In just a few hours Gov. Christie will apparently make an announcement that he is running for president, or for the umpteenth time that he absolutely is NOT running for president.
My prediction is that he will not run. My reasons are as follows:
1. Christie is not a power mad egotist. He has young children and is on the record expressing concern for them as one of his main reasons for not running. He also has stated several times that he is not ready to be president.
2. Christie is a smart politician. While important people begging you to run is surely an exhilarating experience, I give Christie credit for reading the current situation correctly and not getting caught up in the emotion of the moment.
3. Contrary to the calculations of various commentators, this is probably not Christie’s best shot to become president. As much as I enjoy Jay Cost’s work, I think his reasoning in this piece is flawed. There are two basic scenarios for any Republican currently considering a run for president: Scenario 1, Obama is re-elected in 2012, Scenario 2, Obama is not re-elected in 2012. My gut tells me that if Christie runs in 2012 he will not win the Republican nomination, therefore I see Scenario 1 as being his best chance to win the presidency. Christie should stay where he is, win reelection in New Jersey in 2013 and then with Obama still in the White House, run for the nomination as a two term governor in 2016. After eight years of Obama-Biden, Republicans will be primed to support a candidate like Christie (i.e. proven winner in a blue state) in the next cycle.