Lead Lined Lifesaver: Wisconsin Exit Polls
Smarting from the whipping they just took in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, Democrats filled the airwaves clamoring that the silver lining from their loss in Wisconsin’s Recall Vote was that Romney lost to Obama by 12 points in the CNN exit poll. They argued that the results from the exit poll shows that Wisconsin has little chance of being in contention for the 2012 Presidential Election:
Voters were split 52%-48% with Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, taking a slight advantage over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, a Democrat, the CNN exit polls showed. Asked how they would vote if the presidential election were held today, a 12-point margin emerged. President Barack Obama would have carried the state with 54% to GOP candidate Mitt Romney’s 42%.
Is this a life saver for Obama? Hardly. The Obama numbers may appear silver, but they’re actually lead. The exit polls leaned heavily for the Democrat’s Barrett at only a 4 point spread. With 95% reporting, the actual results were 54 to 46%, an 8 point spread. Although the recall race may not translation perfectly to the Presidential race, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to extrapolate that Obama’s true spread is likely less than half that 12 percent which puts Obama on much shakier ground than he would like in Wisconsin at this stage of the race.
Whether or not Romney should put resources in Wisconsin is debatable, but the real news out of the recall race is that Obama is weaker in this blue state than expected and these exit poll lifesavers are more like lead balloons.