Kansas 3rd District Survey: Kevin Yoder 25%, Patricia Lightner 21%
This past weekend, my political action committee Kansans for Government Reform commissioned a survey in Johnson County and in the 4th Congressional District. Here are the results for four questions — 3rd District Republican primary, 4th District Republican primary, Sam Brownback’s approval rating, and the ideological breakdown of Republican primary voters. Note that for budgetary reasons we did not survey the entire 3rd District, but only voters in Johnson County, where about 90% of all 3rd District Republicans live (Johnson County also has 10,000 more likely Republican voters than the 4th District).
The Virginia-based company ccAdvertising contacted 10,000 voters between on Friday through Sunday, June 4, 5, and 6. Voters were chosen from a Kansas Secretary of State database. A voter was contacted only if he or she was a registered Republican, and if he or she had voted in at least one of the following elections: the August 2004 election, August 2006 election, or August 2008 election. Voters were chosen from Johnson County and from the 4th Congressional District, based on home address. The survey was automated with a recorded male voice, and respondents were given the option to reply either “yes” or “no” to questions. 1637 people answered at least one question. With election-related questions, candidates were listed in alphabetical order. Respondents are only included in our results if they answered “yes” or “no,” meaning that respondents who offered no response, or an inaudible response, are not included in the total when computing percentages for a particular question; to clarify, then, this means that in a multi-candidate election question, for a respondent to be included in our final totals for that particularly question, the respondent must have either responded “yes” to one candidate, or else the respondent must have answered “no” for EVERY candidate. Voters were asked if they lived in Johnson County: the 3rd District primary question was asked to “yes” respondents, and the 4th District primary question was asked to “no” respondents.
No weighting or changes were done to the results, after the survey was completed.
Conservative: 414 70.5%
Moderate: 137 23.3%
Liberal: 36 6.1%
Total: 587 100%
3rd District primary:
Daniel Gilyeat: 41 13.3%
Dave King: 16 5.2%
Patricia Lightner: 65 21.1%
Jean Ann Uvodich: 8 2.6%
Kevin Yoder: 76 24.8%
Undecided: 101 32.9%
Total: 307 100%
4th District primary:
Jim Anderson: 19 5.5%
Wink Hartman: 140 40.8%
Mike Pompeo: 90 26.2%
Jean Schodorf: 47 13.7%
Undecided: 47 13.7%
Total: 343 100%
Heard of, yes: 620 97.9%
Heard of, no: 13 2.1%
Total: 633 100%
Favorable opinion of Brownback (asked only among “yes” on Name ID)
Yes: 393 65.9%
No: 203 34.1%
Total: 596 100%
For comparison purposes (see embedded links for further information):
3rd District: For the 3rd District race, there is only one poll that has been publicly released, and that was Nick Jordan’s February 2010 poll that showed Jordan at 27%, Kevin Yoder at 9%, 5% Patricia Lightner, 5% Charlotte O’Hara, and about 50% undecided.
4th District: For the 4th District, I am aware of just one poll, which was performed by SurveyUSA in February 2010, but it listed two candidates who no longer in the picture. SurveyUSA showed Hartman at 36%, State Senator Dick Kelsey (no longer running, and has endorsed Pompeo) at 11%, Pompeo at 10%, Schodorf at 10%, and Anderson at 6%.
Brownback: SurveyUSA’s May 2010 tracking poll listed Brownback’s overall approval rating at 48%. It found that 63% of Republicans approved of Brownback.
Other ccAdvertising surveys: Lastly, for readers unfamiliar with ccAdvertising, I am going to reference some of their recent surveys, to demonstrate the company’s good track record.
- Texas Republican primary for Governor: In February 2010, ccAdvertising surveyed Texas voters about the March 2 gubernatorial primary between incumbent Rick Perry, US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Tea Party leader Debra Medina. The survey by ccAdvertising showed Rick Perry at 51.2% and Kay Bailey Hutchison at 26.9%. Visit RealClearPolitics.com to view and compare to a list of polls on the Texas primary. The official final vote had Perry winning with 51.1% and Hutchison at 30.3%.
- California US Senate Republican primary: Yesterday, Tuesday, June 8, was primary election day in California, where Sarah Palin-endorsed Carly Fiorina won big time. But the race has fluctuated a lot over time. California is also more difficult to poll than Kansas because California, like Missouri, allows for unaffiliated voters to participate in primary elections. As recently as May, SurveyUSA showed Tom Campbell ahead. In March 2010, ccAdvertising surveyed California voters and found that Tom Cambell received 32.1%, Carly Fiorina was at 17.1%, and Chuck Devore was at 10.3%. Compare those ccAdvertising numbers to the series of polls listed at Real Clear Politics, and done near the time of March 2010.
- California Governor Republican primary: In the same March 2010 survey as above, ccAdvertising found that Meg Whitman received 55.4% of the vote, and that Steve Poizner received 16.6% of the vote. Compare those numbers to the list of California gubernatorial primary polls at Real Clear Politics, performed near the time of March 2010.
- Alabama Democratic primary for Governor: ccAdvertising surveyed Alabama voters on Sunday, May 18, with regard to the Tuesday, June 1, Democratic primary election between Artur Davis and Ron Sparks. Sparks narrowly led by a 42.2% to 38.9% margin, according to ccAdvertising. Research 2000/Daily Kos performed a poll between May 17 and May 19, and they found that Davis was leading by 8 points, 41-33% The final result had Ron Sparks beating Artur Davis 62-38%.
Connect with Benjamin Hodge at Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, The Kansas Progress, and LibertyLinked. Hodge is President of the State and Local Reform Group of Kansas. He served as one of seven at-large trustees at Johnson County Community College from 2005-’09, a member of the Kansas House from 2007-’08, a delegate to the Kansas Republican Party from 2009-’10, and was founder of the Overland Park Republican Party in 2011. His public policy record is recognized by Americans for Prosperity, the Kansas Association of Broadcasters, the Kansas Press Association, the Kansas Sunshine Coalition for Open Government, the NRA, Kansans for Life, and the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE).