Today is a BIG day! According to the U.S Census Bureau, the population on 7/2/2012 will be 313,857,116. See the stats here: http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Strangely it states that the projections do not include members of the Armed Forces overseas, their dependents, or other U.S. citizens residing outside the United States. I can't explain why the Bureau eliminated our most honored but that's besides the point. And approximately 240 million are 18 years of age and over.
As we are all coming to terms with the Supreme Court's shocking decision and have started to hear the Left try to politically spin this more ways than a carnival ride, I thought it would be fun to look at this logically or mathematically. I'm not an economist, statistician, or a rocket scientist therefore I'll have to rely on the government and the White House Chief of Staff, Jack Lew, on which to base my formulas.
First, Jack Lew told us on FoxNews Sunday that the law cuts $4,000 for the middle-class. He also said that since it's based on Romneycare and the CBO agrees, "that this Bill is a penalty for the 1% of free-riders: those that can afford to buy it but choose not to; to be clear, that is 1% of the population", which they say is the same percentage as Romneycare.
The CBO reported that for the next ten years, including the costs of implementation, the cost will be $2.6 trillion.
The Congressional Budget Office does 10-year forecasts, so now that it’s 2012, they’re looking out to 2022, when some of the biggest fiscal damage from ObamaCare reveals itself. What they found is very ugly indeed, as Fox News reports:
In a largely overlooked segment of the CBO’s update to the budget outlook released Tuesday, the independent arm of Congress found that the bill will cost $1.76 trillion between now and 2022.
That only counts the cost of coverage, not implementation costs and other changes.
“The bill spends more than the president promised, it covers fewer people — probably 2 million fewer people — and it taxes more than was expected,” said Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee.
What if we throw in those implementation costs? Where does that leave us, Senator Sessions?
“The full accounting of the bill is $2.6 trillion. That’s a fair and accurate analysis of what the bill would cost, according to CBO,” Sessions said, noting how the cost dwarfs the fight over the 10-year debt reduction plan debated last year.
“We spent a whole summer fighting over a way to reduce spending by $2.1 trillion and here this bill is going add $2.6 trillion more in spending.
Also I read in the actual CBO report, it states that 26-27 million people will remain without coverage when all is said and done which I'll round to 30 million. Also it states that 3-4 million will lose their employer health insurance which will put them on CHIP or Medicaid.
Here's the mumbo jumbo from the CBO, newly revised March 2012 Report: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/03-13-Coverage%20Estimates.pdf:
Compared with prior law, the ACA is now estimated by CBO and JCT to reduce the number of nonelderly people without health insurance coverage by 30 million to 33 million in 2016 and subsequent years, leaving 26 million to 27 million nonelderly residents uninsured in those years (see Table 3, at the end of this report). The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance is projected to rise from 82 percent in 2012 to 93 percent by 2022.
According to the current estimates, from 2016 on, between 20 million and 23 million people will receive coverage through the new insurance exchanges, and 16 million to 17 million people will be enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP. Also, 3 million to 5 million fewer people will have coverage through an employer compared with the number under prior law.
So I'll add the 23 million via the new exchanges and the 17 million via Medicaid and CHIP, for a total of 40 million people will now have insurance coverage. I guess the purpose of the Bill is to cover 40 million additional people at the expense of others. No one has said that but isn't that the real reason they are setting dynamite to our whole system, for 40 million people?
My Assumptions for the next ten years:
So according to Jack Lew, we are to assume that those 31.4 million darn free-riders are the people that caused the president et al to blow up our entire health insurance system and they must be penalized! We can not have this in a fair system for all!
The CBO states that 40 million people will now have insurance that didn't before the ACA regardless of the vehicle.
There are about 240 million adults in the U.S. and 50% pay taxes so 120 million will pay the freight.
The cost for the next ten years with implementation is $2.6 trillion.
I'm going to round off numbers to make it easy for our Fun with Math Blackboard session:
$2.6 trillion / 31.4 million free riders = $82,803 per free-rider
$2.6 trillion / 40 million newly insured = $65,000 per new insurance card holder
$2.6 trillion / 120 million taxpayer adults in the US = $21,667 per taxpayer (of course this assumes all adults have an income which when you read the last depressing CBO report at the end of this post becomes an unrealistic assumption)
Yet somehow, the Democrats tell us that this Bill will miraculously reduce the deficit and you the people will like getting free contraceptives and such. Once and for all, this doesn't discriminate against women who get charged more just for being a woman! Never mind that the HHS already said mammograms aren't really necessary and other tests for men aren't needed, therefore won't be paid for in the government dictated plans. One-size fits all as if it were a T-shirt.
The government spent $1.2 trillion on stimulus one and two and it would have been put to better use by depositing $3,822 in an HSA for every person in the US. Other than not stimulating the unions or the bankrupt solar company slush funds, we'd all be better off and happier, knowing we could pay for a routine Dr. office visit out of pocket or buy a policy on our own.
My non-scientific conclusion: The Democrats think we are so stupid to believe all of this great stuff is free. Free to all the 50% that don't pay taxes. Trillions of dollars to the deficit is magically free to the American people. And due to their magnanimous generosity, we shall not bite the hand that feeds us. I can't even tell what mathematical formula makes sense to judge the cost per person but know it is a huge TAX on all Americans. Their hope is to fool the sheeple into thinking there really is a free lunch. But no matter what newfangled math they use to convince us, we know that hobbits don't exist and there is no such thing as a free lunch.
And just to leave you with one last somber fact from the same CBO report:
Changes in the Economic Outlook
In its January 2012 economic forecast, CBO revised its projections of certain economic factors that will affect the number of people eligible for subsidized health insurance coverage under the ACA through Medicaid, CHIP, or the health insurance exchanges. In that forecast, the unemployment rate is higher throughout the projection period than it was in last year’s forecast. CBO also now estimates that wages and salaries will be lower than it previously anticipated.
Those changes yield an increase in the projected number of people eligible for Medicaid and CHIP as a result of the ACA. They also yield a small reduction in the number projected to be eligible for subsidies for purchasing insurance through the exchanges. That reduction is the net effect of two changes resulting from the forecast of lower incomes: More people are now projected to be eligible for Medicaid or CHIP rather than for exchange subsidies, and at the same time, some people whose incomes were expected to be too high for them to be eligible for exchange subsidies are now projected to be eligible for them.
I feel so much better now that the newly Constituted Unaffordable Care Act is a not a tax, tax and will save the American people big bucks. Thanks to Reid, Pelosi and Obama we are now broke no matter what they call the Act. I just hope we get the final curtain call.