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Palin’s running…Here’s Why… Updated: No She isn’t! Thank You Erick Erickson!

Update:

A big thank you to the front-pagers for recommending this diary only after her announcement has come that she isn’t running.

Since Erick Erickson has never been wrong in his entire life and had put up over twenty posts last week to make a point, perhaps he should once again put up twenty posts reiterating “I was right!”

His recommendation of this diary is obviously of equal maturity as his actions were last week. Can’t wait for the next twenty posts which will continue to build our utmost respect for him.

p.s.

I’ve written another Diary  since this one which you can read over Here.

There are Times for Words and Times for Silence

There are times when it may appear best for a person to remain silent lest it land them into trouble, although speaking up is the correct thing to do. Similarly, it may often seem as though a person should be speaking up, although silence at that particular time is the better option.

Doing what’s right may at first cause some confusion to those who follow the individual since they aren’t privy to all the details. Once the details fall into place an explanation is no longer necessary since the clarity of the action is obvious to all.

These occurrences happen to us all on a daily basis and we hopefully make the correct choices though at times it may be difficult. At a simple level, when you buy a birthday present for a loved one, at times it may be difficult to keep it as a surprise and refrain from spilling the beans. However, in order for the gift to have its maximum effect, the smarter option is to keep on biting one’s until it’s the recipient’s birthday and the proper time and place to present it.

I’ll be the first to admit that it’s not the most perfect comparison, and that a presidential announcement is quite different than surprising your spouse. However, they both require making a decision (what to buy and whether to run) and then deciding the perfect venue, time, and manner to present their decision. Candidates often receive lots of pressure from supporters who clamor for a decision to be made despite it not being the best time for the candidate to do so.

Who could have foretold two months ago, at a time when Perry hadn’t yet officially announced his candidacy, that he would implode and self-destruct during the debates? Who could’ve imagined the thorough vetting the voters had greeted him with, thoroughly questioning him on his past including but not limited to the Gardasil fiasco and his liberal stance on illegal immigration?   No one could’ve foreseen exactly how time would play out, including Governor Palin. However, she most likely made her the calculation based upon her past experiences and a careful study of other past campaigns which have shown that an early announcement is often damaging to the candidate. Since increased exposure on the battlefield at a time when the enemy is invisible and unknown has proven to do more harm than good, (think Hillary) Palin wisely chose to prolong her decision until the enemy has been identified.

My guess is that Palin has already made her decision to run for the presidency, and barring any earth-shattering occurrences, is unlikely to have a change of mind. Amongst the dozens of reasons one can list which point towards an announcement in the coming days/weeks,  and which I found particularly telling, is the fact that she hired a foreign policy adviser. What need does an ordinary citizen like you and me have for a foreign policy adviser? Which celebrity, media figure, or pop-star has ever hired a foreign policy adviser? Only a presidential run in-the-making can explain her move.

Those who’ve claimed that the delayed announcement is due to a negative response and that she therefore fears an angry backlash from her supporters, speak utter nonsense. Pushing difficult things off only make them even harder. If you’ve got to mow the lawn and push off the task for two months because of the hard work involved, your task at hand has tripled in its difficulty. Similarly, if she had truly been undecided and then made the decision not to run, she would’ve immediately told her supporters. Governor Palin has proven throughout her career to have done what’s right despite it having often been the more difficult path to take, and has said repeatedly that it wouldn’t be fair to her supporters to string them along for no good purpose.

As for those who believe, or pretend to believe, that she’s avoiding a decision due to her lust for fame and money, where and when have they seen her receive either of the two? If she would truly seek fame she would’ve joined Hollywood or some similar venue a long time ago, as I’ve already written in the past. All she’s gotten the last while, especially the last several months, is attacks from many on both sides of the aisle. Her decisions to delay the major decision a bit longer upset not only non-supporters but also many supporters who are itching for action. So it’s clearly neither the fame nor the money that will motivate Governor Palin to run.

She is simply waiting for the time she deems right to announce, to arrive. In the meanwhile each candidate has had the opportunity to shoot up like a rising meteor only to crash down to the ground shortly thereafter. It has already occurred to Bachmann and Perry, with Cain now in the midst of his ascent while simultaneously descending.

Waiting for the right moment is indeed difficult and can frustrate many supporters, but as with the birthday present stashed in the attic, once she will make her announcement her supporters including those who’ve become discouraged will throw their full support behind her. She is therefore focused on the proper timing, venue, and method so that her message will reach non-supporters which are more difficult to reach than impatient or discouraged supporters.

Most campaigns prepare game-changing ads weeks or months in advance which they itch to release against their opponents. However, they hold onto it until the time it will have the greatest impact and will best serve their campaign arises. It would be foolish to release them in advance and not save a hit-piece for the last week of the campaign only because of unconstrained excitement.

So too, Palin could’ve done lots of things a year or two or three ago, but has kept off it until the time was right. She could’ve contacted Steve Bannon right after 2008 to release a short audio with information about her record to clear up her name. However, she knew it was worth her while to bear the attacks for three more years and only set out to inform everyday Americans about the truth once the primary season was ginning up so that its greatest impact on voters will be strongest.  Although many of her supporters would’ve enjoyed it two years ago, for the general public for whom it was mainly intended, the timing couldn’t have been more perfect.

Another example is her focus on crony capitalism the last month. The last three years were chock full of attacks against Obama, yet she kept crony capitalism which serves as a double-edged sword for the primary season, thereby effectively hitting two targets with one sweep.

So we’ve got to remember to “keep your powder dry” until the announcement is made. I’m of the opinion that although she promised an unconventional campaign she will run under the GOP banner and therefore announce before the states’ deadlines. Until the announcement, keep your cool, for afterwards it’ll be one long frenzy-filled campaign which won’t come to a rest until November 6, 2012.

This article is cross-posted from The Thinking Voter.

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