I was looking over some of the Senate Polling from RCP this afternoon and when I got to the CA Republican primary I saw something that sparked my interest. Chuck DeVore has had a sustained surge in support in the latest rounds of polling.
So what does a 4-5 point surge in support actually mean? What can we really take away from these polls, and how trust worthy is the information we are getting?
The polls themselves - specifically the SUSA and Capitol Weekly - don't appear to be bad to me, granted I am not a polling expert. Both seem to have a decent size pool and both are of likely voters. This isn't to say that these polls are faultless, just that their faults fall within what one would expect.
Let's walk through these a bit and I will explain a.) why I believe the momentum is shifting in this race and b.) why Chuck DeVore needs your support today more than ever.
First Campbell and Fiorina*, both appear to have reached their ceilings of support. The Capitol Weekly poll showed support for Fiorina at a low and can probably be looked at as an out-lier for Fiorina. That bit of out-lier information, and what I will address next, could prove to be a glimpse into how this race is breaking as we get closer to the June primary election.
Here is what I am seeing; SUSA and CW both have Campbell tracking in the low-mid 30's, as well, they both have DeVore picking up steam with a 6 point bounce to 14%. The two polls diverge on Carly. This leads me to believe that both polls are probably showing the effects of movement in this race.
The only candidate benefiting from this movement is DeVore. One possible reason for this movement is the newly released radio ads the DeVore campaign put up on April 7th, just prior to these polls being conducted.
As people hear the conservative message that Chuck DeVore brings to the voters of California, his position in the polls will increase. Campbell and Fiorina have peaked.
It's time to back the conservative.
I will leave you with a quote from our own Neil Stevens of Unlikely Voter fame...
The math is complicated, but with two consecutive polls at 14%, the probabilities compound and it's overwhelmingly likely that DeVore has increased his support by 50% in the last month.
DeVore gaining traction as we approach the final month.
Help him make the key push in May in order to win in June.
Aaron B. Gardner
Crossposted at My Blog
* The Fiorina campaign knows this to be true as well. They tipped their hand when they attacked Josh trevino by name after a press release by the DeVore Campaign highlighting the Capitol West Poll.