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Has John McCain Won Florida?

Florida Today has an article today about the state’s early voting:

Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early…

But party breakdowns for turnout aren’t the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats’ 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

By way of comparison, there were a total of about 7.5 million votes cast in Florida in 2004 for the two major party presidential candidates. If the reporting on absentee ballots is correct, and the Los Angeles Times exit poll of early voters is also correct, then McCain currently has a lead of about 400,000 votes after one-third of all Floridians have cast their ballots. (It’s also important to note that about 325,000 of the votes so far are unassigned.)

If McCain is already winning Florida by 400,000 votes, with a third of the eligible voters having cast their ballots, Barack Obama is going to have a hard time prevailing in the state.

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