Rick Boucher was first elected in 1982 and I well remember the shock that we Virginia Republicans felt when he defeated long time Representative William Wampler.
Re-elected without fanfare every two years since, Boucher has come to seem virtually unbeatable. Until now. Southwest Virginia is coal country. For decades Boucher has remained in office in large measure because he caters to the coal industry and its powerful unions. Then along came Cap & Tax. Oops.
Even though Boucher has been well ahead of Morgan Griffith in every poll through the summer and fall, Virginia 9 has stubbornly remained on the radar of several national experts. Now we know why. Survey USA has been polling this race for months and courtesy RealClearPolitics here are their numbers:
07/17 - 07/20 579 LV 39 52 Boucher +13
08/31 - 09/2 576 LV 40 50 Boucher +10
09/27 - 09/29 628 LV 38 53 Boucher +15
10/11 - 10/13 633 LV 41 51 Boucher +10
10/21 - 10/25 608 LV 47 46 Griffith +1
William Wampler was first elected on Dwight D. Eisenhower's coattails in 1952 and promptly lost the seat in 1954 during Ike's first mid-term. He was out of office until twelve years later when he was elected during Lyndon Johnson's mid-term. He served till 1982 when Boucher rode the midsized Dem wave that occurred during Ronald Reagan's first mid-term.
Now, the mid-term itch appears to be setting in once more. Assuming SurveyUSA used the same methodology in all their polls, this is a VERY bad sign for Rick Boucher. The Wave isn't a wave but a massive torrent of Biblical proportions that appears poised to swamp and destroy the power mad ruling party in Washington D.C.