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Examining Ohio Polls

Each time a new Ohio Presidential poll comes out, I like to take a look at the cross tabs, specifically the breakdown of D,R,I.  The breakdowns in the last four statewide elections were as follows (always D,R,I – from cnn.com):

  • 2004 (Presidential) – 35,40,25
  • 2006 (Average of Gov. and Sen. races) – 40,37,23
  • 2008 (Presidential) – 39,31,30
  • 2010 (Average of Gov. and Sen. races) – 36,36,28

Average those four together gets 37.4%,36.2%,26.4%.  I expect that 2012 will be somewhere between 2006’s D+3 and 2010’s even.

With that in mind, I filter each new poll (that provides D,R,I  breakdown) to get a sense for how much the sample skews things.

The 9-13 NBC/WSJ Poll, for example, has Obama (O)+7, but with a D+10 skew.  That’s right, they feel that Ohio will have a bigger partisan skew towards D than 2012.

When normalized based on the final breakdowns above, the race is:

  • Tied using the average
  • Romney (R)+1.8 using 2010
  • O+2 using 2006

Similarly, recent Ohio Poll, PPP, and Columbus Dispatch Polls show a very close race.

It’s important when looking at polls to understand that who the pollster surveys will greatly influence the results (not that that is anything new)

- NDPhog

@irishphog

 

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