While most of the hype for 2009 is for the elections in Virginia and New Jersey, we have several important elections here in Michigan.

The big one here is the 19th State Senatorial District race.  This one is up for grabs.

The 19th District covers all of Calhoun County, which is slightly democrat leaning in most years, but was won by Bush in 2004. It voted for Gore, Granholm twice, and Obama. It has two state rep districts, one of which shared with Kalamazoo County. The shared district leans Republican, not overwhelmingly so. The other district leans democrat. It was Mark Schauer’s district before it voted for Nofs. After it voted for Nofs, it voted for another democrat, Kate Segal, by a large margin.

Jackson County is more competitive and usually slightly republican leaning, but voted for Granholm once and Obama once. It did vote for Bush twice and Posthumus once. The state rep districts were Republican districts for awhile until the 2006 elections where Marty Griffin and Mike Simpson both won in Districts 64 and 65. Griffin is the former mayor of Jackson and the Current state rep in District 64.

Mike Nofs (R) and Marty Griffin (D) are facing off for this seat. Mike Nofs is from Battle Creek and has a knack of winning difficult races that Republicans have difficulty winning. So does Marty Griffin on the democrats side.

62nd District State Rep Results
2002:

62th District
Mike Nofs
Ted Dearing
GOP%
Dem%

City of Albion
744
1380
35.03%
64.97%

Albion Twp
253
156
61.86%
38.14%

Athens Twp
538
316
63.00%
37.00%

City of Battle Creek (99%)
6819
6937
49.57%
50.43%

Bedford Twp (1 precinct)
12
13
48.00%
52.00%

Burlington Township
357
226
61.23%
38.77%

Clarence Twp
456
244
65.14%
34.86%

Clarendon Twp
204
90
69.39%
30.61%

Convis Twp
398
162
71.07%
28.93%

Eckford Twp
344
148
69.92%
30.08%

Fredonia Twp
404
207
66.12%
33.88%

Homer Twp
459
260
63.84%
36.16%

Lee Twp
237
118
66.76%
33.24%

Leroy Twp
794
504
61.17%
38.83%

Marengo Twp
469
235
66.62%
33.38%

Sheridan Twp
326
247
56.89%
43.11%

Springfield City
476
560
45.95%
54.05%

Tekonsha Twp
329
183
64.26%
35.74%

TOTAL
13619
11986
53.19%
46.81%

That’s impressive in that district. Albion and Battle Creek are the two most democrat parts of the county, with Springfield right behind that. That was an open seat race, where they voted for Granholm and then voted for Nofs. The 2004 race was more impressive. Nofs won Battle Creek this time. Democrats can not win this district if they don’t win Battle Creek by a large margin. Albion alone is not big enough for them to pull this off. 2004 was a good year for Bush in Calhoun County, and that may have helped.

62th District
Mike Nofs
Lynne Hayley
GOP%
Dem%

City of Albion
974
2033
32.39%
67.61%

Albion Twp
344
248
58.11%
41.89%

Athens Twp
839
443
65.44%
34.56%

City of Battle Creek (99%)
10917
10497
50.98%
49.02%

Bedford Twp (1 precinct)
24
16
60.00%
40.00%

Burlington Township
507
359
58.55%
41.45%

Clarence Twp
653
342
65.63%
34.37%

Clarendon Twp
345
198
63.54%
36.46%

Convis Twp
547
299
64.66%
35.34%

Eckford Twp
467
224
67.58%
32.42%

Fredonia Twp
544
351
60.78%
39.22%

Homer Twp
697
505
57.99%
42.01%

Lee Twp
329
209
61.15%
38.85%

Leroy Twp
1303
705
64.89%
35.11%

Marengo Twp
649
353
64.77%
35.23%

Sheridan Twp
449
356
55.78%
44.22%

Springfield City
862
958
47.36%
52.64%

Tekonsha Twp
486
313
60.83%
39.17%

TOTAL
20936
18409
53.21%
46.79%

Then there’s the democrat landslide year of 2006. Nofs survives a rematch with Lynne Haley, despite a disaster in most of the state among state reps. Most impressively, he won the City of Battle Creek once again. It’s usually the townships if anything that make Republicans competitive in Calhoun County.

