Energy state Democrats, especially those that try to keep some hint of "moderate" cred, know upon which side their bread is buttered. On energy matters, their vote often follows their state's economic and employment interest, as opposed to the party line.
Mary Landrieu is the lone Democratic senator in a state whose entire House delegation, including Dem Charlie Melancon, voted against the Waxman-Markey bill. Most of the other Big Energy states had solid "no" votes as well, but most of them have two Republican senators: TX, OK, MS, AL, WY, UT.
The exception is Alaska, where freshman Dem Mark Begich is the wild card. I'll defer to achance on him. I can't see where Cap & Redistribute offers Aka anything.
We'll see if either of these Dems has the cojones to support a filibuster.