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2011 ELECTION PREVIEW

The last refuge of the Democrat party in the south was the state legislatures. The good ol’ boys and the so-called conservative democrats hung in there, keeping up close contacts with the local gentry and continually declaring their independence from the “liberals” of the national party. But one by one the southern states turned red.On November the 2nd Alabama gave the GOP a 66 to 39 margin in the state house and a 22 to 12 margin in the senate. North Carolina, when the dust would clear from the stampeding elephants,would have a republican majority of 67 to 52 in the house and 31 to 19 in the senate.Although the GOP gains were considerable in Arkansas, we will have to wait for 2012 and hope for a pickup of 3 senate seats and 6 house seats from the donkey party. There will be no major statewide race in 2012 in Bill Clinton’s old stamping ground. 

Now let’s turn to 2011. Now that Alabama and North Carolina have joined Florida,Georgia,South Carolina,Tennessee and Texas with republican majorities, Virginia,Mississippi and Louisiana are on tap November of 2011. In Louisiana the defection of one of the 13 dem legislators nationwide who switched parties has given the GOP a 51 to 50 majority, although 4 independents who caucused with republicans gave them de facto control.A pickup of 4 senate seats in 2011 will close the deal.In Virginia the republican party has an ample margin of 59 to 39 in the assembly, but needs to pick up 3 senate seats from the dems.In Mississippi the task is harder in the state house,as the current dem margin is 72 to 50. However the donkey has only 2 more seats in the senate to bray about. Outside of the south there is New Jersey where Chris Christie will try to paint that blue state red.  As far as the gubernatorial races in Mississippi and Kentucky are concerned ,it’s far too early as the nominees are not known yet,but in Louisiana the reelection of Bobby Jindal looks like a lead pipe cinch.

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