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Overland Park, Kansas: 48% of all likely 2012 voters are conservative. 66% of Republicans are conservative.

To read more details from our extensive poll of likely 2012 voters in Overland Park, KS, go to StateandLocalEducation.org.  Below is a portion.

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Part 3 of results

Telephone survey among likely 2012 voters in Overland Park, KS.  Conducted Tuesday, August 9, and Wednesday, August 10, by the State and Local Educational Foundation of Kansas.  Margin of error +/- 5.4%.  Party breakdown:  51% Republican, 29% Unaffiliated, 20% and Democratic.  55% Female, and 45% Male.  50% over the age of 50, and 50% under the age of 50.

For detailed accompanying information for comparison and background purposes, click here.  To view part 1 of our results, click here.  To view part 2 of our results, click here.  More information about survey methodology can be found at the bottom of this page.

 

Summary:

- Overland Park:

Our results indicate that 48% of Overland Park’s voters are conservative (among likely November Overland Park voters).  This includes 16% who are “very conservative.”  Thirty-six percent (36%) are moderate, and 16% are either “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.”

Given that Overland Park’s voters supported John McCain over Barack Obama by a 53-46% margin, when the nation voted for Obama by a 53-46% margin, our results are comparable to Gallup’s national numbers.  According to Gallup, 41% of United States adults are conservative.

Other comparisons:

- Our results show 66% of Republicans to be either “very” or “somewhat conservative.”  Gallup’s figure was 71%.

- Gallup found 24% of Republicans to be moderate.  Our number was 29%.

- Among Independents, Gallup found 35% to be conservative, and 44% to be moderate.  We found 34% of Unaffiliated voters to be conservative, and 45% to be moderate.

Age and poltical views:

Among likely 2012 voters in Overland Park, 48% are over the age of 50, and 52% are under the age of 50.  We find that over-50 likely Overland Park voters are only slightly more conservative than under-50 Overland Park voters.  However, it is within the margin of error in our sub-sample (there was a sample size of 170 each of over-50 and under-50 voters, with a margin of error of 7.7% for each sub-sample).

Among over-50 voters in Overland Park, 49% are conservative; among than under-50 voters, 46% are conservative.  There are slightly fewer moderate voters among over-50 (35%) than with under-50 voters (37%).  Among over-50 voters, 15% self-identified as liberal; 17% of under-50 likely Overland Park voters are liberal.

- Comparing political views (ideology) nation-wide with Overland Park’s voters:

 

Kansas:

There are actually 20 states which Gallup considers to be more conservative than Kansas.  Gallup ranks Kansas as #21 among the states, in terms of how many voters are considered to be conservative.

Gallup considers 40% of Kansas voters to be conservative, 39% to be moderate, and 19% to be liberal.

According to Gallup, Alabama ranks #1 with 49% of its voters identified as conservative.  Washington, DC, ranks last, with only 23% of its voters considered to be conservative.

 

Nation-wide:

According to an August 1, 2011, report from Gallup, 41% of American adults are conservative, 36% are moderate, and 21% are liberal.

Among all adults:

- 11% are very conservative

- 30% are conservative

- 36% are moderate

- 15% are liberal

- 6% are very liberal

Among Republicans:

- 21% are very conservative

- 50% are conservative

- 24% are moderate

- 3% are liberal

- 1% are very liberal

Among Independent voters:

- 8% are very conservative

- 27% are conservative

- 44% are moderate

- 14% are liberal

- 6% are very liberal

According to an August 18, 2011, report from Rasmussen Reports:

“Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say they are conservative when it comes to fiscal issues such as taxes, government spending and business regulation.  Thirty-seven percent (37%) characterize themselves as moderates in this area, while 14% are fiscal liberals.

When it comes to social issues like abortion, public prayer and church-state topics: 36% say they are conservative, 29% moderate and another 32% liberal.”

More from this August 2011 article by Rasmussen:

“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 28% of Likely Voters say they are both fiscal and social conservatives.  Just 12% say they are liberal in both areas, while 60% are some other combination.”

“Among voters who are conservative on fiscal issues, 64% are also conservative when it comes to social issues.  Twenty-four percent (24%) of fiscal conservatives are moderates on social issues and 11% are liberal.  Among fiscal moderates, 42% of moderate on social issues as well and 39% are social liberals.

As for fiscal liberals, 88% are also liberal on social issues.

More men than women tend to be conservative on both social and fiscal issues.  Voters over 40 are more conservative both fiscally and socially than those who are younger.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Republicans are fiscal conservatives, while a plurality of both Democrats (46%) and voters not affiliated with either major political party (44%) see themselves as moderates on money issues.  As for social issues, two-out-of-three (66%) GOP voters are conservative, while a majority (53%) of Democrats are liberals. Unaffiliated voters are more closely divided.”

