2009.
The more conservative Republican minority will benefit from the fact that unity is easier to achieve for an embattled minority whose survival is at risk.
Democrats will promptly begin to suffer the same type of damage suffered by so many Republicans during recent years, best summed up in Lord Acton's words: "Power tends to corrupt..."
It shall take time to swing the political pendulum to the right again.
Conservatives now have no one obviously like Ronald Reagan to rally behind. Conservatives take longer than the left to build up national leaders because the leftist media tries to identify prospective conservative leaders early and destroy them before they can develop a large following.
On the other hand, the so-called mainstream media can quickly build a national following for people who could never achieve widespread popularity on their own.
Those media minions quickly tore down Gov. Sarah Palin's initial popularity and built up the puny national stature of gaff-prone Sen. Joe Biden, who received fewer votes in his own run for president than there are people around Wasilla, Alaska.
Thoughtful conservative leaders and activists woke up November 5 and began to compile lists of action items like the following:
Build the membership and political skills of existing conservative organizations.
Create new conservative organizations capable of identifying and activating more people in the public policy process.
Spot excellent people early as future candidates. Then develop procedures to achieve conservative unity behind single candidates for future party nominations.
Persuade conservative candidates not to hire consultants who would spend their clients' budgets on commissionable advertising rather than for non-commissionable organization on the ground and on the web.
Expose and prevent the hiring of political consultants who recruit second or third conservative candidates for the same office merely to obtain another paying client.
Vastly increase grassroots conservative participation in internal party business. Principled conservatives must learn better how to suffer fools patiently, if not gladly.
Pour resources into College Republicans and other efforts to identify, recruit, train, and organize young people who would otherwise get caught up in the left-wing indoctrination centers otherwise known as most American colleges and universities.
Work to re-introduce limited government, free enterprise, patriotism, and traditional values into the government-run schools and encourage the growing shift to home schooling.
Persuade more people to dig into their pockets and contribute more generously to organizations, candidates, and party committees they see fighting for their conservative principles.
The left-wing ideologues who even now are headed to Washington to staff the Obama Administration will do their best to frighten their opponents into keeping their heads down, as Democrats Huey Long and Franklin Roosevelt did in the 1930s. This will somewhat retard the rise of Republican strength.
The economy won't recover as it normally would, because of an inevitable uncertainty about what the government will do and because of the reduced upside potential for making investments in new jobs.
This will serve the Democrats' interest by providing excuses for more taxation, spending, and regulation, which will increase the number of people who see themselves as dependent on the government for something for nothing.
That's a lot of bad news, but I believe President Obama will overreach. He won't be able to deliver all that the leftist groups will demand of him. And grassroots conservatives, whom I repeat won't be starting from scratch, will become so angry at the damage he will be doing to our country that we shall organize and fight politically as never before.
The tide will turn again to favor conservatives in the United States who proved in recent decades to be as persistent as the most determined socialists.