I live in TX-21, Lamar Smith. He was pro-bailout and votes for too many pork barrel spending bills. Otherwise a good conservative Republican Congressman. He didn’t even draw a Democrat challenger this time around. SAFE.
Since that is quite boring, and I have the 2008 Texas election results handy, let’s look at the other TX districts:
* TX -1 Louis Gohmert (R). No Dem challenger, got 188,000 and 87% of vote. SAFE.* TX -2 Ted Poe (R). No Demo Challenger, got 174,492 and 88% of vote. SAFE.* TX -3 Sam Johnson (R). Beat Dem challenger 59% to 38% (Libertarian got the rest). SAFE.* TX-4 Ralph Hall (R). Beat Dem challenger 69% to 30%. SAFE.* TX-5 Jeb Hensarling (R). No Dem challenger. got 163,000 or 87% of vote. SAFE.* TX-6 Joe Barton (R). Beat Dem challenger 62% to 36%. SAFE.* TX-7 John Culberson (R). Beat Dem challenger 55% to 42%. Since Dems made an effort and still lost by double digits, its still SAFE.* TX-8 Kevin Brady (R) Beat Dem 72% to 25%(!). SAFE.* TX-9 Al Green (D). NO GOP contender. * TX-10 Michael McCaul (R). He beat back a serious million-dollar-funded challenge and won 53% to 43%, despite losing by almost 2-to-1 in Travis Co. leaning-to-SAFE.* TX-11 Mike Conaway (R). No Dem. SAFE.* TX-12 Kay Granger (R). Won 67%. SAFE.* TX-13 Mac Thornberry (R). Beat Dem 76% to 22%(!!). SAFE.* TX-14 Ron Paul (R). No competitor(!!) (Its funny but the Libertarians are running more candidates than the Rs or the Ds; that alone tells me we can do better at getting somebody to fill in these long-shot races)* TX-15 Ruben Hinojosa (D). Beat GOP 66% to 32%. SAFE.* TX-16 S. Reyes (D) No GOP contender. (Editor: Fixed typo R->D)
TX-17 Chet Edwards (D). Edwards beat Curnock 53% to 46%. Edwards outspent Waco contender Curnock by about 15-to-1 but only eked out a 7 point win. This is a winnable seat, and is tempting because it is the most Republican seat in the nation held by a Democrat. But Chet Edwards is a sly politician who manages always to get re-elected. The fact that he eked out only 53% against a nobody, after winning in 2006 by alot more than that, may tell us that Edwards’ is running out of excuses during the Age of Obama (who he endorsed). Leans DEM.
TX-18 Shiela Jackson Lee (D). Beat GOP opponent 77% to 21% SAFE.
- TX-19 Randy Neugebauer (R). won by over 70%. SAFE.
- TX-20 Charles Gonzalez (D). beat GOP opponent 72% to 26%. SAFE.
- TX-21 Lamar Smith (R). No Dem opponent. SAFE.
- TX-22 Pete Olson(R). He won Delay’s old seat for the GOP beating Lampson by a solid 52% to 45%. well done, Pete! Likely SAFE next time.
- TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez. Lyle Larson put up a good fight, but still lost 56% to 42%. A Hispanic Republican could make Henry Bonilla’s old seat competitive, but still uphill. Leans DEM.
- TX-24 Kenny Marchant (R). Beat Dem 56% to 41%. Given the big DEM year, it’s enough of a margin to be SAFE for 2010.
- TX-25 Lloyd Doggett (D). Doggett was drawn in a more R district than his 65% to 30% win over Morovich suggests, but if we dont recruit better, we’ll never know. Alas, SAFE.
- TX-26 Burgess (R). 60% to 36% over Dem. SAFE.
- TX-27 Solomon Ortiz (D). Beat GOP contender 57% to 38%. SAFE.
- TX-28 Henry Ceullar (D). Won with 68% over GOP opponent. SAFE.
- TX-29 Gene Green (D). Won with 74% over GOP opponent. SAFE.
- TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson (D). 82% of the vote(!). SAFE.
- TX-31 John Carter (R) Got 60% to 36% for Dem opponent (libertarian got 3%). SAFE.
So we have in 2008 two sallies by the Dems into TX-10 and TX-7 that failed. They can try again, but will fail again.
TX-23 and TX-17 is where the action will be in 2010. The Gerrymanderers made the lines pretty darn good to keep most of the seats super safe, so not much other action in Texas House races. Chet’s district is still conservative and Republican and he wins by racking up a huge margin in Waco. Beat down that Waco margin and you beat Chet. (it was an amazing 47,000 to 29,000 in McClennan, while the McCain v Obama numbers were flipped; in other words about 20,000 Waco voters flipped from McCain to Chet Edwards)
Recruit someone like Kip Averitt (R-Waco) to run against Chet Edwards and his politics of pork, patronage and earmark over-spending.Recruit the next Henry Bonilla to run in TX-23 and take it back for the GOP. Maybe Ted Cruz (Texas solicitor General), or an up-and-comer out of San Antonio. In a ‘wave’ year, and 2010 will be just that if Dems act like they did in 1993-1994, it would be a pickup.
One thing we NEED to do is to get some Hispanic names and faces into the South Texas congressional races. Even if we cant win, we need to recruit top tier folks who can evangelize for the GOP into the hispanic community in Texas.