New poll for Johnson County Chair: Possible opening for conservative John Toplikar against liberals Ed Eilert, Annabeth Surbaugh, and John Segale
Note: This is the race for the “mayor” of Johnson County, which contains over 500,000 people and about 330,000 voters, or about a fifth of Kansas voters.
On June 9, I wrote about a survey in Johnson County and in the 4th Congressional District, performed by my political action committee on June 4, 5, and 6. As part of that same survey, we asked questions about the upcoming August 3 primary for Chair of the County Government. At the time of our survey, only two candidates were in the race, incumbent Chairwoman Annabeth Surbaugh and County Commissioner Ed Eilert.
Since the survey, there are two additional candidates who have filed. Former County Commissioner and State Representative John Toplikar filed on Tuesday, June 8. Former County Commissioner and Shawnee City Councilman John Segale filed Thursday, June 10.
Here are the results of our poll. Questions were asked only to likely Republican primary voters. Voters registered as “Republican” in Johnson County who voted in either 2004, or 2006, or 2008 equal 85,129 voters, or about 71.2% of all primary voters. All primary voters in Johnson County, in either 2004, or 2006, or 2008 equal 119,637 voters.
I’ll provide the methodology and further information later on in the article, after these summarized results:
1. Favorable opinion of Ed Eilert: Number Percent
Favorable, yes: 108 48.6%
Favorable, no: 114 51.4%
Total 222 100%
Note: Margin of error 6.7%. Of these 222 respondents: 101 were Male (45.5%) and 121 were Female (54.5%).
2. Favorable opinion of Annabeth Surbaugh: Number Percent
Favorable, yes: 94 41.0%
Favorable, no: 135 59.0%
Total: 229 100%
Note: Margin of error, 6.6%. Of these respondents, 105 (45.9%) were male and were 124 (54.1%) were female.
3. Ed Eilert vs. Annabeth Surbaugh, two-way election:
Ed Eilert: 133 57.3%
Annabeth Surbaugh: 64 27.6%
Undecided: 35 15.1%
Total: 232 100%
Note 1: Breakdown of gender for each candidate. Among Eilert’s supporters, 68 were male and 65 were female. Among Surbaugh’s supporters, 23 were male and 41 female.
Note 2: Actual question asked, “KNOWING THAT ED EILERT AND ANNABETH SURBAUGH ARE THE CANDIDATES FOR JOHNSON COUNTY CHARIMAN, IF YOU HAD THE OPTION OF VOTING FOR AN EVEN MORE CONSERVATIVE CHOICE THAN EITHER OR THESE TWO, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR THAT MORE CONSERVATIVE CHOICE?”
Note 3: Margin of error, 6.6%. Of these respondents, 108 (46.6%) were male and 124 (53.4%) were female.
4. If there were a candidate more conservative than either Ed Eilert or Annabeth Surbaugh, would the respondent support the more conservative choice?
Yes, to more conservative choice: 153 65.1%
No, to more conservative choice: 82 34.9%
Total: 235 100%
Note 1: Among the 133 respondents who prefer Ed Eilert over Annabeth Surbaugh in a head-to-head race, 86 (64.7%) answered “yes” to a more conservative choice for county chair (45 answered “no” to a more conservative choice).
Note 2: Margin of error, 6.5%. Of these respondents, 108 were male and 127 were female.
5. Ideology: Number Percent
Conservative: 172 72.3%
Moderate: 58 24.4%
Liberal: 8 3.4%
Total: 238 100%
Notes for all of the above questions:
- Just because a respondent does not answer “yes” to the favorability question, this does not mean that the respondent has an unfavorable opinion of the candidate. The candidates are not universally known across Johnson County.
- For all of the above questions, respondents are only included if they answered all of the following four questions, and in the following manners:
- 1. “Yes” to “ARE YOU REGISTERED TO VOTE IN KANSAS?”
- 2. “Yes” to “DO YOU INTEND TO VOTE IN THE AUGUST PRIMARY REPUBLICAN ELECTION?”
