Michigan’s 1st District – Congress
Incumbent – Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) – Not running for re-election
Years in office as of 2010 election – 18.
Cook District Numbers – R+3

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama – 50%
McCain – 48%
2004:
Bush – 53%
Kerry – 46%
2000:
Bush 52%
Gore 45%

The  1st District is the largest district in Michigan in terms of area. It covers all of the UP, and most of Northeastern Lower Michigan as well, along with a few other Northern Michigan Counties.

It covers:

The U.P. – Alger, Baraga, Chippewa, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, Luce, Mackinac, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, and Schoolcraft Counties.

Northern Michigan – Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Crawford, Emmet, Gladwin, Iosco, Montmorency, Ogemaw, Otsego, and Presque Isle Counties.

Bay County –  Beaver, Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Monitor (precinct 3,5), Mount Forest, Pinconning, and Williams Townships. Also the City of Auburn, City of Pinconning, and precinct 1 in the City of Midland (most of which is in Midland County) is included.

There are a lot of ticket splitting counties there. All of Stupak’s contests under the current borders have essentially been the same, so I’m going to nitpick all of them. His weakest showing was actually in the democrat year of 2008. That’s because his opponent was Tom Casperson, a former state rep, instead of Don Hooper who has low name ID. Stupak ran 15% ahead of Obama, instead of 20% ahead of John Kerry. That’s like going 12-4 in NFL football instead of 14-2 because you played the Vikings and Steelers instead of the Browns and Lions….and you’re still the 1980’s 49’ers.

The most recent election here was 2008. It was like the others in results, although Casperson, who comes from the same state rep district as Stupak, actually did the best this decade against Stupak. That was due to his reducing the loss in Delta County.

2008 Election
Casperson
Stupak
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

Alcona
2,183
4,003
139
6,325
-1820
34.51%
63.29%
-28.77%

Alger
1,594
3,054
68
4,716
-1460
33.80%
64.76%
-30.96%

Alpena
4,095
10,613
272
14,980
-6518
27.34%
70.85%
-43.51%

Antrim
5,510
7,721
378
13,609
-2211
40.49%
56.73%
-16.25%

Arenac
2,434
5,041
289
7,764
-2607
31.35%
64.93%
-33.58%

Baraga
1,224
2,352
54
3,630
-1128
33.72%
64.79%
-31.07%

Bay
4,980
10,448
589
16,017
-5468
31.09%
65.23%
-34.14%

Charlevoix
5,199
8,596
408
14,203
-3397
36.60%
60.52%
-23.92%

Cheboygan
4,282
9,139
276
13,697
-4857
31.26%
66.72%
-35.46%

Chippewa
4,460
11,710
362
16,532
-7250
26.98%
70.83%
-43.85%

Crawford
2,245
4,500
242
6,987
-2255
32.13%
64.41%
-32.27%

Delta
7,857
11,099
125
19,081
-3242
41.18%
58.17%
-16.99%

Dickinson
5,108
8,041
162
13,311
-2933
38.37%
60.41%
-22.03%

Emmet
6,933
10,353
489
17,775
-3420
39.00%
58.24%
-19.24%

Gladwin
4,488
7,880
460
12,828
-3392
34.99%
61.43%
-26.44%

Gogebic
1,974
5,998
212
8,184
-4024
24.12%
73.29%
-49.17%

Houghton
5,797
9,714
304
15,815
-3917
36.66%
61.42%
-24.77%

Iosco
3,898
9,649
340
13,887
-5751
28.07%
69.48%
-41.41%

Iron
1,825
4,269
73
6,167
-2444
29.59%
69.22%
-39.63%

Keweenaw
544
831
29
1,404
-287
38.75%
59.19%
-20.44%

Luce
892
1,767
59
2,718
-875
32.82%
65.01%
-32.19%

Mackinac
1,864
4,366
109
6,339
-2502
29.41%
68.88%
-39.47%

Marquette
8,853
23,550
616
33,019
-14697
26.81%
71.32%
-44.51%

Menominee
3,687
7,214
112
11,013
-3527
33.48%
65.50%
-32.03%

Montmorency
1,641
3,490
135
5,266
-1849
31.16%
66.27%
-35.11%

Ogemaw
3,088
6,963
317
10,368
-3875
29.78%
67.16%
-37.37%

Ontonagon
1,088
2,705
97
3,890
-1617
27.97%
69.54%
-41.57%

Oscoda
1,425
2,677
130
4,232
-1252
33.67%
63.26%
-29.58%

Otsego
4,505
7,632
271
12,408
-3127
36.31%
61.51%
-25.20%

Presque Isle
2,168
5,097
174
7,439
-2929
29.14%
68.52%
-39.37%

Schoolcraft
1,499
2,744
66
4,309
-1245
34.79%
63.68%
-28.89%

Total
107,340
213,216
7,357
327,913
-105876
32.73%
65.02%
-32.29%

Casperson’s best counties were Republican base counties outside of Delta County, which says much about Stupak’s crossover strength. What makes this district so difficult is that not only is it gigantic in area, it is very rural. Marquette County, by far the largest in population, had about 10% of the vote in the congressional election.  It’s not all that much different in the presidential races, which I’ll throw in.The largest portion is only 10% of the vote. There’s no dominating region, even if you split Yooper and Troll (in the district) regions. There isn’t a lot of difference anymore between “Yooper” and Northeastern “Trolls” in voting. 150,784 of the votes were Yoopers which went 51.90% for Obama and 46.19% for McCain (which I think is still lower than Dukakis, and much lower than Clinton). McCain won the Northern lower portion 49.64% to 48.47%. Much of the wins are from the portions of the district closer to Lake Michigan than Lake Huron (Emmett, Otsego, Antrim Counties)