62th District
Mike Nofs
Lynne Hayley
GOP%
Dem%

City of Albion
695
1406
33.08%
66.92%

Albion Twp
291
200
59.27%
40.73%

Athens Twp
586
320
64.68%
35.32%

City of Battle Creek (99%)
8102
7432
52.16%
47.84%

Bedford Twp (1 precinct)
24
16
60.00%
40.00%

Burlington Township
405
317
56.09%
43.91%

Clarence Twp
516
316
62.02%
37.98%

Clarendon Twp
268
162
62.33%
37.67%

Convis Twp
380
261
59.28%
40.72%

Eckford Twp
357
190
65.27%
34.73%

Fredonia Twp
413
313
56.89%
43.11%

Homer Twp
496
329
60.12%
39.88%

Lee Twp
264
179
59.59%
40.41%

Leroy Twp
1052
609
63.34%
36.66%

Marengo Twp
506
295
63.17%
36.83%

Sheridan Twp
358
293
54.99%
45.01%

Springfield City
572
649
46.85%
53.15%

Tekonsha Twp
364
252
59.09%
40.91%

TOTAL
15649
13539
53.61%
46.39%

Three wins. The other district in Calhoun County was and still is held by a Republican state rep. That’s the one with Marshall and some of the more Southwestern townships. While one precinct in Battle Creek and all but one precinct of Bedford Township is in the other Calhoun district.

Now to Griffin’s State Rep district. Griffin ran three times in this district. He lost in 2004 in a close battle where he ran well ahead of John Kerry who bombed badly in Jackson County. He came back and won twice. Griffin wan well even in some GOP leaning townships there, like Summit. 2004 was an Open Seat. 2006 was a rematch. 2008 was a trouncing.

64th District
Baxter
Griffin
GOP%
Dem%

Concord Township
797
483
61.74%
37.41%

Hanover Township
1158
719
61.14%
37.96%

City of Jackson
4540
7497
37.29%
61.58%

Napoleon Township
1701
1544
52.18%
47.36%

Parma Township
671
510
56.58%
43.00%

Pulaski Township
636
334
65.36%
34.33%

Sandstone Township
1169
678
62.71%
36.37%

Spring Arbor Township
2537
1204
67.06%
31.83%

Summit Township
5578
5460
49.41%
48.37%

TOTAL
18787
18429
49.81%
48.87%

Spring Arbor is the top GOP area by percentage, and Baxter was from the townships. Hanover, I believe. Maybe Parma. They rematched in 2006, where the State turned against the GOP in a big way. Griffin took advantage of both that, and his 2004 results which were a “moral victory” of sorts in the future. Summit and Napoleon Townships flipped, and Spring Arbor wasn’t enough for Baxter. Too bad, since he’s a good guy.

64th District
Baxter
Griffin
GOP%
Dem%

Concord Township
665
409
61.92%
38.08%

Hanover Township
829
711
53.83%
46.17%

City of Jackson
3018
5703
34.61%
65.39%

Napoleon Township
1337
1359
49.59%
50.41%

Parma Township
488
478
50.52%
49.48%

Pulaski Township
484
297
61.97%
38.03%

Sandstone Township
905
659
57.86%
42.14%

Spring Arbor Township
1967
1161
62.88%
37.12%

Summit Township
4485
4926
47.66%
52.34%

TOTAL
14178
15703
47.45%
52.55%

And 2008 wasn’t even close. Leland Prebble was thrown to the wolves and didn’t get the support he needed to give Griffin the tough race he needed.

