I’m Not A Cherry Picker; A Note On The GW/Battleground Poll
Polls are showing a wide spectrum of results, but some polls show McCain doing much better than others. For those that don’t know, the GW/Battleground poll was extremely accurate in 2004. The same is true for the IBD/TIPP. Not all polls are worthy of equal attention.
The GW/Battleground poll is not a push poll. There is no way for those conducting that poll to interject their preferences and influence the respondents. GW/Battleground does not prompt people by naming the candidates. They simply ask for the voters’ preference in a certain race. This eliminates bias. Second, they stick with a likely voter model, which time and again has proven to be more accurate than registered voter models. Despite this fact, major media outlets insist on using registered voter models. Finally, GW/Battleground does not conduct polling on weekends. It is widely accepted that working people with families and people of faith are less inclined to be responsive over the weekends. Therefore, polls that reflect weekend data often underestimate Republican support. Still, major media outlets consistently cite polls that use unstable weekend data.
I state this because Republicans are often accused of cherry picking polls that favor McCain. The GW/Battleground has McCain down by two points. For the reasons stated above, we cite this poll for good reason. (Note that the GW/Battleground is not the same as the Big Ten/Battleground.) Other, more scientific polls like IBD/TIPP show the race much closer as well. The traditional Gallup poll has McCain down four, but major media outlets insist on referencing their new unproven model to repeat the myth that McCain is down double digits. That is a MSM lie designed to suppress Republican enthusiasm. I cannot believe all the major media outlets that are running with these stories about McCain being down by double digits and Republicans bailing ship.
It is an outrageous lie. Its bogus. Don’t beleive the hype. This is an epic battle and with a strong finish and a strong GOTV effort, not only can John McCain win, he can win decisively.
- GW/Battleground – Obama +2
- AP – Obama +1
- IBD – Obama +1
- Real Gallup – Obama + 4
- Startegic Vision – leads in OH and FL
Don’t let the media get away with perpetuating its double digit lead lie.