2008 Election
McCain
Obama
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

Alcona
3,404
2,896
120
6,420
508
53.02%
45.11%
7.91%

Alger
2,188
2,472
87
4,747
-284
46.09%
52.07%
-5.98%

Alpena
7,125
7,705
255
15,085
-580
47.23%
51.08%
-3.84%

Antrim
7,506
6,079
267
13,852
1427
54.19%
43.89%
10.30%

Arenac
3,807
4,155
166
8,128
-348
46.84%
51.12%
-4.28%

Baraga
1,846
1,725
73
3,644
121
50.66%
47.34%
3.32%

Bay
0
0
0

0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Charlevoix
7,306
6,817
244
14,367
489
50.85%
47.45%
3.40%

Cheboygan
6,920
6,720
261
13,901
200
49.78%
48.34%
1.44%

Chippewa
8,267
8,184
257
16,708
83
49.48%
48.98%
0.50%

Crawford
3,561
3,441
176
7,178
120
49.61%
47.94%
1.67%

Delta
8,763
9,974
329
19,066
-1211
45.96%
52.31%
-6.35%

Dickinson
7,049
5,995
267
13,311
1054
52.96%
45.04%
7.92%

Emmet
9,314
8,515
320
18,149
799
51.32%
46.92%
4.40%

Gladwin
6,391
6,590
145
13,126
-199
48.69%
50.21%
-1.52%

Gogebic
3,330
4,757
177
8,264
-1427
40.30%
57.56%
-17.27%

Houghton
8,101
7,476
365
15,942
625
50.82%
46.89%
3.92%

Iosco
6,583
7,309
295
14,187
-726
46.40%
51.52%
-5.12%

Iron
2,947
3,080
135
6,162
-133
47.83%
49.98%
-2.16%

Keweenaw
756
610
44
1,410
146
53.62%
43.26%
10.35%

Luce
1490
1,191
59
2,740
299
54.38%
43.47%
10.91%

Mackinac
3,268
3,027
38
6,333
241
51.60%
47.80%
3.81%

Marquette
12,906
19,635
634
33,175
-6729
38.90%
59.19%
-20.28%

Menominee
4,855
5,981
236
11,072
-1126
43.85%
54.02%
-10.17%

Montmorency
2,841
2,403
116
5,360
438
53.00%
44.83%
8.17%

Ogemaw
5,133
5,391
244
10,768
-258
47.67%
50.07%
-2.40%

Ontonagon
1,823
1,966
96
3,885
-143
46.92%
50.60%
-3.68%

Oscoda
2,320
1,887
121
4,328
433
53.60%
43.60%
10.00%

Otsego
6,752
5,634
230
12,616
1118
53.52%
44.66%
8.86%

Presque Isle
3,606
3,722
177
7,505
-116
48.05%
49.59%
-1.55%

Schoolcraft
2,058
2,184
83
4,325
-126
47.58%
50.50%
-2.91%

Bay County:

City of Auburn
590
591
15
1,196
-1
49.33%
49.41%
-0.08%

Beaver Twp
796
744
26
1,566
52
50.83%
47.51%
3.32%

Fraser Twp
715
1,006
32
1,753
-291
40.79%
57.39%
-16.60%

Garfield Twp
425
500
13
938
-75
45.31%
53.30%
-8.00%

Gibson Twp
239
294
14
547
-55
43.69%
53.75%
-10.05%

Kawkawlin Twp
1,187
1,391
52
2,630
-204
45.13%
52.89%
-7.76%

City of Midland (1)
22
41
1
64
-19
34.38%
64.06%
-29.69%

Monitor Twp (3)
650
520
20
1,190
130
54.62%
43.70%
10.92%

Monitor Twp (5)
619
644
20
1,283
-25
48.25%
50.19%
-1.95%

Mount Forest Twp
342
383
22
747
-41
45.78%
51.27%
-5.49%

City of Pinconning
200
378
11
589
-178
33.96%
64.18%
-30.22%

Pinconning Twp
614
700
22
1,336
-86
45.96%
52.40%
-6.44%

Portsmouth Twp
855
1,108
25
1,988
-253
43.01%
55.73%
-12.73%

Williams Twp
1,404
1,331
54
2,789
73
50.34%
47.72%
2.62%

Total
160,874
167,152
6,344
334,370
-6278
48.11%
49.99%
-1.88%

That was the 08, which was a big swing from the 04 and 00 elections, where Bush won this district quite easily. 08 was Obama’s year, and this is no different. The Western UP (Wisconsin area) returned to the democrat roots, and Marquette was even more democrat than usual. Even still, Obama could not quite break the 50% barrier due to 3rd party votes. While Obama won big in Bay County overall, he was held to 51.74% in this portion of the county. This part of Bay County does not have Bay City.

