“He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue! That’s the Chicago way” – The Untouchables
I’m not into the Chicago way, but I am Irish by blood, and we never stop fighting, either in politics or other matters. I’m not interested in online petitions. They are a waste of time. I’m interested in getting this damn thing modified and better yet repealed.
The problem with politics is patience and short memories. Most people don’t have any patience, or follow politics enough to have long memories. There is a way to repeal Obamacare, and it’s much harder than just having votes. It’s a long process, and it will take years. It took 10 years just for the ugly gun ban to expire, and that’s only with a sunset provision. Obamacare CAN be repealed, but it won’t be easy.
Assuming Obama will veto a repeal, it will take 67 senators, and 292 representatives to repeal this completely. It is unlikely there will be a repeal until at least 2012 if that punk Obama gets the firing he deserves. It will take a majority in congress for any good reforms to see the light of day in committee. In addition to that, we have redistricting in 2011 which redraws the congressional boundaries. In most states, the state legislature and governor draws the districts. I don’t like that system, but it is what it is, and we need to use that to our advantage.
Goal 1 – Take the committee chairs. Take the gavels away from Pelosi, Waxman, and company. That takes a majority.
Goal 2 – Take a fillibuster proof majority in the senate
Goal 3 – Take the presidency and/or veto proof majority
Goal 4 – Get rid of the damn thing, and a bunch of other bad laws passed over the last century.
What can we do now, here in 2010?
A. The obvious point, vote Republican in federal races. It doesn’t stop there though.
B. If you are in a swing state, a republican state, a republican county, or republican congressional district – fill out the census form. This is the quickest and easiest way to help. The more strength in Livingston County here, the more the borders contract in the district, as we don’t have to expand Mike’s district. This is about 2012. It does no good to take the house back in 2010, and lose it in 2012 with redistricting. Don’t boycott this in Michigan. The price may be Thad McCotter or Mike Rogers being redistricted out of a congressional seat.
C. Make sure republicans are elected in Gubernatorial, State Representative, and State Senatorial races. In 2010, all of them are up for election in Michigan. These races determine the 2012 congressional districts in redistricting.
D. Research. Find out the competitive seats, and send money or use time to help these candidates. Some people don’t have money. Others do. Some have some time that can be used for stuffing envelopes, walking doors, etc. All of that is important. Some are easier pickings than others. John Conyers for example is in a district that votes 85% democrat every year. The Gary Peters, Mark Schauer, and Bart Stupak districts voted for Bush. Don’t forget defense either. Thad McCotter had a close race in 2008, winning with 51%. He needs support as well.
E. Know the district. Some districts are bad for certain types of candidates. Scott Brown is the Massachusetts senator. He won’t be with us on everything, but it’s Massachusetts. We have to take what we can get there.
All of the house congressional elections are up in 2010. So are many senators. Here’s the senate races, all 36 of them. We need +9 to take control. I think there’s a good chance of that in 2012. 2010 it is a long shot.
Alabama – Richard Shelby – I don’t like him, and would like to see him primaried, but I’ll take his committee vote. He’s probably safe.
Alaska – Lisa Murkowski – I’d keep an eye on this one. Murkowski won with 48% last time.
Arizona – John McCain’s running again. He has a primary challenger in JD Hayworth. I’d rather see someone besides either of them, but if I have to pick one of the two, I’d reluctantly pick Hayworth.
Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln. She’s vulrunable and is one of the best shots for a pickup.
California – Barbara Boxer – Longshot, but possible. I just hope the nominee isn’t Carly Fiorina who ran Hewlett Packard into the ground.
Colorado – Michael Bennett – He was appointed after Ken Salazar left for an administration post in the Obama admin. This is a good chance for a pickup.
Connecticut – Chris Dodd is retiring. This is an open seat. It won’t be easy, but it’s worth a fight.
Delaware – Mike Castle isn’t my type of republican, but like Shelby, I’ll take his committee vote.
Florida – Marco Rubio has a good chance of wrapping up the primary here against stimulus loving Charlie Crist. He needs support in the general election as well.
Georgia – Johnny Isakson should be safe.
Hawaii – Daniel Inouye is probably safe, but if there is any year to battle the dems, this is it. He’s 86 years old this year.
Idaho – Mike Crapo – Safe
Illinois – Open seat as Roland Burris isn’t running. This is a possible pickup despite its democrat leanings. Between Blago’s troubles, Burris’s troubles, and the fact that the dems nominated a 34 year old banker with a questionable past, we have a shot here. Mark Kirk isn’t my favorite, but he won the primary, and I’ll take the committee vote, and right now, that’s the first step.
Indiana – Evan Bayh is retiring. This should be a pickup unless the GOP is stupid.
Iowa – Chuck Grassley is about as safe as one gets in Iowa, which is never safe for either party.
Kansas – Open seat. As long as the infighting isn’t too bad, we should keep this, whether Jerry Moran or Todd Tiahrt wins the primary.
Kentucky – Open seat as Jim Bunning is retiring. Keep an eye on this one. Kentucky isn’t as republican as one thinks once you get past the presidential level.
Louisiana – The question here is whether David Vitter cleaned up his troubles. If I’m Vitter, I’m making this election about Pelosi and Obama and Melancon. This will be tough.
Maryland – Barbara Mikulski is probably safe, but if there’s any year to fight, it’s this one.
Missouri – Roy Blunt vs Robin Carnahan. I’m not a Blunt fan, but I’m even less of a Carnahan fan. I’ll take his committee vote.
Nevada – Harry Reid is in big trouble.
