When recently asked if he (Rep. Paul) might mount an independent candidacy, he said: “I’m not thinking about it because, look, I’m not doing badly right now. … So we concentrate only on one thing: Keep moving up in the polls, and see how things come out in a month or two.”
(HT: George Will)
There is a growing fear of Ron Paul as he advances in pre-Caucus polls before the first GOP Primary event in Iowa. Such “Paulanoia” may not be entirely unjustified. He deliberately stokes a fringe of deracinated individuals of dubious civic virtue and questionable allegiance to the GOP. He’s endorsed that cracker-jack Cornell University Professor of Architecture, Cynthia McKinney. (At least it wasn’t his fellow Klingon, oops I mean Texan, Sheila Jackson-Lee). Oh, and he’d like to appease Iran, audit the Fed, and probably keel-haul every member of the dreaded CFR. And the GOP Establishment just can’t have such lapses of proper decorum.
It began to reach fever-pitch last week, when Ron Paul began leading a series of polls taken of GOP voters in Iowa. This caused many members of the GOP establishment to ponder the unthinkable. What if Ron Paul wins a Primary? Would this prove the Mayans perspicacious with regards to Anno Domine 2012?
No. It probably wouldn’t. According to Margaret Carlson, it could mark the moment that the Iowa Caucus came to be regarded with the contempt that it deserves. Iowa did figure prominently in the 1976 Democratic Primary. Jimmy Carter launched himself into national prominence by springing an upset. But Carlson then goes on to lay out logical reasons why the Iowa Caucus is primarily a Geek-Circus that will not meaningfully inform us how a GOP candidate would fare before a broader American electorate.
But let’s not kid ourselves. There’s nothing representative about Iowa. Whites make up 91.3 percent of the state’s 3 million citizens, compared with 64 percent of the country at large. Hispanics are 5 percent of Iowans, blacks 2.9 percent. Demographics aren’t the only anomaly. Unemployment in Iowa is less than 6 percent, the seventh-lowest rate in the nation. A record 115,000 Republicans turned out to vote in the 2008 caucuses — that’s right, less than 4 percent of Iowans makes a record. And since 1976, Iowans have picked the Republican nominee only three times.
So a Ron Paul victory in Iowa will not fundamentally reform the GOP. It will just make Republicans in the other 49 states call up Canada and offer them Iowa in return for some Alberta tar sands and a conditional draft pick. To George Will, the bigger danger emerges if Ron Paul goes 3rd Party.
Will describes what could happen if this took place.
it is plausible to conclude that a Paul candidacy would have these consequences:
• It would enable Mr. Obama to carry two states he lost in 2008: Missouri (10 electoral votes), which he lost by 0.13 points, and Arizona (11), which he lost by 8.52 points to native son John McCain.
• It would enable Mr. Obama to again win four states he captured in 2008 and that the Republican nominee probably must win in 2012: Florida (29), Indiana (11), North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13).
• It would secure Mr. Obama’s hold on the following states he won in 2008 but that Republicans hope to take back next year: New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) and New Hampshire (4).
This may be idle speculation. The people who will turn up on a cold and rainy morning to vote out the status-quo and audit the Fed already have a movement. George Soros and The Tides Foundation bought them #OWS to play with and thereby secured their allegiance to the Democratic Party section of the national bland-wagon to Gomorrah.
Could Ron Paul really turn out a disaffected rump on the right as Will opines above? All six of the Ron Paul supports here at Redstate (who probably have at least 5 user names apiece) would gladly join such a coalition. However, my suspicion is that they will be too busy voting for Obama in 2012 as they intended to all along.
On the so-called Alternate-Right, some see Ron Paul as the least of three evils. The topsider crowd at National Romney Online will grandly ignore his existence except as a target of ridicule. Jay Nordlinger offers a prime example below.
It cracks me up when Ron Paul says, “I, as president, will not do that.” And I, as gold medalist in the decathlon next year, will donate half my Wheaties contract to the Salvation Army.
On balance, I think the Topsider Crowd gets this one right. Will simply must relax and breathe slowly into the brown paper bag. Ron Paul *could* go run as a Libertarian. He *might* even secure their nomination. He has to survive the Bill Self and Gary Johnson cavalry charge. Then he can fly the flag of somewhat respectable anarchy into his retirement from public life. I hope he finds relaxation and respite from having to pander to crowds of the great unwashed demanding that we audit the Fed.