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“October Surprise”–its meaning in the past and for the future.

Within the past week, Pamela Geller and Alex Jones have both warned about an “October Surprise.” It’s almost a political cliche now, and it will be a surprise if there’s no “surprise.” Let’s take a closer look at “October surprise.”

“OCTOBER SURPRISE”–THE FIRST RECORDED CITATION
Wikipedia claims that “October surprise” comes from October 1972, but there is no printed record that the term was used at this time.

Jack Anderson’s political column from June 10, 1980 (my webpage on “October surprise” is here) appears to be the first printed use of the term. The Iranian hostage crisis was ongoing, and Ronald Reagan’s team feared an ‘October surprise” from Jimmy Carter’s camp. Thus, the term was used well before October 1980.

The Oxford English Dictionary revised its entry on “October surprise” in June 2010, but gives a first citation from only September 1, 1980.

There is also a Wikipedia page for 1980′s alleged October surprise conspiracy theory.

PAMELA GELLER
From the American Thinker:

July 13, 2010
The October Surprise Is Coming
By Pamela Geller
The October Surprise. We all know it’s coming. In what shape, idea, form — who’s to say? Evil always surprises. Its goals are constant, the ultimate objective never changes, but inevitably it manifests itself as the savior of the day, the savior of man. The 2008 Democrat October Surprise that ushered in the first hardcore radical post-American president in American history was the “economic collapse.” Oh yes, that was a beaut.

The time before that, the moochers and the looters tried to fake Bush documents — except that the conservative blogosphere caught them red-handed, so they missed their mark.
(…)
What will October’s Surprise be? Political analyst Jack Wheeler has an idea. “A Second Great Depression,” he says, “is the Democrat Party’s path to power”:
(…)
Wheeler speculates that this could take the form of “another 9/11, a massively horrific terrorist attack, perhaps even nuclear.”

ALEX JONES
From InfoWars.com:

Alex Jones Special Broadcast: Obama to Stage 9/11-OKC Style Event to Save Presidency
Infowars.com
July 15, 2010
Alex expands on Paul Joseph Watson’s article “Top Clinton Official: Only A Terror Attack Can Save Obama.”

Don’t listen to the 30 minutes of The Alex Jones Show provided in the three clips. It’s a rambling whole lot of nothing.

From Prison Planet:

Top Clinton Official: Only A Terror Attack Can Save Obama
Bilderberger Shapiro says President needs new OKC or 9/11 as a way of “demonstrating that he is a leader” before November elections and reversing plunging approval ratings.
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
A former senior advisor to President Bill Clinton says that the only thing which can rescue Barack Obama’s increasingly tenuous grip on power as his approval figures continue to plunge is a terror attack on the scale of Oklahoma City or 9/11, another startling reminder that such events only ever serve to benefit those in authority.

Buried in a Financial Times article about Obama’s “growing credibility crisis” and fears on behalf of Democrats that they could lose not only the White House but also the Senate to Republicans, Robert Shapiro makes it clear that Obama is relying on an October surprise in the form of a terror attack to rescue his presidency.

“The bottom line here is that Americans don’t believe in President Obama’s leadership,” said Shapiro, adding, “He has to find some way between now and November of demonstrating that he is a leader who can command confidence and, short of a 9/11 event or an Oklahoma City bombing, I can’t think of how he could do that.”

MY TAKE ON THE “OCTOBER SURPRISE”
I believe we had an “October Surprise” in September 2008, when the financial markets melted. On one particular day, there appears to have been a large attack (as one Congressman subsequently revealed), leading to the TARP bailout. We still don’t know (or it hasn’t been revealed) who did it.

Another financial meltdown would surprise me–people would be LESS likely to vote Democrat.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the U.S. or if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities.

A “false flag” terror attack–of the Alex Jones-imagine kind–would surprise me. Unlike the attack on Spain before its elections, I don’t see how that helps the Democrats.

We can expect the unexpected. I expect the “October surprise’ to hit in early September.

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