WY-AL: GOPer Lummis opens lead

Dem Trauner slipping in polls as negatives rise

Good news on the conservative front in Wyoming. Conservative GOP House hopeful former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis is opening up a lead over liberal Democrat Gary Trauner. They are competing to fill the open seat left by the retirement of GOP Congresswoman Barbara Cubin.

In the poll released by the Lummis for Congress campaign, Lummis is receiving 44% of the vote with Trauner receiving 37% with approximately 17% undecided. This is the first time either candidate has held a lead outside the margin of error of 5%%. The Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll released on this race some weeks ago had the race tied at 42% a piece.

From Hans Kaiser:

Results of our recent survey in Wyoming show Cynthia Lummis pulling ahead of Gary Trauner outside the margin of error. Today Lummis leads Trauner 44% to 37% with 1% opting for W. David Herbert and 17% remaining undecided. This is an improvement from two weeks ago when Lummis led Trauner 40%-37%. Importantly, the vast majority of undecided voters (62%) are Republicans while just 15% are Democrats. Gary Trauner has a difficult challenge ahead convincing Wyoming Republicans to vote for a Liberal Democrat. Furthermore, among voters most interested in the election, Lummis holds a 12-point lead 49% to 37%. Cynthia has also increased her favorable image to 42% while her unfavorable image has remained in the mid-twenties (26%). Gary Trauner, on the other hand, has seen his unfavorable rating jump from 16% to 29% in just two weeks while his favorable rating now stands at 40%, down from 42%.

Here are the numbers from the last two surveys:

Candidate Images

Favorable   Unfavorable Net favorable   No opinion/

never heard ofSeptember 28-29, 2008
Lummis image 35% 25% +10% 33% Trauner image 42% 16% +26% 37%October 14-15, 2008
Lummis image 42% 26% +16% 32% Trauner image 40% 29% +11% 31%

Ballot Tests

Lummis  Trauner Herbert None/

don’t knowSeptember 28-29, 2008 40% 37% 4% 20%October 14-15, 2008 44% 37% 1% 17%

MethodologyThis memo contains results of a telephone survey conducted among a representative sample of 400 voters in Wyoming. The interviews were conducted October 14-15, 2008. The potential sampling error is plus or minus 5% at the 95% confidence level.

What is most encouraging about this poll is that Lummis has opened up a lead is that Lummis has withstood an onslaught of negative attacks from Trauner relating to the former state Treasurer’s inclination to explore all possibilities in strengthening Social Security – even establishing private accounts for those yet to enter the work force.

What is hurting Trauner the most is that he is actually a liberal transplant from New York. As a matter of fact, Gary Trauner is a former Wall Street banker who struck it rich before immigrating to Teton County, Wyoming – the heartland of socialists in Wyoming.

The poll released by Lummis for Congress was conducted by Hans Kaiser Moore Information out of Virginia and had a sample of 400 likely voters geographically diverse from all over the state of Wyoming. The poll has a MOE of +- 4.5%.

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