On October 31, 2010 — the last Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot poll before the November 2, 2011 elections — a sizeable 51% of voters were planning on supporting the Republican candidate, and 39% of voters were planning to support the Democratic candidate.
The 2010 elections were not pro-Republican. The voters went to vote against the far-left, socialist agenda of the Democratic Party and President Obama.
2012 will be completely different. From Rasmussen on Monday, November 21:
For the second week in a row, Democrats and Republicans are essentially tied on the Generic Congressional Ballot, this time for the week ending Sunday, November 20.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election was held now, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead.
What this means is that most Republican elected officials (state or federal) who won in 2010 for the first time, and who are running for re-election in 2012, will need to tell voters not simply THAT they are Republican, but the politicians will also need to tell voters WHAT they believe.
Nation-wide, we’re going to see a lot of Republican state legislators, who won with 55% or less in 2010, lose in 2012 because they misunderstood the voters’ 2010 message as a mandate FOR them, rather than a mandate AGAINST the other guys. Many of these state legislators will only rely on getting 90% of Republican voters to carry them to victory, and they will never get around to introducing themselves to the Independent voters who vote for one party or the other; these Independents often decide the elections.
I do believe these Independent voters are conservative (particularly fiscally conservative), but they’re “independent” for a reason — they’re skeptical of both parties (justifiably).
Here is some of the recent polling history provided by Rasmussen:
Connect with Benjamin Hodge at Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, The Kansas Progress, and LibertyLinked. Hodge is President of the State and Local Reform Group of Kansas. He served as one of seven at-large trustees at Johnson County Community College from 2005-’09, a member of the Kansas House from 2007-’08, a delegate to the Kansas Republican Party from 2009-’10, and was founder of the Overland Park Republican Party in 2011. His public policy record is recognized by Americans for Prosperity, the Kansas Association of Broadcasters,the Kansas Press Association, the Kansas Sunshine Coalition for Open Government, the NRA, Kansans for Life, and the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE).