As a follow-up to my post about Ohio poll skews, I’ll update this diary (I assume that’s the best method, as opposed to making new posts each time) with every few Ohio polls released.
- Average of polls used: Obama leads 49-45 with a partisan skew of D+5. Romney wins Independents by 4 points. No way that happens and he doesn’t win the state. Realclearpolitics.com average of O+4.8 is laughable.
- Using average of 2004-2010 skew of D+1.2: Obama leads 47-46
- Using 2010 skew of R+1: Romney leads 47-46
- Using 2006 skew of D+3: Obama leads 48 – 45.4
Polls used (note, I only include the last month’s worth and don’t use polls where I can’t ascertain the D,R,I breakdown):
- 9/19 FOX
- 9/13 NBC-WSJ-Marist
- 9/9 PPP
- 8/26 Columbus Dispatch
- 8/23 Ohio Poll