The other big dem year recently was 06. There are a large number of state workers in the 1st district. Mostly in corrections or the DNR (you can almost throw in MEA as well, but they are strong statewide). While the numbers in the end statewide were similar between Granholm 06 and Obama 08, a closer look shows that is not the case by district. Much as Bush 00 and Posthumus 02’s numbers were similar statewide, but different by district. Obama’s win was due more to the minority votes and a major swing in the west side. DeVos was whacked more in rural areas in general. Democrats always do better in the 1st district in gubernatorial years as well. This was no different. Granholm outpaced Obama in a big way.

2006 Election
DeVos
Granholm
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

Alcona
2,583
2,793
88
5,464
-210
47.27%
51.12%
-3.84%

Alger
1,422
2,285
59
3,766
-863
37.76%
60.67%
-22.92%

Alpena
4,689
7,187
154
12,030
-2498
38.98%
59.74%
-20.76%

Antrim
6,115
5,103
170
11,388
1012
53.70%
44.81%
8.89%

Arenac
2,805
3,737
102
6,644
-932
42.22%
56.25%
-14.03%

Baraga
1,220
1,952
59
3,231
-732
37.76%
60.41%
-22.66%

Bay
0
0


0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Charlevoix
5,621
5,237
268
11,126
384
50.52%
47.07%
3.45%

Cheboygan
5,891
5,457
212
11,560
434
50.96%
47.21%
3.75%

Chippewa
5,564
7,463
184
13,211
-1899
42.12%
56.49%
-14.37%

Crawford
2,765
2,932
106
5,803
-167
47.65%
50.53%
-2.88%

Delta
5,973
8,792
180
14,945
-2819
39.97%
58.83%
-18.86%

Dickinson
4,372
5,251
145
9,768
-879
44.76%
53.76%
-9.00%

Emmet
7,442
6,401
228
14,071
1041
52.89%
45.49%
7.40%

Gladwin
4,962
5,588
211
10,761
-626
46.11%
51.93%
-5.82%

Gogebic
2,216
3,821
124
6,161
-1605
35.97%
62.02%
-26.05%

Houghton
5,275
6,497
200
11,972
-1222
44.06%
54.27%
-10.21%

Iosco
5,006
6,043
172
11,221
-1037
44.61%
53.85%
-9.24%

Iron
1,914
2,843
81
4,838
-929
39.56%
58.76%
-19.20%

Keweenaw
507
632
22
1,161
-125
43.67%
54.44%
-10.77%

Luce
789
1,495
28
2,312
-706
34.13%
64.66%
-30.54%

Mackinac
2,540
2,879
64
5,483
-339
46.33%
52.51%
-6.18%

Marquette
7,773
16,341
291
24,405
-8568
31.85%
66.96%
-35.11%

Menominee
3,397
4,114
157
7,668
-717
44.30%
53.65%
-9.35%

Montmorency
2,394
2,128
89
4,611
266
51.92%
46.15%
5.77%

Ogemaw
4,109
4,561
143
8,813
-452
46.62%
51.75%
-5.13%

Ontonagon
1,318
1,782
48
3,148
-464
41.87%
56.61%
-14.74%

Oscoda
1,850
1,638
65
3,553
212
52.07%
46.10%
5.97%

Otsego
5,644
4,465
168
10,277
1179
54.92%
43.45%
11.47%

Presque Isle
2,775
3,515
91
6,381
-740
43.49%
55.09%
-11.60%

Schoolcraft
1,395
1,973
58
3,426
-578
40.72%
57.59%
-16.87%

Bay County:

City of Auburn
443
552
10
1,005
-109
44.08%
54.93%
-10.85%

Beaver Twp
579
697
18
1,294
-118
44.74%
53.86%
-9.12%

Fraser Twp
488
958
25
1,471
-470
33.17%
65.13%
-31.95%

Garfield Twp
272
480
25
777
-208
35.01%
61.78%
-26.77%

Gibson Twp
183
251
9
443
-68
41.31%
56.66%
-15.35%

Kawkawlin Twp
860
1,247
36
2,143
-387
40.13%
58.19%
-18.06%

City of Midland (1)
22
23
1
46
-1
47.83%
50.00%
-2.17%

Monitor Twp (3)
456
494
12
962
-38
47.40%
51.35%
-3.95%

Monitor Twp (5)
431
539
9
979
-108
44.02%
55.06%
-11.03%

Mount Forest Twp
273
336
4
613
-63
44.54%
54.81%
-10.28%

City of Pinconning
182
306
7
495
-124
36.77%
61.82%
-25.05%

Pinconning Twp
436
649
13
1,098
-213
39.71%
59.11%
-19.40%

Portsmouth Twp
623
1,092
26
1,741
-469
35.78%
62.72%
-26.94%

Williams Twp
1,026
1,245
33
2,304
-219
44.53%
54.04%
-9.51%

Total
116,600
143,774
4,195
264,569
-27174
44.07%
54.34%
-10.27%

Compare these to 2004 (Bush/Kerry), 2002 (Posthumus), and 2000 (Bush/Gore) at the top of the ticket.

2004 was the high water mark. Can you ask for a better opponent than John Kerry? I knew that was won (nationally) as soon as he won the nomination. I wasn’t laughing at Dean or Edwards though. Bush won all the counties except Alger, Arenac, Gogebic, Marquette, and the portion of Bay County in the district which he lost 50.48%-48.51%. Bush won the district by 7.69% margin.