- 3. ”Yes” to “FOR DEMOGRAPHIC PURPOSES, DO YOU LIVE IN JOHNSON COUNTY?”
- 4. Either “Yes” or “No” to “ARE YOU MALE?”
More information about this poll:
The Virginia-based company ccAdvertising contacted 10,000 voters between Friday through Sunday, June 4, 5, and 6. Voters were chosen from a Kansas Secretary of State database. A voter was contacted only if he or she was a registered Republican, and if he or she had voted in at least one of the following elections: the August 2004 election, August 2006 election, or August 2008 election. Voters were chosen from Johnson County and from the 4th Congressional District, based on home address. The survey was automated with a recorded male voice, and respondents were given the option to reply either “yes” or “no” to questions. 1637 people answered at least one question. With election-related questions, candidates were listed in alphabetical order. Respondents are only included in our results if they answered “yes” or “no,” meaning that respondents who offered no response, or an inaudible response, are not included in the total when computing percentages for a particular question; to clarify, then, this means that in a multi-candidate election question, for a respondent to be included in our final totals for that particularly question, the respondent must have either responded “yes” to one candidate, or else the respondent must have answered “no” for EVERY candidate.
Voters were asked if they lived in Johnson County: The Johnson County Chairman primary question was asked to the respondents who answered “yes” to this question.
For comparison purposes (see embedded links for further information):
Other ccAdvertising surveys: For readers unfamiliar with ccAdvertising, I am going to reference some of their recent surveys, to demonstrate the company’s good track record.
- Texas Republican primary for Governor: In February 2010, ccAdvertising surveyed Texas voters about the March 2 gubernatorial primary between incumbent Rick Perry, US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Tea Party leader Debra Medina. The survey by ccAdvertising showed Rick Perry at 51.2% and Kay Bailey Hutchison at 26.9%. Visit RealClearPolitics.com to view and compare to a list of polls on the Texas primary. The official final vote had Perry winning with 51.1% and Hutchison at 30.3%.
- California US Senate Republican primary: Yesterday, Tuesday, June 8, was primary election day in California, where Sarah Palin-endorsed Carly Fiorina won big time. But the race has fluctuated a lot over time. California is also more difficult to poll than Kansas because California, like Missouri, allows for unaffiliated voters to participate in primary elections. As recently as May, SurveyUSA showed Tom Campbell ahead. In March 2010, ccAdvertising surveyed California voters and found that Tom Cambell received 32.1%, Carly Fiorina was at 17.1%, and Chuck Devore was at 10.3%. Compare those ccAdvertising numbers to the series of polls listed at Real Clear Politics, and done near the time of March 2010.
- California Governor Republican primary: In the same March 2010 survey as above, ccAdvertising found that Meg Whitman received 55.4% of the vote, and that Steve Poizner received 16.6% of the vote. Compare those numbers to the list of California gubernatorial primary polls at Real Clear Politics, performed near the time of March 2010.
- Alabama Democratic primary for Governor: ccAdvertising surveyed Alabama voters on Sunday, May 18, with regard to the Tuesday, June 1, Democratic primary election between Artur Davis and Ron Sparks. Sparks narrowly led by a 42.2% to 38.9% margin, according to ccAdvertising. Research 2000/Daily Kos performed a poll between May 17 and May 19, and they found that Davis was leading by 8 points, 41-33% The final result had Ron Sparks beating Artur Davis 62-38%.
Connect with Benjamin Hodge at Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, The Kansas Progress, and LibertyLinked. Hodge is President of the State and Local Reform Group of Kansas. He served as one of seven at-large trustees at Johnson County Community College from 2005-’09, a member of the Kansas House from 2007-’08, a delegate to the Kansas Republican Party from 2009-’10, and was founder of the Overland Park Republican Party in 2011. His public policy record is recognized by Americans for Prosperity, the Kansas Association of Broadcasters, the Kansas Press Association, the Kansas Sunshine Coalition for Open Government, the NRA, Kansans for Life, and the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE).