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Presidential Race Update – Toss Up States & Electoral College Breakdown

Mitt Romney drew a crowd of 30,000, in West Chester, Ohio on Friday night.  The massive crowd included Sen. John McCain, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Ohio Governor John Kasich and Speaker of the House John Boehner.

Additional star power was injected into the event with an appearance by musician Kid Rock, who opened the event with a 40-minute concert. Kid Rock ended his show with the “Born Free” song that the Romney campaign has used as an anthem at its rallies. He exited the stage with an uplifting “Go Romney, we can get this done Ohio.”

President Obama, also in Ohio on Friday, fell short of the crowd of 30,000 that Romney drew but did manage to fill a Lima, Ohio high school gym and an attached overflow room.  Of particular note, Obama is the first sitting Democrat president to visit Lima, Ohio since Harry Truman visited in 1948.

Most polls show President Obama with a narrow lead nationally and in Ohio, but the margins in seven key swing states are less than 3 percent, or within the polls’ margins of error.

Electoral college projections currently show the president with 237 electoral votes and Romney with 206. The number of electoral votes needed to win the White House is 270. There are 8 toss up states, totaling 95 electoral college votes. Those states are listed below, with the number of each state’s electoral votes in parentheses followed by the percentage of support each presidential candidate has.

Toss Ups

CO (9)
Romney 50%
Obama 47%

FL (29)
Romney 50%
Obama 48%

IA (6)
Romney 49%
Obama 48%

NH (4)
Romney 52%
Obama 48%

NV (6)
Romney 50%
Obama 48%

OH (18)
Romney 50%
Obama 48%

VA (13)
Romney 50%
Obama 47%

WI (10)
Romney 49%
Obama 49%

Michigan isn’t included as a toss up state, but though Obama is ahead by five points, this is the closest the race in Michigan has been all year.

Rasmussen Reports – Electoral College Breakdown

Obama: 237 – Romney: 206 – Toss-up: 95

Safe Romney (167)

Likely Romney (21)

Leans Romney (18)

Toss-up (95)

Leans Obama (53)

Likely Obama(12)

Safe Obama (172)

On Friday, Scott Rasmussen wrote: “It’s somewhat surprising that heading into the final weekend of the election season, we are unable to confidently project who is likely to win the White House.”

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