2004 Election
Bush
Kerry
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

Alcona
3,592
2,871
68
6,531
721
55.00%
43.96%
11.04%

Alger
2,318
2,395
52
4,765
-77
48.65%
50.26%
-1.62%

Alpena
7,665
7,407
139
15,211
258
50.39%
48.70%
1.70%

Antrim
8,379
5,072
168
13,619
3307
61.52%
37.24%
24.28%

Arenac
4,071
4,076
69
8,216
-5
49.55%
49.61%
-0.06%

Baraga
1,977
1,660
47
3,684
317
53.66%
45.06%
8.60%

Bay
0
0


0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Charlevoix
8,214
5,729
196
14,139
2485
58.09%
40.52%
17.58%

Cheboygan
7,798
5,941
138
13,877
1857
56.19%
42.81%
13.38%

Chippewa
9,122
7,203
163
16,488
1919
55.33%
43.69%
11.64%

Crawford
4,017
3,126
92
7,235
891
55.52%
43.21%
12.32%

Delta
9,680
9,381
177
19,238
299
50.32%
48.76%
1.55%

Dickinson
7,734
5,650
166
13,550
2084
57.08%
41.70%
15.38%

Emmet
10,332
6,846
204
17,382
3486
59.44%
39.39%
20.06%

Gladwin
6,770
6,343
114
13,227
427
51.18%
47.95%
3.23%

Gogebic
3,935
4,421
86
8,442
-486
46.61%
52.37%
-5.76%

Houghton
8,889
6,731
231
15,851
2158
56.08%
42.46%
13.61%

Iosco
7,301
6,557
148
14,006
744
52.13%
46.82%
5.31%

Iron
3,224
3,215
72
6,511
9
49.52%
49.38%
0.14%

Keweenaw
781
630
28
1,439
151
54.27%
43.78%
10.49%

Luce
1749
1,045
35
2,829
704
61.82%
36.94%
24.89%

Mackinac
3,706
2,819
84
6,609
887
56.08%
42.65%
13.42%

Marquette
14,690
17,412
386
32,488
-2722
45.22%
53.60%
-8.38%

Menominee
5,942
5,326
151
11,419
616
52.04%
46.64%
5.39%

Montmorency
3,300
2,196
67
5,563
1104
59.32%
39.48%
19.85%

Ogemaw
5,454
5,215
127
10,796
239
50.52%
48.30%
2.21%

Ontonagon
2,262
1,863
67
4,192
399
53.96%
44.44%
9.52%

Oscoda
2,570
1,792
47
4,409
778
58.29%
40.64%
17.65%

Otsego
7,470
4,674
163
12,307
2796
60.70%
37.98%
22.72%

Presque Isle
3,982
3,432
102
7,516
550
52.98%
45.66%
7.32%

Schoolcraft
2,267
2,137
37
4,441
130
51.05%
48.12%
2.93%

Bay County:

City of Auburn
641
537
7
1,185
104
54.09%
45.32%
8.78%

Beaver Twp
792
691
16
1,499
101
52.84%
46.10%
6.74%

Fraser Twp
768
992
11
1,771
-224
43.37%
56.01%
-12.65%

Garfield Twp
391
542
15
948
-151
41.24%
57.17%
-15.93%

Gibson Twp
261
293
5
559
-32
46.69%
52.42%
-5.72%

Kawkawlin Twp
1,271
1,377
25
2,673
-106
47.55%
51.52%
-3.97%

City of Midland (1)
10
28
0
38
-18
26.32%
73.68%
-47.37%

Monitor Twp (3)
474
333
7
814
141
58.23%
40.91%
17.32%

Monitor Twp (5)
434
377
13
824
57
52.67%
45.75%
6.92%

Mount Forest Twp
337
401
15
753
-64
44.75%
53.25%
-8.50%

City of Pinconning
249
377
9
635
-128
39.21%
59.37%
-20.16%

Pinconning Twp
628
686
12
1,326
-58
47.36%
51.73%
-4.37%

Portsmouth Twp
912
1,089
17
2,018
-177
45.19%
53.96%
-8.77%

Williams Twp
1,446
1,240
27
2,713
206
53.30%
45.71%
7.59%

Total
177,805
152,128
3,803
333,736
25677
53.28%
45.58%
7.69%

2002 was a year of what could have been if the idiot pundits (excluding myself since I actually thought Posthumus could win) didn’t concede the race before it began. Posthumus won the district, which is surprising for a state level candidate. It was close. He won with 50.07% of the vote, and it was strictly on lower Michigan votes. The UP’s historical democrat leanings are still strong in state level races.

