Been a while since I posted here instead of responding.
Is Romney winning? I think he is. If not, Romney/Ryan has all the momentum. A few short weeks ago, the talk was that it was all over, Obama was winning in a landslide, and the Republicans need to put their toys away and wait til next time.
Obama can still win in a landslide. Because of the 24 hour news cycle and far left state run media, Romney and Ryan have to be on their best behavior. No major gaffes, no skeletons/rotting corpses can come out of the closet, and sounding competent is key. To use a football analogy, they're almost at the point where they can go into victory formation; they just have one or two more first downs to pick up before they can get into it.
This is why the second debate is key.
To be clear, I think independents/moderates/undecideds want to vote for Romney. I think the majority of this country is disenchanted with hope and change, snears and jeers, and utter incompetence. I truly believe people are ready to pull the lever for Romney. Obama has failed, and they know it. They just need a little reassurance. They got their first taste of how in command Romney is of the issues and how presidential he looked in the first debate. Romney is competent, composed, and unafraid. Obama looked weak, ineffective, and uninterested. Romney politely pounced on it, and I think people know he's qualified to hold the title of President. The second taste was Paul Ryan on Thursday; he had pretty good command of the issues and facts, and came out looking great after getting beat up by Joe Biden and Martha Raddatz. People are ready to pull the lever for Romney/Ryan. (I keep repeating that phrase because I reallybelieve it to be true)
Romney needs to just not blow the second debate, and he needs to do more than hold his own on foreign policy. He'll need to overcome the spking of the UBL football that will be brought up by Obama and the moderator providing assistance, and he'll need to do a better job outlining differences in the Syria policies that I thought Ryan struggled with a little. He'll also need to wade very carefully in the waters of not turning Libya into political theatre but also being able to point out Obama's failures. Finally, Romney needs to look as presidential as Ryan did the other night and not get flustered. Obama's going to amplify Biden's jerk factor by a trillion, and he needs to let it pass.
If Romney is competitive in the debate, then I think the election is over, even with one more debate left. Romney having a grasp of foreign policy issues and being able to explain differences will win him this election on Tuesday. People know they can trust Romney to do a better job on the economy, and that was the biggest hurdle to jump over. Now, they just need to know that Romney can handle foreign policy and show some contrast. If that happens on Tuesday, the only question is how much of a margin of victory Romney has in November.
I know, I might sound a little crazy, but this debate can seal the election for Romney. The only thing left to wonder is what will become of the Senate, which I think the Republicans have blown in epic proportions.