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NH and CO SEN – GOPers Make Gains

Both Races Narrow Substantially in Two Independent Polls

NH-SEN:

UNH:
Sununu 42 (40)
Shaheen 46 (52)

Rasmussen:
Sununu 45 (39)
Shaheen 50 (53)

The 14 point lead from the last Rasmussen was the biggest one they have shown in the race. But the small 5-point margin in the most recent poll is the closest the race has been since last September. This race is a re-match from 2002 when Sununu won 51-47. Shaheen is a popular ex-GOV and the favorite.

This race has moved from bordering on uncompetitive to one of the closest races in the country. Both candidates have strong fav/unfav numbers, but UNH finds Sununu’s numbers rising from even to +19 over the last year. Shaheen’s have fallen a little from +30 to +22.

This is the same UNH poll that finds ex-REP Bradley (R) ahead of current REP Shea-Porter in NH-01: 46-40. Shea-Porter’s fav/unfav has fallen from +26 to +3 over the year, mainly from rising unfavs. Bradley still has a strong +21 rating. Also, more people have an opinion of Bradley. He sports a 48/27 fav/unfav compared to Shea-Porter’s 35/32.

NH-02, however, looks uncompetitive where freshman REP Hodes (D) is ahead by 20 over unknowns who are running in the GOP primary.

CO is below the fold.Interesting side note, Sununu is still the youngest member of the Senate at 43 years of age. If he can win re-election in a tough year like 2008, he may be set to be a long serving Senator in NH.

CO-SEN:

Quinnipiac/WaPo:
Schaffer 44 (38)
Udall 44 (48)

Rasmussen:
Schaffer 43 (40)
Udall 47 (49)

Both polls show significant tightening. Schaffer is tied in the first and down 4 in the second, improvements of 10 and 5 respectively. Both candidates have their party vote sowed up. Udall leads among Indies by a 46-38 margin in the Quinnipiac poll but the party ID of the sample is a tad Republican, thus the vote comes out tied. CO is one of few states where GOPer do outnumber Ds, although the margin is narrowing.

This is a race that has never moved into “uncompetitive” status. But it seemed on the verge of moving from Lean D to Likely D. These two polls keep it firmly in Lean D and keep the possibility of Toss Up alive.

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