Every presidential cycle we either re-elect the guy who's in or we throw him out for his opposite.
During the course of a presidential term, a consensus develops among the electorate about the fitness of the fellow they elected. We tend to choose the next officeholder as one who would fill the perceived void, or to counteract the personality flaws of the one of whom we've grown weary. Or else we find a nice placeholder.
I know which it's going to be this time, and I also know who it's going to be.
'32 FDR wasn't Hoover and campaigned against free bread.
'36 FDR bribed us with free bread
'40 FDR bribed us with more free bread
'44 FDR had a war going and bribed us with free bread.
'48 Truman was FDR who won the war and bribed us with free bread.
'52 Ike was the anti-FDR
'56 We liked Ike
'60 Kennedy wasn't Ike (and Chicago cheated)
'64 Johnson was Kennedy and bribed us with free bread
'68 Nixon wasn't Johnson.
'72, Nixon got reelected.
'76 Carter was the anti-Nixon. Ford didn't stand a chance.
'80 Reagan was the anti-Carter.
'84 Reagan was the man
'88 Bush was Reagan.
'92 Bush wasn't Reagan, it turned out, and Ross Perot was a bozo, so Clinton snuck in.
'96 Clinton reelection.
'00 Bush was the anti-Clinton, a straightforward Christian, not the lying twisted Clinton.
'04 Bush wasn't John Kerry.
'08 Obama was the anti-Bush (and cheated)
'12 We will elect the anti-Obama (even though Obama will cheat)
- A conservative female former Republican Governor who is a regular churchgoer is not very Obama-like.
- A conservative southern Republican Governor of Indian heritage who is a hands-on doer is not very Obama-like.
- A moderate Republican northeastern Governor who takes no crap and cuts spending is not very Obama-like.
- A conservative southern Republican Governor who drawls like Bush is not very Obama-like.
- A moderate Republican northeastern former mayor who doesn't mind abortion is perhaps not too Obama-like.
- A conservative southern former Republican governor related to a recent President some people miss is not very Obama-like at all.
Now, before you all jump to conclusions and start another "Draft Socrates 2012" Facebook group, let me assure you that I am not running. In fact, aside from suicide, there is no way I can explain to you how much I am sure I will not run unless no other credible candidate appears.