2012 Election Predictions

Here’s how I think the 2012 elections, state and federal, will go 9 months out.


Mitt Romney/Rick Santorum: (375 EV’s)(54.5%)AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: (163 EV’s)(44.8%)CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT


Delaware: Jack Markell(D) 64-36 over Jeff Cragg(R). DEM HOLD.
Indiana: Mike Pence(R) 59-41 over John Gregg(D). GOP HOLD.
Missouri: Jay Nixon(D) 56-44 over Dave Spence(R). DEM HOLD.
Montana: Rick Hill(R) 55-45 over Steve Bullock(D). GOP GAIN.
New Hampshire: Ovide LaMontagne(R) 54-46 over Maggie Hassan(D). GOP GAIN.
North Carolina: Pat McCrory(R) 58-42 over Walter Dalton(D). GOP GAIN.
North Dakota: Jack Darymphle(R) 60-40 over Ryan Taylor(D). GOP HOLD.
Utah: Gary Herbert(R) wins running unopposed. GOP HOLD.
Vermont: Peter Shumlin(D) 53-47 over Randy Brock(R). DEM HOLD.
Washington: Rob McKenna(R) 54-46 over Jay Inslee(D). GOP GAIN.
West Virginia: Bill Maloney(R) 52-48 over Earl Tomblin(D). GOP GAIN.


Arizona: Jeff Flake(R) 56-44 over Richard Cardona(D). GOP HOLD.
California: Dianne Feinstein(D) 58-41 over Dirk Konopik(R). DEM HOLD.
Connecticut: Chris Murphy(D) 55-45 over Linda McMahon(R). DEM GAIN.
Florida: Adam Hasner(R) 52-48 over Bill Nelson(D). GOP GAIN.
Hawaii: Linda Lingle(R) 54-46 over Ed Case(D). GOP GAIN.
Indiana: Richard Mourdock(R) 58-42 over Joe Donnelly(D). GOP HOLD.
Maine: Olympia Snowe(R) 61-39 over Matt Dunlap(D). GOP HOLD.
Maryland: Ben Cardin(D) 59-40 over Dan Bongino(R). DEM HOLD.
Massachusetts: Scott Brown(R) 52-48 over Elizabeth Warren(D). GOP HOLD.
Michigan: Pete Hoekstra(R) 53-47 over Debbie Stabenow(D). GOP GAIN.
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar(D) 53-45 over Dan Severson(R). DEM HOLD.
Mississippi: Roger Wicker(R) 63-37 over Albert N. Gore Jr.(D). GOP HOLD.
Missouri: Sarah Steelman(R) 55-45 over Claire McCaskill(D). GOP GAIN.
Montana: Denny Rehberg(R) 53-47 over Jon Tester(D). GOP GAIN.
Nebraska: Jon Bruning(R) 66-34 over Steven Lustgarten(D). GOP GAIN.
Nevada: Dean Heller(R) 54-45 over Shelley Berkley(D). GOP HOLD.
New Jersey: Bob Menendez(D) 53-46 over Anna Little(R). DEM HOLD.
New Mexico: Heather Wilson(R) 56-44 over Martin Heinrich(D). GOP GAIN.
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand(D) 62-38 over George Maragos(R). DEM HOLD.
North Dakota: Rick Berg(R) 51-49 over Heidi Heitkamp(D). GOP GAIN.
Ohio: Josh Mandel(R) 51-47 over Sherrod Brown(D). GOP GAIN.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr.(D) 52-46 over Tom Smith(R). DEM HOLD.
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse(D) 65-35 over Barry Hinckley(R). DEM HOLD.
Tennessee: Bob Corker(R) 68-32 over Larry Crim(D). GOP HOLD.
Texas: David Dewhurst(R) 63-37 over Paul Sadler(D). GOP HOLD.
Utah: Orrin Hatch(R) 69-31 over Pete Ashdown(D). GOP HOLD.
Vermont: Bernie Sanders(I/D) 60-40 over Thom Lauzon(R). INDY/DEM HOLD.
Virginia: George Allen(R) 51-48 over Tim Kaine(D). GOP GAIN.
Washington: Maria Cantwell(D) 57-43 over Michael Baumgartner(R). DEM HOLD.
West Virginia: Joe Manchin(D) 53-46 over John Raese(R). DEM HOLD.
Wisconsin: Mark Neumann(R) 52-47 over Tammy Baldwin(D). GOP GAIN.
Wyoming: John Barrasso(R) wins running unopposed. GOP HOLD.


Republicans:(+60)AZ-2, AR-4, CA-3, CA-9, CA-16, CA-41, CA-47, CO-7, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, GA-12, HI-1, IL-12, IN-2, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, ME-1, ME-2, MD-2, MD-5, MA-1, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MN-1, MO-5, NV-4, NJ-6, NJ-12, NM-1, NM-3, NY-1, NY-22, NY-23, NY-26, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11, NC-13, OK-2, OR-1(Cornilles wins 51-47 over Bonamici tomorrow), OR-4, OR-5, PA-12, PA-13, RI-1, TN-5, TX-25, UT-4, VA-11, WA-1, WA-2, WA-9, WA-10, WV-3
Democrats: (+8)FL-22, FL-25, IL-8, MD-6, NH-2, TX-14, TX-27, TX-35

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