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Electoral Map preview, Monday 11/3

A scientist's view of where the race stands.

With the mainstream media no longer being a reliable source for objective information, here’s my read on the election. The below uses actual data, as we do in the scientific world, rather than liberal subjective bias.

Here’s my personal electoral map. McCain will have to run a tough course to get there, but its not out of the realm of possibility:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obamavsmccain/?map=1&save=3-3-3-3-1-2-1-1-1-5-3-1-3-1-4-1-3-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-3-3-3-3-5-5-1-1-1-5-3-5-3-1-5-1-3-3-3-3-3-1-5-1-3-1-3

In case that didn’t show up well, I have it:Obama 239 (including 2004 red states: Iowa, New Mexico)McCain 174

Leaning:Colorado (9 EVs)- ObamaIndiana (11 EVs) – McCain

Toss-up:New Hampshire, 4Nevada, 5Virginia, 13North Carolina, 15Pennsylvania, 21Ohio, 20Florida, 27

I base these using the following data, in this order:- Rasmussen state-wise poll- Rasmussen candidate favorability rating. Generally, Obama averages 35% Very Favorable, 30% Very Unfavorable. McCain averages 25% Very Favorable, 20% Very Unfavorable. The data says, then, that people have a stronger opinion of Obama, one way or the other. For any battleground state where the Very Favorable/Very Unfavorable rating deviated strongly from that, that is very telling. For example, in Missouri, Obama is 40% very unfavorable, so I give it to McCain. Conversely, in New Mexico, McCain is above 30% very unfavorable, so give it to Obama. Missouri and New Mexico will not be battlegrounds tomorrow (good job James! Must have been the emails!). Colorado is on the verge on not being so either.- Obama primary result vs. Hillary. Where Obama faired poorly (PA, Ohio), add points to McCain. Conversely, where Obama did better than average (VA, North Carolina), favor Obama.- State’s electoral history. Advantage McCain in Indiana.- State demographics. Florida and PA may be better for McCain, due to older population.- Remainder of state ballot. Mrs. Dole, for example, may have hurt McCain with that ‘godless American PAC’ ad in her Senate race.

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