The recent “election” that took place in Iran doesn’t require a PhD in Poli-Sci to figure out. Figurehead Incumbent President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, just stole an election. Protestors have the audacity to protest. They are being dealt with in keeping with the traditions of unconcerned tyrannies.
Ralph Peters is too old and too politically incorrect to waste his time tip-toeing around the obvious. He gazes upon the “robust debate” occurring now in Iran and writes the following.
The result was that the mullahs and state corporatists no longer saw a need to play pretend. Bush worried them. Obama doesn't.
What happened in Iran was not so much a robust debate, as it was a Beer-Hall Putsch. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei presides over a theocracy as illegitimate as The Babylonian Captivity of Medieval France.
Of course in Iran, the Avignon Papacy dynamic is reversed. The religious leadership of Iran, controls “elected” President Ahmadinejad the way a puppet-master pulls the strings of a marionette. Had the actual votes been counted, the “winner”, Ahmadinejad, would never have gotten close to 64%.
What makes this entire farce even more farcical; is the fact that Ali Khamenei got to select who his horse got to run against. Then he still felt compelled to rig the outcome.
Nationwide results were announced two hours after the polls closed. How rural villages completely lacking computers and modern telecommunications got these results counted, tabulated and reported within two hours of closing is an engineering mystery on the order of the erection of Stonehenge.
Defeated candidate Mirhoussein Mousavi wisely fears for the lives of his supporters. He feels about as safe and secure as Morgan Tsvangiri must feel in the immediate aftermath of a Zimbabwe election. He has called for his followers to stand down and accept the unacceptable.
Yet his followers do what their leader will not. Their vexation waxes implacable in the face of moral outrage. They take to the Internet, to Twitter, to the underground media. Facebook hosts the "I bet I can find 1,000,000 people who dislike Mahmoud Ahmadinejad!" group - it has more than 57,000 members.
The online organizers are abuzz. They mount what they probably know is a futile resistance. They’ve just had it with things as they are, and keep doing battle with it anyway. Examples of messages sent follow below.
"Alert: Mousavi march still on. 5PM," read one short message, or "tweet," on Twitter.
"Good luck at the march. Don't take cars, they will be waiting for you when you return to them," read another.
Iran, in many ways, is weak like all self-crippling despotisms are weak. Spengler, in his editorial Sex, drugs and Islam
Iran is dying. The collapse of Iran's birth rate during the past 20 years is the fastest recorded in any country, ever. Demographers have sought in vain to explain Iran's population implosion through family planning policies, or through social factors such as the rise of female literacy.
Behind this catastrophic decline lie many of the vices and failures modern Americans would associate with Detroit or South Philadelphia. Spengler cites examples of exactly where Iran appears headed.
Two indicators of Iranian morale are worth citing.
First, prostitution has become a career of choice among educated Iranian women. On February 3, the Austrian daily Der Standard published the results of two investigations conducted by the Tehran police, suppressed by the Iranian media.
"More than 90% of Tehran's prostitutes have passed the university entrance exam, according to the results of one study, and more than 30% of them are registered at a university or studying," reports Der Standard. "The study was assigned to the Tehran Police Department and the Ministry of Health, and when the results were tabulated in early January no local newspaper dared to so much as mention them."
Second, according to a recent report from the US Council on Foreign Relations, "Iran serves as the major transport hub for opiates produced by [Afghanistan], and the UN Office of Drugs and Crime estimates that Iran has as many as 1.7 million opiate addicts." That is, 5% of Iran's adult, non-elderly population of 35 million is addicted to opiates.
Thus, beneath the bluster and the support for exogenous guerilla campaigns, Iran becomes increasingly desperate and increasingly desperado. They have nowhere left to go but down. Absent the emergence of The Hidden Iman, they will go down slowly and painfully – like the garbage in a trash compactor.
Barack Obama has just jumped into this scenario by issuing a reprieve. He wants to start a dialogue and open Iran to the West the same way we were going open North Korea to the West under Bill Clinton. We’ll give them concessions, feed a few of their mobs and back the ratchet constricting the Iranian Theocracy off a few notches so that they can breathe. In return, Barack Obama expects that they will negotiate with him in good faith and stop making the world a more dangerous place.
It has to be the most delusional decision President Obama has taken since he selected Joe Biden as his Veep. The Iranians not only don’t want to negotiate in good faith; they cannot. Their religion, their culture, their entire raison d’être conspire against any positive interaction with the US. It would be on a level of the Late Reverend Billy Graham having a cup of tea and a chat with Old Scratch.
Thus, the Iranians do what logic dictates they do with Obama’s Cairo Initiative. They rape it for what its worth. Until Barack Obama realizes that the US will have implacable enemies for decades and perhaps centuries after we are fortunate enough to have him out of power, gunfire is the only predictable response his overtures to the Middle East will receive.