64th District
Prebble
Griffin
GOP%
Dem%

Concord Township
676
661
50.56%
49.44%

Hanover Township
878
991
46.98%
53.02%

City of Jackson
2994
9725
23.54%
76.46%

Napoleon Township
1249
2045
37.92%
62.08%

Parma Township
538
662
44.83%
55.17%

Pulaski Township
506
438
53.60%
46.40%

Sandstone Township
970
951
50.49%
49.51%

Spring Arbor Township
2154
1604
57.32%
42.68%

Summit Township
4489
7183
38.46%
61.54%

TOTAL
14454
24260
37.34%
62.66%

That’s the election history of those two strong candidates in their state rep districts. Mark Schauer, from Battle Creek, left the 19th Vacant. He ran against Mickey Mortimer in the 19th in 2002 in a race that should have been more competitive than it was. Mortimer, a state rep from Jackson County, won the portion of Jackson County in the district, but lost bad in Calhoun County. For the State Senate District, 2002 was a competitive attempt, but a big win by Schauer. In 2006, in a very, very, very, poor move from the GOP to not challenge Schauer. Fulton was thrown to the wolves. It was not secret that Schauer wanted to go to Congress. He should have been hit hard in 06, and also recalled in 07/08 for his tax increase vote. That didn’t happen, and he beat Walberg narrowly.

The 19th has ALL of Calhoun County, but NOT all of Jackson County. It does not contain Grass Lake Township, Leoni Township, Norvell Township, and Summit Township. That favors Nofs. Griffin ran well in Summit Township, and Leoni Township is a swing township at the top of the ticket which hurts Griffin since he’s a near homer there. Here’s the 2002 results.

19th District
Mortimer
Schauer
GOP%
Dem%

Calhoun County:

City of Albion
551
1575
25.92%
74.08%

Albion Township
185
225
45.12%
54.88%

City of Battle Creek
4709
9048
34.23%
65.77%

Bedford Township
1062
1953
35.22%
64.78%

Burlington Township
263
319
45.19%
54.81%

Clarence Township
403
305
56.92%
43.08%

Clarendon Township
173
125
58.05%
41.95%

Convis Township
291
270
51.87%
48.13%

Eckford Township
274
217
55.80%
44.20%

Emmett Township
1467
2257
39.39%
60.61%

Fredonia Township
276
333
45.32%
54.68%

Homer Township
382
335
53.28%
46.72%

Lee Township
188
168
52.81%
47.19%

Leroy Township
595
697
46.05%
53.95%

Marengo Township
345
360
48.94%
51.06%

City of Marshall
1025
1498
40.63%
59.37%

Marshall Township
593
641
48.06%
51.94%

Newton Township
422
616
40.66%
59.34%

Pennfield Township
1244
1822
40.57%
59.43%

Sheridan Township
261
315
45.31%
54.69%

Springfield City
318
719
30.67%
69.33%

Tekonsha Township
224
288
43.75%
56.25%

Jackson County:

Blackman Township
2472
2557
49.15%
50.85%

Columbia Township
1596
1167
57.76%
42.24%

Concord Township
495
348
58.72%
41.28%

Hanover Township
771
500
60.66%
39.34%

Henrietta Township
702
715
49.54%
50.46%

City of Jackson
3106
4501
40.83%
59.17%

Liberty Township
704
482
59.36%
40.64%

Napoleon Township
1178
1075
52.29%
47.71%

Parma Township
441
440
50.06%
49.94%

Pulaski Township
394
256
60.62%
39.38%

Rives Township
881
707
55.48%
44.52%

Sandstone Township
780
500
60.94%
39.06%

Spring Arbor Township
1848
803
69.71%
30.29%

Springport Township
325
267
54.90%
45.10%

Tompkins Township
446
386
53.61%
46.39%

Waterloo Township
469
455
50.76%
49.24%

TOTAL
31859
39245
44.81%
55.19%

Calhoun County is democrat, but it’s not THAT democrat. Not 61%. Even Obama couldn’t do what Schauer did, and 2002 was a good Republican year in Michigan outside of the governor’s race and US Senate race. Congress, AG, Sec of State, State House and State Senate were all positive that year. 2006 was a disaster all around. Don’t blame Fulton. She was thrown to the wolves. Here’s 2006. (I missed Athens Township from 02 in the Mortimer Race).

