One might look at the latest PPP polling data that shows Roy Blunt down by one point to Robin Carnahan and think “oooh, Roy’s not looking so good”. But a quick peek beneath the results shows otherwise.
Back in January, when PPP first surveyed Missouri voters about a potential Blunt/Carnahan race, the numbers came out 45/44 Carnahan over Blunt. Now? The latest shows Carnahan up 43/42 over Blunt. Of course this is well within the MOE of 3.6%. But consider the environment that exists today in Missouri. The “League of Conservation Voters” has been conducting an extensive ad campaign criticizing Rep. Blunt’s stand against “cap-and-trade” legislation. Blunt has made his opposition to cap-and-trade well-known, pointing out the huge utility bill increases that such a bill would foist upon Missourians and the rest of the country. But despite this effort by the Carnahan-supporting group, Blunt’s numbers have barely budged.
It appears that the negative opinion of Barack Obama’s policies, the Democrat-controlled Congress and the general economic conditions have also impacted the polling data. According to the PPP numbers, Blunt leads Carnahan 44-32% with independent voters. As PPP points out, this is a very similar situation to what occurred in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections. PPP’s numbers also show strong disapproval for Barack Obama’s performance (-9 pts) and a 21-point disapproval gap for PelosiObamaReidCare.
One other positive in this survey for Blunt: the results sampled more Democrats than Republicans by four points, 36-32. As expected, the vast majority of Republicans chose Blunt (82%), and Democrats chose Carnahan (83%). There appears to be no practical reason for PPP to oversample Democrats, as Missouri was a dead-even state in the 2008 election, and there is no reason that should have changed in the past year. So even with the Democrat numbers advantage in the survey, Blunt still remained within a point of Carnahan.
Combine these factors, and this is a positive poll for the Blunt campaign. Robin Carnahan is still AWOL on the issues – we still don’t know Where in the World she is. She continues to evade questions on real issues, such as health care socialization and cap and trade. We can be fairly certain that she’s a card-check supporter, since she received the endorsement of Jimmy Hoffa and the Teamsters. And given the negative opinion Missourians have of Obama’s policies, which Carnahan is bound to support, she has a serious problem.
Once Carnahan comes out of her fetal position and begins engaging on issues, Missouri will discover that she is ever bit as much of a leftist as Barack Obama, and the polling data should begin to swing decisively in Roy Blunt’s direction.