New Hampshire – Judd Gregg is stepping down and this will be our toughest defense.
New York – Both Chuck Schumer and Kristen Gillibrand are up. I’ll like to see someone pick off one of these. It’s unlikely, but if any year is the year, this is it. Schumer is one of the brains behind the operations, so it’s worth a shot just to get him scared.
North Carolina – Richard Burr is up and has a tough defense. He won with 51% last time.
North Dakota – Byron Dorgan isn’t running. I wouldn’t take this seat for granted, but we need to make sure its ours.
Ohio – George Voinovich is retiring, and I’m not unhappy about that. Rob Portman is the likely nominee for the GOP. This will be a tough defense. Nothing in Ohio is easy.
Oklahoma – Tom Coburn should be safe.
Oregon – Ron Wyden is about as safe as it gets in Oregon, but that state isn’t unwinnable with the right candidate. Bush almost won it in 2000.
Pennsylvania – Arlen Sphincter, I mean Specter is getting double flanked. The dems are running Joe Stesak against him in the primary, and Pat Toomey (who won a democrat leaning seat himself) is showing he has more strength than the pundits thought. This needs to be a pickup
South Carolina – Jim DeMint should be safe.
South Dakota – John Thune may have a tough race, but should be safe unless Herseth runs.
Utah – Bob Bennett has primary troubles, but that seat should stay Republican.
Washington State – Patty Murray will be tough to beat, but this is the year to try. Slade Gorton won there a few times so it is possible to win there.
Wisconsin – Russ Feingold usually finds a way to survive, but now’s the time to go for it.
A veto override majority isn’t possible in 2010, but is there enough to take the senate? Possible. It’s worth a shot.
The house is a better shot. If we get the seats that went for Bush in 2000, let alone 2004, we get the house back. There’s dozens of districts that fit that profile, three of which here in Michigan. Gary Peters. Bart Stupak. Mark Schauer. Also off the top of my head in the Midwest. Three of them in Indiana. Joe Donnely. Brad Ellsworth’s open seat, and Baron Hill. In Ohio, Steve Driehaus, Charlie Wilson, Zach Space, Mary Jo Kilroy, and John Boccieri. That’s just in three states.
I can’t forget the state house and state senate side as well. Again, it goes to redistricting. We need to keep the state senate, and it won’t be easy. What should be:
St Senate (have 22-16 advantage)
St Senate 7 (Outer Wayne County)
St Senate 11 (Central and Northern Macomb)
St Senate 12 (NE Oakland, including Pontiac)
St Senate 13 (Eastern Oakland)
St Senate 17 (Monroe, part of Washtenaw and Jackson County)
St Senate 19 (Calhoun/Jackson Counties)
St Senate 20 (Kalamazoo, part of Van Buren)
St Senate 25 (Lapeer, St Clair)
St Senate 29 (Grand Rapids)
St Senate 34 (Muskegon and North of there)
St Senate 36 (Northeast Michigan)
Targets for pickup:
St Senate 6 (Livonia, Westland, Redford)
St Senate 10 (Sterling Heights, Roseville)
St Senate 26 (Eastern Genesee, North Central Oakland)
St Senate 31 (Thumb, Bay County)
St Senate 38 (UP, if Casperson runs)
St House (we need to win 13 seats, I listed 29 targets)
House 19 – Livonia
House 30 – Northern Sterling Heights
House 43 – Waterford
House 51 – Southern Genesee County
House 61 – Portage, Western Kalamazoo County
House 63 – Part of Kalamazoo and Calhoun Counties
House 71 – Most of Eaton County
House 78 – Southern Berrien County
House 80 – Van Buren County
House 81 – Most of St Clair County
House 85 – Shiawassee and part of Clinton County
House 94 – Rural Saginaw County
House 97 – Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, Rural Bay County.
House 99 – Isabella and part of Midland County
House 1 – Grosse Pointes, part of Detroit
House 20 – Plymouth
House 21 – Canton
House 23 – Far Downriver
House 24 – St Clair Shores, Harrison Twp
House 25 – North Warren (Had it as recently as 2000)
House 26 – Royal Oak (almost had it in 2004, shockingly)
House 31 – Clinton Twp, Mt Clemens
House 32 – Northern Macomb, pt of St Clair
House 37 – Farmington Hills (Rocky won there three times)
House 39 – Commerce, West Bloomfield (Dave Law and Marc Shulman won there)
House 52 – Western Washtenaw County
House 55 – Western Monroe County, part of Washtenaw County
House 56 – Eastern Monroe County
House 57 – Most of Lenawee County
House 64 – Part of Jackson County
House 65 – Part of Jackson County and part of Eaton County.
House 67 – Most of Ingham County outside East Lansing and Meridian Twp. Includes South Lansing.
House 70 – Montcalm and part of Ionia County
House 75 – Part of Grand Rapids
House 83 – Sanilac County and part of St Clair County
House 84 – Tuscola and Huron Counties
House 91 – Part of Muskegon County
House 101 – Leelanau, Benzie, Mason, and Manistee Counties
House 103 – Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco Counties
House 106 – Crawford, Oscoda, Alcona, Alpena, Montmorency, and Presque Isle Counties.
House 107 – Emmet, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties
House 108 – Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta Counties
House 110 – Western UP.
This in 2010 lays the groundwork for getting rid of that 2300+ page monstrosity known as Obamacare. It starts with redistricting, stopping the bleeding, and then taking the state legislatures and governorships, as well the US House and US Senate to get ready for 2012, and then getting rid of this crap in 2013.