19th District
Fulton
Schauer
GOP%
Dem%

Calhoun County:

City of Albion
420
1691
19.90%
80.10%

Albion Township
198
291
40.49%
59.51%

Athens Township
420
489
46.20%
53.80%

City of Battle Creek
4848
10848
30.89%
69.11%

Bedford Township
1178
2323
33.65%
66.35%

Burlington Township
288
421
40.62%
59.38%

Clarence Township
387
441
46.74%
53.26%

Clarendon Township
191
237
44.63%
55.37%

Convis Township
279
353
44.15%
55.85%

Eckford Township
260
283
47.88%
52.12%

Emmett Township
1455
2728
34.78%
65.22%

Fredonia Township
283
438
39.25%
60.75%

Homer Township
391
439
47.11%
52.89%

Lee Township
193
244
44.16%
55.84%

Leroy Township
736
935
44.05%
55.95%

Marengo Township
333
467
41.63%
58.38%

City of Marshall
1011
1915
34.55%
65.45%

Marshall Township
619
892
40.97%
59.03%

Newton Township
446
778
36.44%
63.56%

Pennfield Township
1268
2162
36.97%
63.03%

Sheridan Township
233
424
35.46%
64.54%

Springfield City
334
887
27.35%
72.65%

Tekonsha Township
209
406
33.98%
66.02%

Jackson County:

Blackman Township
2406
3258
42.48%
57.52%

Columbia Township
1589
1770
47.31%
52.69%

Concord Township
534
505
51.40%
48.60%

Hanover Township
689
803
46.18%
53.82%

Henrietta Township
733
966
43.14%
56.86%

City of Jackson
2749
5792
32.19%
67.81%

Liberty Township
692
630
52.34%
47.66%

Napoleon Township
1099
1522
41.93%
58.07%

Parma Township
418
526
44.28%
55.72%

Pulaski Township
439
319
57.92%
42.08%

Rives Township
929
855
52.07%
47.93%

Sandstone Township
801
705
53.19%
46.81%

Spring Arbor Township
1752
1287
57.65%
42.35%

Springport Township
354
390
47.58%
52.42%

Tompkins Township
454
544
45.49%
54.51%

Waterloo Township
450
648
40.98%
59.02%

TOTAL
32068
50612
38.79%
61.21%

Those are the state rep and state senate races relevant to the district. For comparison’s sake, I’ll show the gubernatorial and presidential numbers as well. Here’s 2000.

19th District
Bush
Gore
GOP%
Dem%

Calhoun County:

City of Albion
784
2022
27.31%
70.43%

Albion Township
291
222
54.29%
41.42%

Athens Township
636
442
57.50%
39.96%

City of Battle Creek
8517
10235
44.28%
53.22%

Bedford Township
1905
2233
44.83%
52.55%

Burlington Township
426
311
55.98%
40.87%

Clarence Township
550
377
57.35%
39.31%

Clarendon Township
252
176
58.06%
40.55%

Convis Township
453
266
61.22%
35.95%

Eckford Township
381
256
59.16%
39.75%

Emmett Township
2518
2339
50.49%
46.90%

Fredonia Township
418
337
53.38%
43.04%

Homer Township
487
447
50.57%
46.42%

Lee Township
291
192
58.55%
38.63%

Leroy Township
927
697
55.64%
41.84%

Marengo Township
546
365
58.09%
38.83%

City of Marshall
1704
1605
49.52%
46.64%

Marshall Township
906
681
55.79%
41.93%

Newton Township
735
609
53.30%
44.16%

Pennfield Township
2202
1874
52.59%
44.76%

Sheridan Township
365
362
48.60%
48.20%

Springfield City
646
926
39.85%
57.13%

Tekonsha Township
349
338
49.64%
48.08%

Jackson County:

