Today Rasmussen Reports issued their first Election 2010 survey of Missouri's U.S. Senate race that will most likely be between Rep. Roy Blunt (MO-7) and Sec'y of State Robin Carnahan (D-we don't know where she is). The Rasmussen poll shows a dead heat - 46-46 between Blunt and Carnahan. Both of these candidates are well-known names in Missouri, and earlier polls by other polling firms had shown Carnahan with a statistically insignificant one or two-point lead a few months ago.
Rasmussen breaks down the numbers:
Nearly all the numbers in this early survey show an uncommonly close match between two members of well-known Missouri political families. Blunt, for example, leads by 17 points among men, but Carnahan has a 13-point lead among female voters.
Carnahan captures 84% of the state’s Democratic vote, while Blunt nets 85% of the GOP vote. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Blunt by eight points.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Missouri voters have a favorable view of Blunt, with 18% whose opinion of him is very favorable. Thirty-three percent (33%) view him unfavorably, including 15% with a very unfavorable view. Only 10% have no opinion of the Republican hopeful.
Carnahan has 52% favorables and 42% unfavorables. Twenty-three percent (23%) regard her very favorably and 22% very unfavorably. Just six percent (6%) aren’t sure what they think of Carnahan.
The one number that seemed to stand out, as indicated in bold, was the unaffiliated number, which showed an 8-point lead for Blunt. This may be a "coal mine canary" indicator of the public's dissatisfaction with the Dems.
The survey looked at other key influences as well. Missouri tends to be a relatively conservative state (MO voted for John McCain in 2008 by a razor-thin margin, with the heavy Republican rural vote barely overcoming the Dem influence in the STL and KC metro areas), so some of the survey results are not surprising. Rasmussen's latest numbers show that Missourians have a very pessimistic view of the economy:
Only nine percent (9%) of Missouri voters say the U.S. economy is in good shape, while 47% view it as poor. Thirty-two percent (32%) say the economy is getting better, but 44% say it’s getting worse.
This attitude is likely driving a negative view of Barack Obama - 44% of Missourians approve of the POTUS's job performance, while 56% disapprove.
Blunt has been traveling the state in early campaign mode, making appearances statewide while still keeping pace with his Congressional duties, particularly in his work on the GOP health care strategy. He has been able to maintain his poll standing with Carnahan despite the sliming he has taken from the leftist "League of Conservation Voters" and "ProVote" (which has been tied to ACORN in some reports). The ACORNites can't be too thrilled with Blunt's weathering of the attacks, as he was one of the early voices calling for ACORN to be investigated for their fraudulent voter registration practices, and he again raised his voice in opposition to the organizations sleazy practices after the recent damning videos emerged.
Roy Blunt continues to show Missourians why a conservative GOP approach to government is the way to go, while all we hear from Robin Carnahan is .... nothing. In August, Rep. Blunt was endorsed by the Redstate.com directors, but... Robin Carnahan's name is still on the milk carton, and she refuses to engage on the issues.
(If you would like to contribute to Rep. Blunt's Senate campaign, please do so at his campaign web site.)