It’s been a pleasure to “know” you all

    As I informed Erick, Ben, and Mike several weeks ago, and as I decided myself several months ago, my long stint with RedState will come to an end now that the election cycle has concluded. Like many others after me, I found RedState as a random internet reader, way back in 2004. I was not politically active, but politically interested. Picked out of a crowd | Read More »

    Election Day Open Thread #2

    Rain? Sun? Voter lines? Black panthers? Give us an update. Put your voting experience here. Put your projections here. Put your rambling thoughts here. Open Thread.

    Election Day Open Thread #1

    Tell us your voting story. Tell us about any irregularities. Give us your best “why the polls are wrong” explanation. Make projections. Or just enjoy watching Democracy at work. Do it here. Open Thread.

    My Projections in the House, Senate, Governor, and Presidential Races

    These are depressing. Stop now if you don’t want to be saddened. HOUSE I don’t follow all the races. But my projection is Ds picking up 18-20 seats. Rs picking up 2-5 seats. And the net change to be 15-18 seat pick up for Ds. SENATE Ds will pick up NM, CO, VA, AK, and NH. Period. I project Ds will also win OR and | Read More »

    Being An Optimist Today

    1) The last batch of swing state polls that came from FOXNews/Rasmussen show the closest numbers in a while. This includes McCain leading in FL (+1) and NC (+1). They show a tie in MO and OH. And they show McCain within striking distance in VA (-4) and CO (-4). Data here. 2) The major battleground states narrowed. Look at the RCP graphs to see | Read More »

    SEN and GOV races to watch

    Taking a moment to step back from the Presidential race, here are some very close races to watch tomorrow: SENATE The Democrats are almost guaranteed to pick up NM, VA, CO, AK and NH. Thus, there are 5 Senate races to watch. Right now they look to go 2-2 with MN as a real toss-up. In order of most likely D pickup, here they are: | Read More »

    MN-SEN: Most liberal paper in MN refuses to endorse Franken (D)

    According to Michael Brodkorb, tomorrow’s Star Tribune has an endorsement of incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. This is quite surprising. This would be like the NYT endorsing Rudy for GOV. The Strib is one of two papers that is more partisan and unreadable than the NYT (the St. Petersburg rag being the other). Maybe there is some appetite for not giving Ds absolute, unfilibustered power. Note | Read More »

    McCain Booms Among Independents; Captures Some “Change” Voters

    We’re still getting a lot of polling data. For aggregation of state and national polls, see RCP or 538. These include yeseterday’s CNN/Time survey of 4 swing states and today’s Quinnipiac poll of 3 swing states. Here are some random thoughts on some of those polls. PRES First, 538 now has McCain projected to win 52% of the time. Intrade has the odds of McCain | Read More »

    Polls, Polls, Polls

    Yesterday, a slew of national and state polls were released to deduce the “convention” bounce. The broad picture is harder to measure than usual. Because the conventions were back-to-back, we don’t have a good reading of the pre-RNC state of the race. The pre-RNC polls were at the peak of the DNC bounce. Thus, it is unsurprising that the RNC bounce has been bigger (+6) | Read More »

    25 Most Competitive House Races

    The guys at RealClearPolitics have made their list (in order) of the 25 most competitive House races. Some basic outlines of the House races: 1) GOP retirements have made this likely to be a good year for DEMs; 2) There are some DEM freshman in heavily GOP seats that the GOP could get back; 3) The Party ID advantage that DEMs have created is helping | Read More »