Blackman Township
3249
3202
49.26%
48.55%

Columbia Township
2077
1541
55.67%
41.30%

Concord Township
713
421
60.89%
35.95%

Hanover Township
980
665
58.51%
39.70%

Henrietta Township
927
798
52.17%
44.91%

City of Jackson
4259
6431
38.72%
58.46%

Liberty Township
845
546
59.17%
38.24%

Napoleon Township
1521
1477
49.30%
47.88%

Parma Township
586
497
51.72%
43.87%

Pulaski Township
473
313
58.18%
38.50%

Rives Township
1229
802
59.26%
38.67%

Sandstone Township
1023
576
62.61%
35.25%

Spring Arbor Township
2262
1032
67.36%
30.73%

Springport Township
441
330
55.13%
41.25%

Tompkins Township
652
485
56.40%
41.96%

Waterloo Township
598
561
49.42%
46.36%

TOTAL
48124
46989
49.25%
48.09%

Al Gore won Calhoun by 1000 votes. Bush beat Gore in Jackson County (as a whole) by 4000 votes. However, Summit Township, where Griffin did so well, also went for Bush by 1700 votes in 2000. Is that township not being in this district a Griffin or a GOP advantage in 2009? I don’t know. Leoni went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, but Grass Lake and Norvell Townships went for Bush twice. From a party-only standpoint, Removing those four township hurt the GOP. From a geographic standpoint, just the opposite as they helped Griffin. In the gubenatorial race of 02, here’s Posthumus vs Granholm. Schauer and Nofs also were on the ballot here. Griffin was not on the ballot.

19th District
Posthumus
Granholm
GOP%
Dem%

Calhoun County:

City of Albion
612
1502
28.54%
70.06%

Albion Township
228
185
54.29%
44.05%

Athens Township
474
376
55.18%
43.77%

City of Battle Creek
5843
7812
42.34%
56.60%

Bedford Township
1325
1671
43.85%
55.29%

Burlington Township
322
262
54.67%
44.48%

Clarence Township
427
288
59.31%
40.00%

Clarendon Township
187
115
61.72%
37.95%

Convis Township
318
245
56.18%
43.29%

Eckford Township
307
191
61.03%
37.97%

Emmett Township
1813
1903
48.26%
50.65%

Fredonia Township
323
288
52.35%
46.68%

Homer Township
386
337
52.73%
46.04%

Lee Township
215
141
59.72%
39.17%

Leroy Township
707
591
54.01%
45.15%

Marengo Township
403
302
56.76%
42.54%

City of Marshall
1243
1296
48.40%
50.47%

Marshall Township
666
571
53.54%
45.90%

Newton Township
536
514
50.76%
48.67%

Pennfield Township
1523
1522
49.48%
49.45%

Sheridan Township
286
292
48.89%
49.91%

Springfield City
389
641
37.44%
61.69%

Tekonsha Township
256
253
49.71%
49.13%

Jackson County:

Blackman Township
2446
2611
47.83%
51.06%

Columbia Township
1570
1242
55.20%
43.67%

Concord Township
513
354
58.49%
40.36%

Hanover Township
750
533
58.09%
41.29%

Henrietta Township
734
682
51.04%
47.43%

City of Jackson
3061
4540
39.67%
58.84%

Liberty Township
694
491
57.83%
40.92%

Napoleon Township
1114
1151
48.29%
49.89%

Parma Township
473
414
52.38%
45.85%

Pulaski Township
388
257
59.24%
39.24%

Rives Township
969
628
59.78%
38.74%

Sandstone Township
771
509
59.58%
39.34%

Spring Arbor Township
1776
888
66.15%
33.07%

Springport Township
355
242
58.87%
40.13%

Tompkins Township
481
355
56.46%
41.67%

Waterloo Township
500
431
52.52%
45.27%

TOTAL
35384
36626
48.57%
50.28%

Granholm won the district in 2002, even though Posthumus ran better overall in the state than Bush. I think the big reason is state workers. Jackson has or had at least a large number of people working in the prison system. A lot of commuters as well live in the district. Calhoun County is straight down I-69 from Lansing. Jackson is straight down US-127. Don’t forget the teachers and MEA. Even some of the social conservatives will go democrat in state races because of funding. This district remains close for the most part, but this district was more pro-Bush than it normally would be for a Republican in 2004. This is the high point for the GOP in this district. Bush actually won Calhoun County by 2200 votes , as well as Jackson County (all of it) by 9000 votes (2300 in Summit township, which Griffin barely lost that year). Bush didn’t hurt Nofs, and he probably beat Griffin, who wasn’t an unknown then as he was Jackson’s mayor.

