Bad News/Good News: Marco Rubio and Democratic Turnout
Ignoring inconvenient facts doesn’t make them go away. Conservatives have relied on Rasmussen polls for a while and shouldn’t dismiss ones they don’t like. The new Rasmussen poll shows Charlie Crist leading Marco Rubio by four. Rasmussen has been accurate and that number is above the margin of error. Its a fight.
Democratic turnout flopped yesterday. Polls and public sentiment are part of the equation. Enthusiasm and turnout are something different. Yesterday, we got some hints about the latter. Hotline has the numbers:
In primaries in NC, IN and OH, Dems turned out at far lower rates than they have in previous comparable elections.
Just 663K OH voters cast ballots in the competitive primary between LG Lee Fisher (D) and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D). That number is lower than the 872K voters who turned out in ’06, when neither Gov. Ted Strickland (D) nor Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) faced primary opponents.
Only 425K voters turned out to pick a nominee against Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). The 14.4% turnout was smaller than the 444K voters — or 18% of all registered Dem voters — who turned out in ’04, when Gov. Mike Easley (D) faced only a gadfly candidate in his bid to be renominated for a second term.
And in IN, just 204K Hoosiers voted for Dem House candidates, far fewer than the 357K who turned out in ’02 and the 304K who turned out in ’06.
It will be a conservative year, but not because the majority of Americans suddenly morphed into fundemental constitutional conservatives. This is still the same country that broke voting records to elect Obama and give the Democrats super-majorities in both houses. The country is trending conservative, but it is not conservative. A truly conservative electorate is still a generation away.
But we will win. The electorate is fickle and angry. Independents are disillusioned. Moderates are trending conservative and want the country to pivot back towards smaller government. Democrats are in the dumps. Conservatives are soaring. A realistic assessment enhances our chances; it does not hinder them. We shouldn’t hide from tough facts and polls. We need to channel our energies, make wise decisions and act accordingly.