Why Democrats are Crying about Gallup…and Why They KNOW They’re in Trouble
If you have been following the polling roller coaster these past couple of weeks, you know that Mitt Romney’s polling support has done an “amazing” about-face subsequent to the first debate. I placed “amazing” in quotes because those of us who are familiar with the games that left-leaning pollsters play (i.e. trying to set the narrative with early polling in lieu of actually sampling and reporting public opinion) are not all that amazed with the turn of events when RV results have been jettisoned and LV models are now being reported.
So what accounts for the weeping and gnashing of teeth that is coming from the left over Gallup’s recent results showing Romney leading by 6-7 points among LVs (7 points as of today, 10/21)?
In a word: REALITY
Josh Jordan, writing for the National Review this morning, published a terrific piece taking the LV sampling issue and applying it to Ohio, where Obama was thought to have a solid advantage just a few short weeks ago. He points out:
“Romney is up big with independents: In 2008 Obama beat John McCain by 8 percent among independents in Ohio. Of the seven current RCP polls that give independent numbers, Romney is up by an average of 8.7 percent. That’s a 16 percent swing in independents toward Romney from 2008′s numbers. If you assume equal turnout in 2012 as 2008 (using my number from above) but take Obama’s 8 percent edge with independents and give it Romney, that 4.6 percent 2008 margin becomes a tie. At that point, Romney would win if he chips away at the five-percent turnout advantage from 2008.”
In other words, the junk LV polls showing Obama winning (like today’s IBP/TIPP poll, which laughably shows Obama winning by 5.7% with a +7 Dem sampling advantage and Romney winning Indies by 6 points; IBP/TIPP also has Romney winning the South by ONE POINT, when all other polls have him whipping Obama in the South…and Obama winning 22% of the conservative vote!!!) are assuming LV turnout similar to or in excess of 2008, when Obama caught lightning in a bottle, didn’t have a terrible record to defend, and wasn’t vetted in the least.
Democrats – HONEST Democrats, like Pat Caddell, anyway – KNOW this to be true. That is why the left is SCARED TO DEATH about what Gallup and Rasmussen are reporting.
Gallup and Rasmussen, by comparison, are using LV sampling that actually represents the conservative and Republican enthusiasm that has swept the nation. They are also accounting for the lackluster Democrat enthusiasm that led to huge losses in the WI election and 2010 butt-kicking.
This, of course, has the lefties in a state of perpetual PANIC, as they cannot conceive of polling that accurately reflects public support and doesn’t drive their pitiful narrative i.e. that Obama just needs 4 more years…to look “forward” instead of scrutinizing Obama’s terrible job-performance.
Well guess what, Democrats? WE THE PEOPLE will decide who the next president is, not Chris Matthews or the Daily Kos. You pulled the wool over the eyes of voters once (including here in my beloved Hoosier State…a state that is set to undo that wrong in a little over 2 short weeks by voting Romney president and sending Mourdoch to the senate). Don’t expect pollsters to hold your hand, dress you in your jammies, and sing you a lullaby as your joke of a president has his rear end handed to him by voters reflective of the way he has damaged this country.
And to Republicans, I ditto the sentiments of Mark Levin: This isn’t over yet…we have work to do. Get your people to the polls. Persuade undecided voters that the future of the country is at stake. DRIVE THAT LAST NAIL IN OBAMA’S POLITICAL COFFIN by WORKING YOUR TAILS OFF TO SQUEEZE EVERY LAST VOTE OUT OF EVERY LAST CITY AND TOWN.
We have come too far to get outworked 2 weeks from victory. Let the polls be your fortification, not your motivation. We are motivated to TAKE AMERICA BACK. Let our blood and sweat lead us to victory in 2012.