16 Reasons Hillary will lose – IF …
... we pick the right guy for the job. Guess who I think that is LOLOL
Myra’s diary is basically a give up and let’s go home kind of attitude and I think it’s because there’s a ridiculous urge on our side to basically put blinders on and avoid thinking outside of the box. So let me reply point by point to her arguments and show why all of them are basically wrong.
1. Social movements?
social movements are bogus. Email, twitter, etc just do one thing – they activate the base. Show me a single independent voter who picked Obama over Romney because of a tweet or a mailing. You can’t – the base votes for their guy/gal, and the indie voters observe the base on each side to see who is behaving.
2. Pop Culture and Celebrity crowning
If they controlled everything, we wouldn’t have the House, Bush wouldn’t have been elected, etc. This is a problem and it does exist but it’s hardly the end of the argument. We have fox, talk radio, and plenty of other venues to make our case. Again, this point is just about turning out the base – not winning the election, which requires swing voters.
Who exactly does that group think? Show me who thinks that it’s Hillary’s time who actually matters. Bill Clinton? This seems like a illusion to me. In politics, the Presidency is the biggest prize and no one gets to walk up and take it – everyone fights tooth and nail. On both sides. This reminds me of how liberals claim that it was the Bush family’s “turn” and then how it was “McCain’s turn” and then how it was “Romney’s turn”. Look, primary elections either matter or they don’t. If you are arguing that they don’t, then why do we even bother? Just shut RedState down now.
One solution: RNC should hire Patrick Ruffini, and give him $25 million. Now. I guarantee you we will have something ready to rock and roll by Election time to match what the Dems do. Patrick. Ruffini. Also: Josh Trevino, Ben Howe, Ben Domenech, Moe Lane, Brad Jackson. These are teh tech gurus on our side that need to be hired, tapped, locked, and loaded.
GMAFB are you kidding me??? If there’s one thing we should be able to do, it’s raise money. And I’m not buying the early-money argument either. The independents don’t make up their mind until after the first public debate. All that early money is wasted if spent on independents. Its just to activate the base. Yo think Obama’s early money really changed anyone’s mind from thinking Romney was a nice guy to a mean jerk? People thought he was a mean jerk anyway. The money was not a part of that.
6. The EC
Look, the EC is not slanted, it’s that we need to win swing states or we lose. look at the working class midwest, the people who voted for Reagan, the people voting both for Scott Walker AND Obama. They are the people we need to persuade, do that and the center of the map turns red from blue. We can and we should win WI, MI, IN, MN, OH, PN, and IA. How do we win those states? By putting on a 10-gallon hat and talking texas? um, no. We do it by persuading people that conservative policy is good for them middle class, and we persuade by SHOWINg them where it works. Also, don’t bring up “demographic growth” and “voting patterns”. Hispanics don’t vote their strength at all.
7. Hillary’s primary
Why are we discussing a Democratic primary? It’s irrelevant. What advantage does Hillary have if she doesn’t even know who her opponent is? And Biden does more harm than good.
Hispanics don’t vote. Independent voters and white voters matter.
9. African Americans, Asians
They don’t matter. Canceled out by evangelicals, the military, farmers, small business owners, etc. They have their blocs, we have ours. Activate the base, and then we have to fight to win the independents. That’s how we win.
How many average working people have even heard of the Clinton Global Initiative? It sounds like a comic book villain. I bet people confuse it with Bill Gates anyway. Look, Clinton is no spring chicken either so don’t expect him to put in long hours on the trail. He did one speech at the DNC convention and then vanished. Unless they get a popemobile for him or something to trot him around.
Plus, BIG issue is that Hillary wants to win this on her own. Not because Bill handed it to her. Expect Bill to be on back burner unless he’s needed to warm up a crowd or something.
11. Third Term
Your argument makes no sense. If Obama’s final term tanks, then Hillary will run as his third term? why would she do that?
And with 16 years in between, the question of Bill’s third term is totally out. That’s just weaksauce. Just look at a pic of Bill and Hill in 2000 compared to now and you’ll see a huge decline. I don’t think that’s a comparison they will want to encourage.
12. Weak bench
well, maybe I agree with you mostly here, except for one obvious exception. Apart from Scott Walker, there isn’t anyone who has demonstrated the ability to a. activate teh base, b. appeal to independent voters, c. has a proven record of conservative policy that works, d. battle-tested against teh full weight of the Liberal Media Hype Machine. Walker stands alone in his qualifications and his experience and his ability to persuade the voters we need to WIN.
13. GOP primary
I think this is a repeat of #7, but ok lets talk it again. Theres a long GOP primary, and that’s how we do it. There was a long primary in 2008 for the Dems too. I don’t see why a long primary is necessarily bad – it can be, but it doesn’t need to be. However, we can certainly short circuit the process if we are smart about a, building a solid organization like Obama did before winning the primary, ie his team that focused on how to win caucuses etc and demographic targeting (did I mention PATRICK RUFFINI yet) and b, coming to early concensus about who is best qualified to win instead of encouraging 2-bit blowhards like Cain and Bachman or self-obsessed preening types like Perry. I’d like to see a primary between Jindal, Walker and Christie, that’s it. How awesome would that be!!
14. Bring us togther
do we want to be brought together with people who kill babies and hate freedom?
The base doesn’t care about this. The independent voters dont rank “political division” high on their list of issues either, they just care about jobs and the economy. So lets not worry about who sings Kumbaya the bestest.
15. Calling her old
ok, let’s not do that then, ok? ok.
16. weak arguments
we don’t need weak or strong arguments against hillary. we need arguments against liberalism. We need arguments FOR conservatism. We shoudl be running teh same campaign no matter who the Dems put up for sale. We need to be telling our base, yes we will get it right this time. We need to tell the independents, look we CAN do it too and here’s our proof.
Bottom line: Want to win? Want to beat Hillary? Win over independent voters by showing them conservativism policy works. Win over working class white folks by showing them we care more about the middle class than they do. Win over undecided people who hate politics by showing them true issues that aren’t partisan. The way to do those things? Get a guy who has done it before.
There really isn’t ANYONE else.