South Dakota has only one House seat, so its House elections are full-fledged statewide affairs, and so we get a rare House poll to look at, from Rasmussen Reports.
It's not looking good for the three term incumbent and Democrat. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is behind Republican Kristi Noem 53-41 (MoE 4.5) for a huge 90% lead probability. It's hard to be behind when there's a 95% likelihood that you're above 48.5, as is the case with Noem. Intersting quote from Rasmussen:
Noem earns 75% support from those voters who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care bill. Herseth-Sandlin gets 75% of the vote of those who are Strongly Opposed.
The PPACA just isn't popular enough for those Strongly Opposed to repeal to help Sandlin enough.