Last week Brad Smith had a great diary with some 2010 early voting numbers from George Mason University's web page. The 2008 early voting numbers are here. Since we have a significant percentage of the early vote now in, I have listed below those states where we have comparative 2008 early voting numbers. The total next to each state represents the total early vote in thus far, together with the final early vote for 2008. The percentages in the table below show what percentage of the early vote is represented by Democrat and Republican registered voters, not the party they voted for.
In every case the Republican early vote is much better than 2008, and the Democrat early vote is down in every state except for West Virginia. Given the low approval rating for Obama in that state, I can only surmise that many of those registered Democrats are voting for the Republican.
There are two states that have statistics broken down by race, Louisiana and North Carolina. In Louisiana, the black early vote thus far for 2010 is 19.5%, vs. 35.6% for 2008. In North Carolina, the black early vote for 2010 is 16.9% vs. 26.5% for 2008.
One state, North Carolina, has comparative statistics available based on age. For the age group 18-29, the early vote thus far in 2010 is 4.8%, vs. 14.9% for 2008. For the age group 30-44, the early vote for 2010 is 10.4% vs. 23.5% for 2008.
|State||2010 Early||2008 Early|
There are a couple of conclusions we can draw from this analysis. First, Republicans are certainly more enthused than Democrats in voting this year vs. 2008. Also, two of the Democrats core voting blocks, young voters and blacks, are turning out in far fewer numbers, while older voters, those most angry over Obamacare, are turning out in much greater numbers. Those older voters also cannot be happy with no Social Security increase for the second straight year.
There is still a week to go and anything can happen, but based on these early voting numbers and the trouble that candidates like Barney Frank is in, I like our chances.