19th District
Bush
Kerry
GOP%
Dem%

Calhoun County:

City of Albion
898
2174
28.94%
70.06%

Albion Township
336
265
55.17%
43.51%

Athens Township
784
499
60.68%
38.62%

City of Battle Creek
10314
11583
46.59%
52.32%

Bedford Township
2262
2264
49.40%
49.44%

Burlington Township
494
389
55.07%
43.37%

Clarence Township
640
376
62.26%
36.58%

Clarendon Township
335
221
59.71%
39.39%

Convis Township
500
355
57.21%
40.62%

Eckford Township
460
255
63.80%
35.37%

Emmett Township
3171
2508
55.29%
43.73%

Fredonia Township
532
372
57.83%
40.43%

Homer Township
653
474
57.38%
41.65%

Lee Township
339
214
60.75%
38.35%

Leroy Township
1297
773
62.33%
37.15%

Marengo Township
642
380
62.09%
36.75%

City of Marshall
2012
1713
53.50%
45.55%

Marshall Township
1098
723
59.74%
39.34%

Newton Township
889
621
58.33%
40.75%

Pennfield Township
2680
1969
56.86%
41.78%

Sheridan Township
428
394
51.20%
47.13%

Springfield City
877
1005
46.16%
52.89%

Tekonsha Township
454
364
54.70%
43.86%

Jackson County:

Blackman Township
4258
3454
54.69%
44.37%

Columbia Township
2532
1693
59.42%
39.73%

Concord Township
843
483
62.72%
35.94%

Hanover Township
1199
745
61.17%
38.01%

Henrietta Township
1196
952
55.06%
43.83%

City of Jackson
5257
7142
41.93%
56.97%

Liberty Township
1106
610
64.04%
35.32%

Napoleon Township
1893
1494
55.32%
43.66%

Parma Township
714
523
57.21%
41.91%

Pulaski Township
635
363
62.75%
35.87%

Rives Township
1464
809
63.62%
35.16%

Sandstone Township
1293
626
66.68%
32.28%

Spring Arbor Township
2763
1105
70.77%
28.30%

Springport Township
577
332
62.45%
35.93%

Tompkins Township
772
537
58.62%
40.77%

Waterloo Township
771
701
51.92%
47.21%

TOTAL
59368
51460
53.00%
45.94%

53% is damn good in this district, and that was by both narrowing the gap in Battle Creek, Springfield, and Jackson, and also racking up numbers in the townships. 2006 was ugly, as was 2008. Dick DeVos was wrongly painted as an outsourcer of jobs, but there was Bush fatigue and ugly corruption with many in leadership. 2008 was no different, with McCain quitting. This is a populist district, and while it is conservative, it is not republican by any stretch of the imagination. That’s particular true in the townships. Here’s 2006.

19th District
DeVos
Granholm
GOP%
Dem%

Calhoun County:

City of Albion
539
1606
24.83%
73.98%

Albion Township
245
256
48.32%
50.49%

Athens Township
459
467
49.14%
50.00%

City of Battle Creek
6069
9580
38.20%
60.30%

Bedford Township
1447
2057
40.67%
57.81%

Burlington Township
324
395
44.32%
54.04%

Clarence Township
445
405
51.56%
46.93%

Clarendon Township
215
222
48.75%
50.34%

Convis Township
312
327
47.71%
50.00%

Eckford Township
300
269
52.45%
47.03%

Emmett Township
1866
2334
43.85%
54.85%

Fredonia Township
311
422
41.86%
56.80%

Homer Township
423
428
48.96%
49.54%

Lee Township
249
204
54.01%
44.25%

Leroy Township
873
820
50.90%
47.81%

Marengo Township
420
390
50.85%
47.22%

City of Marshall
1299
1676
42.89%
55.33%

Marshall Township
751
789
48.20%
50.64%

Newton Township
565
666
45.38%
53.49%

Pennfield Township
1569
1875
44.84%
53.59%

Sheridan Township
296
365
43.92%
54.15%

Springfield City
461
761
37.03%
61.12%

Tekonsha Township
267
360
41.78%
56.34%

Jackson County:

