I have done a lot in my life that requires predicting what will happen and making plans based on partial information. I have made strenuous effort to be objective, clear headed and correct in my predictions. I am now including considerations of who will win in my plans, and those plans are being based on a Romney victory. Why? Because Romney will win.
What gives me that confidence?
1) Enthusiaism: Republicans around the country are like me, more than eager to end the four year mistake of Obama's election. I do not see across the blogosphere, twitterverse or internet a corresponding enthusiasm for Obama. I see plenty of Obama supporters, but their energy is negative; its not the fever pitch of enthusiasm, but the kool-aid drinking of liberals fearful of another Republican. Obama won on hope in 2008 but he can't win on fear in 2012. Why? Romney has defanged fear with his excellent debate and campaign performances.
2) Polls: Not just the Gallup poll, or the RCP average with Romney ahead, despite clear Dem bias in some polls in that average. The very poll that had Obama ahead in Ohio by 3 was a D +9 poll. Yes, there are polls showing Obama ahead, but invariably the poll internals spill the real beans - Romney is leading big among independents, he's not as far down among women as Obama wants him to be. Ras has Romney up 4 in the swing state poll, an 8 point shift or more from 2008. The more you dig into polls, the more you realize it doesnt add up for Obama.
3) Campaigns: Obama flails in desperation to latch on to a reason for Romney to be disqualified - Big Bird, binders, etc. Whatever happened to the $5 trillion tax cut? Wheeled away, a victim of getting exposed to the light of truth. Yet Romney's 'he has no second term agenda" cuts to the real bone. Obama didnt run the 'morning in America' ad because he CANT. His campaign reeks of desperation, and has since debate #1.
4) Barack Hoover Obama: His economic record is a failure. This is the reality that Obama cant change and is driving the other 3 factors. There is no debate quip or sudden October surprise that can fix the economy, and weak quarterly earnings and continued slow growth indicates no shocker will change that in the next 3 weeks. His record is baked in: High unemployment, low growth, $16 trillion in debt, and no plans to fix any of that from Obama.
This is a response to the rather silly and superficial diary "Obama has the electoral college. Romney might lose this after all." We need to stop the silliness that the EV and popular vote can be far out of whack; yes, it can theoretically happen and in a close race (Gore v Bush type) it could mean the popular vote getter might not get 270 EVs. But that is not this case.
Romney is on track to win CO, VA, NC and FL. Romney will win the electoral college if he wins those plus Ohio. Obama at 46% in a D=42% sample is a sign of Obama weakness. Romney has other avenues to win 270 EVs, but the way it will go down is that if Romney DOES win WI or PA or MI, he'll have Ohio too - those other states will be gravy.
Well, Romney is on track to win by 4 to 6 points. (Clip and save to see how right I end up being). He's on track to make 2012 be another 2010 like election, with moderates and independents swinging to the GOP. That's enough to clear above 300 EVs.
Nothing is written in stone, so continue to make every effort because without our efforts for victory, it wont happen. Donate your time, talent and treasure to the candidates and causes you most support. I block-walked for 3 hours for a state rep candidate. I also donated to Romney's campaign. Do your part and the victory we all desire WILL happen.