Big 10 (11?) Poll and Ohio Newspaper Poll
Both show good news for McCain
One poll, Ohio Newspapers, has McCain up by 6 (48-42, nearly double the 3.3 MOE). It uses LV, and ran from 9/12 – 9/16. 23% of those polled said Obama’s race would hurt him, but 44% said McCain’s age would hurt him. Proving, of course, that Ohioans feel other Ohioans are ageists. Or not. Maybe a reverse Reagan effect, or something.
Other interesting details:
- McCain wins white voters 55-34, while Obama wins black voters 98-0. I can see where McCain’s supporters might be the ones voting on racial lines.
- McCain wins college graduates 58-38, Obama wins high school non-graduates 82-12. Clearly, the GOP consists solely of uneducated clingers of Bibles and Guns.
- The only region of the state that Obama wins is NE (Cleveland / Akron).
- Only 32% think that Obama is qualified to be President. That means, of course that more people would vote for him, than think he is qualified to be President. I think that says a lot about the “Anti-Bush, Anti-GOP” sentiment as opposed to the love for Obama.
- Over half think that they are better off (19% or the same 34%) than they were 4 years ago. That surprises me, honestly, and bodes well for McCain.
- 44% of GOP in the poll favor Universal Healthcare, even if it means higher taxes.
Analysis of the Big Integer poll below:The other poll (Big 10 Battleground taken 9/14 – 9/17) shows Obama up 1. Well, sort of. It actually has McCain up 1, but when Undecided Leaners are included, it has Obama up one. Interesting way to publish the results of your poll (maybe the up 1 / down 1 is due to the fact there are 11 teams in the Big 10, and that causes confusion). It also uses RV, instead of LV. It also has Independents making up nearly as much of the Ohio electorate as Republicans. So, given all of these facts, I think McCain looks pretty good to be up 1 or down 1, depending on for whom you are rooting.
One interesting breakdown is that 60% of those surveyed (and only 28% of those surveyed ID’d themselves as GOP) said that “African Americans often use race to justify wrong-doing.” If only 28% of the poll said they were GOP, the enlightened progressives and/or independents have some ‘splainin to do, if they want to continue to paint the GOP as racist.
The latest RCP average has McCain up by 1.6 in Ohio. When polls using only LV as opposed to RV are used, that lead jumps to 3 points (47.6 – 44.6). Intrade has Obama up slightly, so this might be a decent buy opportunity.