Blackman Township
2772
3087
46.75%
52.06%

Columbia Township
1843
1659
51.92%
46.73%

Concord Township
598
492
54.02%
44.44%

Hanover Township
819
721
52.23%
45.98%

Henrietta Township
829
928
46.29%
51.81%

City of Jackson
3370
5381
37.89%
60.51%

Liberty Township
788
604
56.01%
42.93%

Napoleon Township
1319
1437
46.99%
51.19%

Parma Township
468
504
46.89%
50.50%

Pulaski Township
451
341
56.16%
42.47%

Rives Township
1039
849
54.26%
44.33%

Sandstone Township
924
662
57.46%
41.17%

Spring Arbor Township
1992
1154
62.74%
36.35%

Springport Township
422
352
53.15%
44.33%

Tompkins Township
523
523
48.92%
48.92%

Waterloo Township
511
633
43.94%
54.43%

TOTAL
38373
46001
44.80%
53.71%

That was bad, and so is 2008. Keep in mind that DeVos and McCain both won Summit Township which is in a different district, but was one of Griffin’s stronger areas. Here’s 08. Not quite as bad as 06, but close. 08 was more high democrat because of Albion, Battle Creek, and Jackson City which has more minorities. It wasn’t AS across the board as 06, but McCain won many of those areas which Bush won big by lower margins. Bush won Marshall twice, which is a key area here. Nofs did not represent Marshall as a state rep. Griffin can win if he wins that area. Here’s 08.

19th District
McCain
Obama
GOP%
Dem%

Calhoun County:

City of Albion
719
2584
21.51%
77.32%

Albion Township
301
283
51.02%
47.97%

Athens Township
660
564
52.51%
44.87%

City of Battle Creek
8916
13975
38.41%
60.21%

Bedford Township
2128
2583
44.37%
53.86%

Burlington Township
488
398
53.80%
43.88%

Clarence Township
547
439
54.48%
43.73%

Clarendon Township
315
231
56.25%
41.25%

Convis Township
439
357
53.73%
43.70%

Eckford Township
452
263
61.92%
36.03%

Emmett Township
2848
2840
49.28%
49.14%

Fredonia Township
471
392
53.16%
44.24%

Homer Township
516
561
46.70%
50.77%

Lee Township
300
220
56.07%
41.12%

Leroy Township
1289
885
58.48%
40.15%

Marengo Township
581
463
54.50%
43.43%

City of Marshall
1733
1931
46.51%
51.83%

Marshall Township
1074
807
56.08%
42.14%

Newton Township
886
647
56.72%
41.42%

Pennfield Township
2405
2218
51.01%
47.04%

Sheridan Township
412
390
49.70%
47.04%

Springfield City
689
1132
37.24%
61.19%

Tekonsha Township
357
398
45.71%
50.96%

Jackson County:

Blackman Township
3646
4204
45.65%
52.64%

Columbia Township
2265
2011
52.09%
46.25%

Concord Township
758
633
53.72%
44.86%

Hanover Township
1096
843
55.75%
42.88%

Henrietta Township
1161
1153
49.19%
48.86%

City of Jackson
4162
8856
31.47%
66.96%

Liberty Township
1015
713
57.70%
40.53%

Napoleon Township
1733
1712
49.32%
48.72%

Parma Township
629
618
49.37%
48.51%

Pulaski Township
579
405
57.67%
40.34%

Rives Township
1317
1005
55.34%
42.23%

Sandstone Township
1203
782
59.14%
38.45%

Spring Arbor Township
2460
1418
62.64%
36.11%

Springport Township
551
425
54.88%
42.33%

Tompkins Township
710
631
51.45%
45.72%

Waterloo Township
650
787
44.52%
53.90%

TOTAL
52461
60757
45.54%
52.74%

2008 is almost a reverse of 2004 Bush by percentage. It wasn’t quite the low watermark of 2006, but it damn well close. That’s why this special election is so important. This district mirrors much of America. You have industrial cities (Battle Creek, Jackson, Albion). You have a swing small town in middle America (Marshall). You have a conservative college anchoring Spring Arbor. You have a liberal college in Albion. You have a sizable minority population in Albion, Jackson, and Battle Creek. There are a lot of rural areas as well. None of the areas outside of Albion are uber-democrat. None of the areas outside of Spring Arbor are sizable and uber-Republican. It’s a populist district and leans right on social issues, but centrist to slightly left of center on economic issues. It does not trust big business. It doesn’t trust the federal government much either, but state government is a different story. Lansing isn’t far from here.

It will be a very interesting race, and while Virginia and New Jersey have the hype, this is one to watch as well. The 19th District mirrors America well, and its performance in this special election will turn some heads, no matter who wins.