2002 Election
Posthumus
Granholm
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

Alcona
2,387
2,165
35
4,587
222
52.04%
47.20%
4.84%

Alger
1,623
1,855
49
3,527
-232
46.02%
52.59%
-6.58%

Alpena
4,722
6,391
110
11,223
-1669
42.07%
56.95%
-14.87%

Antrim
5,576
3,752
129
9,457
1824
58.96%
39.67%
19.29%

Arenac
2,611
2,821
74
5,506
-210
47.42%
51.24%
-3.81%

Baraga
1,170
1,263
47
2,480
-93
47.18%
50.93%
-3.75%

Bay
0
0


0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Charlevoix
5,608
3,836
173
9,617
1772
58.31%
39.89%
18.43%

Cheboygan
5,268
4,107
112
9,487
1161
55.53%
43.29%
12.24%

Chippewa
5,357
5,428
113
10,898
-71
49.16%
49.81%
-0.65%

Crawford
2,566
2,233
93
4,892
333
52.45%
45.65%
6.81%

Delta
6,590
6,862
172
13,624
-272
48.37%
50.37%
-2.00%

Dickinson
4,358
3,882
113
8,353
476
52.17%
46.47%
5.70%

Emmet
7,111
4,330
212
11,653
2781
61.02%
37.16%
23.87%

Gladwin
4,569
4,350
112
9,031
219
50.59%
48.17%
2.42%

Gogebic
2,308
3,292
86
5,686
-984
40.59%
57.90%
-17.31%

Houghton
5,119
5,026
205
10,350
93
49.46%
48.56%
0.90%

Iosco
4,817
5,031
151
9,999
-214
48.17%
50.32%
-2.14%

Iron
2,017
2,429
93
4,539
-412
44.44%
53.51%
-9.08%

Keweenaw
545
482
21
1,048
63
52.00%
45.99%
6.01%

Luce
889
1,016
39
1,944
-127
45.73%
52.26%
-6.53%

Mackinac
2,425
2,206
35
4,666
219
51.97%
47.28%
4.69%

Marquette
8,906
12,779
465
22,150
-3873
40.21%
57.69%
-17.49%

Menominee
3,576
3,335
124
7,035
241
50.83%
47.41%
3.43%

Montmorency
2,231
1,722
57
4,010
509
55.64%
42.94%
12.69%

Ogemaw
3,689
3,727
107
7,523
-38
49.04%
49.54%
-0.51%

Ontonagon
1,334
1,301
54
2,689
33
49.61%
48.38%
1.23%

Oscoda
1,669
1,242
58
2,969
427
56.21%
41.83%
14.38%

Otsego
4,982
3,346
145
8,473
1636
58.80%
39.49%
19.31%

Presque Isle
2,862
2,717
64
5,643
145
50.72%
48.15%
2.57%

Schoolcraft
1,468
1,707
49
3,224
-239
45.53%
52.95%
-7.41%

Bay County:

City of Auburn
441
372
5
818
69
53.91%
45.48%
8.44%

Beaver Twp
547
472
22
1,041
75
52.55%
45.34%
7.20%

Fraser Twp
522
657
15
1,194
-135
43.72%
55.03%
-11.31%

Garfield Twp
302
311
9
622
-9
48.55%
50.00%
-1.45%

Gibson Twp
187
169
5
361
18
51.80%
46.81%
4.99%

Kawkawlin Twp
914
963
22
1,899
-49
48.13%
50.71%
-2.58%

City of Midland (1)
9
5
0
14
4
64.29%
35.71%
28.57%

Monitor Twp (3)
394
270
2
666
124
59.16%
40.54%
18.62%

Monitor Twp (5)
321
293
5
619
28
51.86%
47.33%
4.52%

Mount Forest Twp
242
215
13
470
27
51.49%
45.74%
5.74%

City of Pinconning
176
240
10
426
-64
41.31%
56.34%
-15.02%

Pinconning Twp
428
437
11
876
-9
48.86%
49.89%
-1.03%

Portsmouth Twp
617
774
21
1,412
-157
43.70%
54.82%
-11.12%

Williams Twp
964
810
32
1,806
154
53.38%
44.85%
8.53%

Total
114,417
110,621
3,469
228,507
3796
50.07%
48.41%
1.66%

2000 was the start of a change in Northern Michigan from it’s democrat swing in the 1990’s. Bush won the UP, which I’m not sure his dad was able to even do. I think the UP may have gone to Dukakis, although I’m not certain.

2000 Election
Bush
Gore
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

Alcona
3,152
2,696
149
5,997
456
52.56%
44.96%
7.60%

Alger
2,142
2,071
153
4,366
71
49.06%
47.43%
1.63%

Alpena
6,769
7,053
310
14,132
-284
47.90%
49.91%
-2.01%

Antrim
6,780
4,329
438
11,547
2451
58.72%
37.49%
21.23%

Arenac
3,421
3,685
161
7,267
-264
47.08%
50.71%
-3.63%

Baraga
1,836
1,400
157
3,393
436
54.11%
41.26%
12.85%

Bay
0
0


0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Charlevoix
7,018
4,958
511
12,487
2060
56.20%
39.71%
16.50%