 

- Background on Kansas-wide elections and Overland Park elections:

Registration:

State of Kansas and City of Overland Park:

Based on voter registration, Overland Park is technically a more heavily Republican area and less Democratic area, compared to the state of Kansas.  However, the city’s voters often end up being less supportive of Republican candidates, compared to state-wide voters.  Kansas-wide, about 45% of voters are registered as Republicans, 27% are Democratic, and and 28% are Unaffiliated.  In Overland Park, 51% are registered as Republicans, 23% as Democrats, and 26% are either Unaffiliated or another party.  The likely implication:  In Overland Park, a sizeable minority of registered Republican voters probably rarely vote for the conservative and/or Republican candidate.

Nation-wide:

According to an August 1, 2011, article by Rasmussen Reports, about 35% of Americans were considered to be Democrats, 33% were Republicans, and 32% were Independents:

“In July, 34.8% of adults consider themselves to be Democrats, virtually unchanged from 34.7% in June. The number of Republicans fell from 35.6% in May to 34.4% in June to 33.1% in July. That’s the lowest total for the GOP since July 2010. For Democrats, the current results are in the middle of a narrow range they’ve occupied for the first six months of 2011. Voters not affiliated with either party grew from 31.0% in June to 32.1% in July. Over the past year, the gap between the two parties has been two points or less with just two exceptions.”

Click here to view a history of partisan trends going back to 2004, according to Rasmussen Reports.

2008 election review:

President:

In 2008, the nation voted 53% for Democrat Barack Obama and 46% for Republican John McCain.  Kansas as a whole voted for the Republican by a 57-42% margin.  Johnson County voted for the Republican John McCain by a 54-45% margin, out of about 285,000 votes cast.  Overland Park supported the Republican McCain with 53% of the vote, and Democrat Obama with 46%, out of about 120,000 ballots cast.

US Senate:

Kansas voted for incumbent Republican Pat Roberts over Democrat Jim Slattery by a 60-36% margin.  Johnson County supported the Republican by a 58-39% margin.  As well, Overland Park voted for Republican Pat Roberts with 58% of all votes, and Democrat Jim Slattery with 39%.

US Congress:

Johnson County voted to re-elect 3rd District Congressman Dennis Moore, a Democrat, with 51% of the vote, over Republican State Senator Nick Jordan, who received 45% of the vote.  Overland Park was tougher on the Republican:  Democrat Dennis Moore received 52%, and the Republican Nick Jordan received 43%.

2010 election review:

US Senate:

Kansas voted for Republican Jerry Moran with 70% of the vote; Democrat Lisa Johnston received 26%.  Johnson County, out of about 185,000 total votes cast, gave Republican Moran 66% of the vote, and Democrat Johnston 30%.  About 120,000 people voted in Overland Park:  65% of the voters supported Republican Jerry Moran, and Democrat Lisa Johnston was supported by 32% of voters.

US Congress:

When considering the results, note that Republican Kevin Yoder represented an Overland Park Kansas House district from 2002-2010.  Johnson Countyvoted for Kevin Yoder with 65% of the vote, and gave Democrat Stephene Moore 33% of the vote. Similar to the county as a whole, Overland Park voters gave Republican Yoder about 65% of the vote, Democrat Stephene Moore received 33%.


 

 

Question: “In general, how would you describe your political views?”

Ideology (all voters): Count Percent

- Very conservative:                               55      16.2%

 

- Somewhat conservative:                 107      31.5%

 

- Moderate:                                           123      36.2%

 

- Somewhat liberal:                              40      11.8%

 

- Very liberal:                                          15        4.4%

Total:                                     340       100%

Among Republicans               Count Percent

Very conservative:                        46      26.4%

Somewhat conservative:            69      39.7%

Moderate:                                      51      29.3%

Somewhat liberal:                         8        4.6%

Very liberal:                                     0           0%

Total:                             174       100%

[Note: Sample size=174; Margin of error=7.6%]

 

Among Unaffiliateds               Count Percent

Very conservative:                         6      6.1%

Somewhat conservative:           27    27.6%

Moderate:                                    44      44.9%

Somewhat liberal:                     16      16.3%

Very liberal:                                    5      5.1%

 

Total:                               98       100%

[Note: Sample size=98; Margin of error=10.1%]

 

Over age 50                            Count  Percent

Very conservative:                        30    17.7%

Somewhat conservative:            54    31.8%

Moderate:                                      60    35.3%

Somewhat liberal:                       17    10.0%

Very liberal:                                    9        5.3%

 

Total:                             170       100%

[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]

 

Under age 50                         Count  Percent

Very conservative:                       25     14.7%

Somewhat conservative:           53     31.2%

Moderate:                                     63     37.1%

Somewhat liberal:                       23     13.5%

Very liberal:                                     6     3.5%

 

Total:                             170       100%

[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]

 

______________________

Connect with Benjamin Hodge at FacebookTwitterLinkedInThe Kansas Progress, and LibertyLinked. Hodge is President of the State and Local Reform Group of Kansas.  He served as one of seven at-large trustees at Johnson County Community College from 2005-’09, a member of the Kansas House from 2007-’08, a delegate to the Kansas Republican Party from 2009-’10, and was founder of the Overland Park Republican Party in 2011.  His public policy record is recognized by Americans for Prosperity, the Kansas Association of Broadcasters,the Kansas Press Association, the Kansas Sunshine Coalition for Open Government, the NRAKansans for Life, and the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE).

 


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