Cheboygan
6,815
5,484
318
12,617
1331
54.01%
43.47%
10.55%

Chippewa
7,526
6,370
458
14,354
1156
52.43%
44.38%
8.05%

Crawford
3,345
2,790
221
6,356
555
52.63%
43.90%
8.73%

Delta
8,871
7,970
472
17,313
901
51.24%
46.03%
5.20%

Dickinson
6,932
5,533
367
12,832
1399
54.02%
43.12%
10.90%

Emmet
8,602
5,451
658
14,711
3151
58.47%
37.05%
21.42%

Gladwin
5,743
5,573
313
11,629
170
49.39%
47.92%
1.46%

Gogebic
3,929
4,066
344
8,339
-137
47.12%
48.76%
-1.64%

Houghton
7,895
5,688
633
14,216
2207
55.54%
40.01%
15.52%

Iosco
6,345
6,505
372
13,222
-160
47.99%
49.20%
-1.21%

Iron
2,967
3,014
207
6,188
-47
47.95%
48.71%
-0.76%

Keweenaw
740
540
63
1,343
200
55.10%
40.21%
14.89%

Luce
1480
956
100
2,536
524
58.36%
37.70%
20.66%

Mackinac
3,272
2,533
165
5,970
739
54.81%
42.43%
12.38%

Marquette
12,577
15,503
1099
29,179
-2926
43.10%
53.13%
-10.03%

Menominee
5,529
4,597
308
10,434
932
52.99%
44.06%
8.93%

Montmorency
2,750
2,139
120
5,009
611
54.90%
42.70%
12.20%

Ogemaw
4,706
4,896
253
9,855
-190
47.75%
49.68%
-1.93%

Ontonagon
2,472
1,514
165
4,151
958
59.55%
36.47%
23.08%

Oscoda
2,207
1,677
108
3,992
530
55.29%
42.01%
13.28%

Otsego
6,108
4,034
363
10,505
2074
58.14%
38.40%
19.74%

Presque Isle
3,660
3,242
178
7,080
418
51.69%
45.79%
5.90%

Schoolcraft
2,088
2,036
77
4,201
52
49.70%
48.46%
1.24%

Bay County:

City of Auburn
551
488
26
1,065
63
51.74%
45.82%
5.92%

Beaver Twp
664
618
35
1,317
46
50.42%
46.92%
3.49%

Fraser Twp
698
837
34
1,569
-139
44.49%
53.35%
-8.86%

Garfield Twp
347
431
17
795
-84
43.65%
54.21%
-10.57%

Gibson Twp
232
236
9
477
-4
48.64%
49.48%
-0.84%

Kawkawlin Twp
1,104
1,194
52
2,350
-90
46.98%
50.81%
-3.83%

City of Midland (1)
17
31
0
48
-14
35.42%
64.58%
-29.17%

Monitor Twp (3)
413
332
4
749
81
55.14%
44.33%
10.81%

Monitor Twp (5)
373
362
17
752
11
49.60%
48.14%
1.46%

Mount Forest Twp
308
305
14
627
3
49.12%
48.64%
0.48%

City of Pinconning
239
323
10
572
-84
41.78%
56.47%
-14.69%

Pinconning Twp
541
566
25
1,132
-25
47.79%
50.00%
-2.21%

Portsmouth Twp
749
1,036
45
1,830
-287
40.93%
56.61%
-15.68%

Williams Twp
1,181
1,034
46
2,261
147
52.23%
45.73%
6.50%

Total
155,094
136,096
9,575
300,765
18998
51.57%
45.25%
6.32%

The farm club here is vast because of the geography, with democrats having a big advantage with Northern Michigan districts.

St. Senate 38 – Alger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keewenaw, Luce, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, and Schoolcraft counties. Prusi is termed out.

St Senate 38th
GOP
Dem

06 – Mackin/Prusi
27974
66307

94,281
-38333
29.67%
70.33%
-40.66%

02 – Schoenow/Prusi
33063
51348

84,411
-18285
39.17%
60.83%
-21.66%

St. Senate 37 – Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Mackinac, and Presque Isle counties. Grand Traverse County is not in the 1st district, and I believe Jason Allen is from that county.

St Senate 37th
GOP
Dem

06 – Allen/Unger
63,479
43,476

106,955
20003
59.35%
40.65%
18.70%

02 – Allen/Estes
53,490
35,852

89,342
17638
59.87%
40.13%
19.74%

St. Senate 36 – Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Gladwin, Iosco, Midland, Montmorency, Ogemaw, and Otsego counties. Tony Stamas is from Midland which is not in the 1st District, but one of the anchors of the 4th district. Andy Neumann, Stamas’s opponent from 02, is from Alpena and in the district. He’s rumored to be running again for this district in 2010.

St Senate 35th
GOP
Dem

06 – Stamas/Reid
65,079
39,757
18
104,854
25322
62.07%
37.92%
24.15%

02 – Stamas/Neumann
46,511
44,487

90,998
2024
51.11%
48.89%
2.22%

St. Senate 31 – Arenac, Bay, Huron, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties. Only Arenac, and part of Bay County is in the district. Jim Barcia I believe is from Bay City, but he represented part of the 1st in his old 5th District.

St Senate 31st
GOP
Dem

06 – Nuncio/Barcia
23,569
78,923
1441
103,933
-55354
22.68%
75.94%
-53.26%

02 – Green/Barcia
35,486
54,352

89,838
-18866
39.50%
60.50%
-21.00%

St Rep 110 – Baraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, and Ontonagon Counties. Powell Township in Marquette County is also in this district. A similar district was close in 2000, but it has been solid democrat since. I’m not sure it has gone Republican since the pre-mining days. It’s winnable and went for Bush twice, but only in a real good year at a state rep level. This is still Joe Mack country.

St Rep 110th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

08 – Larson/Lahti
11,302
26,995

38,297
-15693
29.51%
70.49%
-40.98%

06 – Schmidt/Lahti
10,357
19,361
820
30,538
-9004
33.92%
63.40%
-29.48%

04 – Ashcraft/Brown
9,845
26,754
2607
39,206
-16909
25.11%
68.24%
-43.13%

02 – Fay/Brown
7,812
18,544

26,356
-10732
29.64%
70.36%
-40.72%

St Rep 109th – Alger, Luce, most of Marquette County, and Schoolcraft County – This is the most democrat district in the UP. John Kerry won this district which is anchored by Marquette, the largest city and county in the 1st district (as Bay City is in the 5th).

St Rep 109th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

08 – Takalo/Lindberg
12,444
26,766
2870
42,080
-14322
29.57%
63.61%
-34.04%

06 – Westrom/Lindberg
10,508
21,428

31,936
-10920
32.90%
67.10%
-34.19%

04 – Kaltenbach/Adamini
13,760
28,081

41,841
-14321
32.89%
67.11%
-34.23%

02 – Hafeman/Adamini
8,954
20,396

29,350
-11442
30.51%
69.49%
-38.98%

St. Rep 108th – Delta, Dickinson, and Menominee Counties. This district was democrat until Casperson won it in 2002 in an upset over Laurie Stupak (Bart’s wife).  Bush won it twice (as he did the Green Bay area in Wisconsin), but it returned to its roots in 2008 at the state level. Obama also did well in the “Wisconsin” part of the UP, as he did in Green Bay, despite being a “FIB.” I’ll say the I in “FIB” stands for Illinois, and I’ll let you figure out the F and B portions…

St Rep 108th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

08 – Falcon/Nerat
18,350
23,800

42,150
-5450
43.53%
56.47%
-12.93%

06 – Casperson/Nerat
17,817
14,298

32,115
3519
55.48%
44.52%
10.96%

04 – Casperson/Baldinetti
29,727
13,635

43,362
16092
68.56%
31.44%
37.11%

02 – Casperson/Stupak
15,009
13,982

28,991
1027
51.77%
48.23%
3.54%

St. Rep 107th – Koehler and Tuscarora Townships in Cheboygan County, Chippewa, Emmet, and Mackinac Counties. This district was GOP until Gary McDowell upset Walt North in 2004. North was a former State Senator who made a fatal vote as he stepped down. He was the deciding vote against legalizing the hunting of mourning doves. The NRA gave him an F rating (surprised me since he voted for CCW) over than one vote and endorsed McDowell (which I didn’t have a problem with at all – SAFR also endorsed McDowell, but gave North a mixed rating). McDowell is now termed out, and this should be a good pickup opportunity for the GOP, as long as they don’t run someone unacceptable to the NRA, Right to Life, or Farm Bureau.

St Rep 107th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

08 – Strobehn/McDowell
14,500
27,304

41,804
-12804
34.69%
65.31%
-30.63%

06 – Duggan/McDowell
13,810
20,267

34,077
-6457
40.53%
59.47%
-18.95%

04 – North/McDowell
19,353
22,293

41,646
-2940
46.47%
53.53%
-7.06%

02 – Shackleton/McDowell
19,514
8,963

28,477
10551
68.53%
31.47%
37.05%

St Rep 106th – Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle counties.
This is democrat leaning with Alpena anchoring the district, although it is competitive when it is open. Andy Neumann is termed out in 2010. He ran for State Senate in 2002 and lost a close race, and came back when his old seat opened up in 2008. Matt Gillard had the seat for 3 terms in between the Neumann stints.

St Rep 106th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

08 – Pettalia/Neumann
19,620
23,089
1353
44,062
-3469
44.53%
52.40%
-7.87%

06 – Viegelahn/Gillard
12,846
23,703

36,549
-10857
35.15%
64.85%
-29.71%

04 – Fortier/Gillard
18,498
25,834

44,332
-7336
41.73%
58.27%
-16.55%

02 – Wyman/Gillard
15,984
16,450

32,434
-466
49.28%
50.72%
-1.44%

St. Rep 105th – Antrim, Charlevoix, Most of Cheboygan, and Otsego Counties.
The 105th is a solid GOP district, although primaries there can be vicious. (2002, and probably 2010) This seat opens up again in 2010, and several people are likely running for it.

St Rep 105th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

08 – Elsenheimer/Saltonstall
30,568
18,455
1354
50,377
12113
60.68%
36.63%
24.04%

06 – Elsenheimer/Bauer
26,291
14,635

40,926
11656
64.24%
35.76%
28.48%

04 – Elsenheimer/McKinney
30,765
18,644

49,409
12121
62.27%
37.73%
24.53%

02 – Bradstreet/Webster
21,609
12,203

33,812
9406
63.91%
36.09%
27.82%

St Rep 103rd – Iosco, Missaukee, Ogemaw, and Roscommon counties.

It’s a swing district if someone not named Sheltrown is not running. Missaukee is usually the 2nd most GOP county in the state. The other three are competitive but have some democrat leanings. Ogemaw County is probably the most democrat of the bunch. Sheltrown is termed out, although it may be kept in the family if there’s another family member running. Joel Sheltrown took over for his brother Dale Sheltrown. Missaukee and Roscommon Counties are not in the 1st district. Ogemaw and Iosco Counties are.

St Rep 103rd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

08 – Ryan/Sheltrown
15,003
29,927

44,930
-14924
33.39%
66.61%
-33.22%

06 – Moore/Sheltrown
11,468
25,155

36,623
-13687
31.31%
68.69%
-37.37%

04 – Rendon/Sheltrown
19,648
25,535

45,183
-5887
43.49%
56.51%
-13.03%

02 – Carlson/Sheltrown
13,457
18,571

32,028
-5114
42.02%
57.98%
-15.97%

St Rep 97th – Arenac, Clare, and Gladwin Counties. Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Mount Forest, and Pinconning Townships, and the city of Pinconning.

This seat flipped once after its creation in 2002. It went Democrat as an open seat, but flipped to the GOP in 2004 after the democrat voted against a gay marriage ban. It’s a social conservative district, although quite populist and has some democrat leanings. Clare is not in the 1st district, although the rest of the district is in the 1st. Tim Moore is in Clare County, so he’s in the 4th district. This will be a tossup seat in 2010 as Moore is termed out.

St Rep 97th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

08 – Moore/Wilton
25,996
16,877

42,873
9119
60.63%
39.37%
21.27%

06 – Moore/Schwab
18,893
16,321

35,214
2572
53.65%
46.35%
7.30%

04 – Moore/Elkins
22,320
20,883

43,203
1437
51.66%
48.34%
3.33%

02 – Coker/Elkins
14,137
14,480

28,617
-343
49.40%
50.60%
-1.20%

96th District – Cities of Auburn, Bay City, Essexville, and Midland (precinct 1). Bangor, Beaver, Frankenlust, Hampton, Merritt, Monitor, Portsmouth, and Williams Township.

The 96th District is the 2nd most democrat district that has any portion in the 1st district. Most of this district is in the 5th district, including Bay City. Auburn, the Midland portion, two precincts of Monitor Township, Portsmouth, and Williams Townships are in the 1st. This district is the other district in the 1st that voted for John Kerry. Jeff Mayes, the incumbent, is from Bangor Township which is in the 5th District. This is not a liberal district, but it is a democrat district. Pro-life and pro-gun democrats are very common here.

St Rep 96th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%

08 – Rau/Mayes
13,950
32,208

46,158
-18258
30.22%
69.78%
-39.56%

06 – Schaefer/Mayes
9,858
27,199

37,057
-17341
26.60%
73.40%
-46.80%

04 – Goss/Mayes
16,790
29,305

46,095
-12515
36.42%
63.58%
-27.15%

02 – Begick/Rivet
12,032
21,126

33,158
-9094
36.29%
63.71%
-27.43%

The 2010 election is Stupak’s to lose. Despite it being competitive on paper, Stupak is possibly the toughest candidate to knock out in Michigan. He beat a good candidate in Tom Casperson with 65%. Under the current boundaries, he won with 68%, 66%, and 69% all against Don Hooper, a frequent candidate. The old boundaries were more republican, but he survived 94 with 57%, and 98 (against another strong candidate in Michelle McManus) with 59%. Chuck Yob gave Stupak his roughest semi-recent numbers holding him to 58% in 2000 when the gun issue hurt Stupak. Stupak hasn’t had a bad vote on guns since 2001. That flank is well protected.

Despite Cook having this a R+3 seat, Stupak consistently wins by over a 2-1 margin. I’d give the pickup chances here at about 10%. 1% of that is Stupak not running again. 5% is angry democrats going after him on the life issue (R pickup if that happens.) The other 4% is if there is an unexpected blunder. The only way Stupak goes down is if he gets a “gone national” reputation like Tom Daschle did with the democrats. It could happen, but I’m not going to put money on it. That aside, I believe in competing in all districts, and this one needs a good fight. I don’t believe in conceding any race. Stupak has 18 years of votes. They can be looked at, scrutinized, and thrown back in his face.

One important aspect here is geography. Certain areas are an advantage to run from. Stupak being from the Green Bay section of the UP is an advantage as it is a swing part of the district. Yoopers in general will vote for yoopers over trolls. On the same note, trolls don’t have a problem voting for yoopers. Probably the best chance at picking up an open seat here is running a strong yooper against a democrat with a Bay City,  Charlevoix, Harbor Springs, or Petoskey address. Bay City is “Big City” and the other two areas have reputations for money. The other strategy would be to try and take the competitive northern lower portions by bigger than normal numbers. Bush actually won Alpena County, as well as Ogemaw and Iosco counties. Against someone like Stupak, this would be the better strategy as Stupak is a proven commodity in the U.P. With Stupak retiring, it’s best to run a yooper, hopefully against a troll.
I think Saltonstall’s chances are slim with her outspokenly pro-abortion views, and her Charlevoix address which will hurt her chances not just in the UP, but in the inland lower peninsula as well. I doubt she’ll be the nominee however, and expect the dems to run someone stronger.Gary McDowell and Rich Brown I think are their best two shots. For the GOP, I think Tom Casperson is the best shot, although Benishek may surprise people.

Candidates so far:
GOP:
Dan Benishek – Surgeon
Linda Goldthorpe – 08 Primary Candidate
Don Hooper – Usually runs for this seat.

Dem:
Connie Saltonstall – ran for State Rep in 2008, former County Commissioner

Tags: mi-01 stupak