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Rick Santorum May be the Next GOP Nominee

In early October I described the potential for a Rick Santorum Victory.   The post (http://www.redstate.com/chrysostom15/2011/10/07/the-case-for-sen-rick-santorum/) relied on the idea of a late surge by Santorum, causing a surprise Iowa win.

Such a victory appeared a long-shot at the time, but events are playing themselves out to suggest a Santorum victory may be possible.

Bachmann’s campaign has completely imploded.  A PAC that supported her now supports Romney.  Her staff and supporters are leaving her for others.  She is running out of money, and has no chance of winning Iowa.  Anything short of winning Iowa ends her campaign.  Her campaign knows she will be dropping out within 1 week of today.  She should have dropped out already; she was not ready to run for president and needs to have state-wide elected experience and a record of accomplishment.

Rick Perry’s campaign has already suggested he may drop out after Iowa, and that is also highly likely.  At this point he stands no real chance of winning Iowa or coming in 2nd.   He will likely come in 4-6th place.  He may finish above Gingrich and/or Bachmann, but it does not really matter.  He is single digits in NH and SC, and a 3rd place Iowa finish — which is the best he is hoping for — is not enough to make him a serious contender to win the nomination.  Perry is also a serious contender and a real potential VP or future president.  4 or 8 years from now, Perry could run again and win.  He has learned a lot and built a solid base to run from in the future.  I doubt he will continue the campaign beyond where he has a chance to win.  For all his mistakes, this campaign was a real learning experience for him.  He is getting much better at debates.

Gingrich still polls well in SC; but (like Bachmann and Perry) has about a 0% chance of winning Iowa.  Though he is doing better in NH than Perry, Bachmann, or Santorum, Gingrich will not win in NH either.  This puts him essentially all-in for SC.  Sadly, if he loses Iowa badly, he will likely lose SC also.

Santorum’s rise leaves him the chance to fill the void that will be left by the fall of the remaining conservative-leaning candidates.  Santorum now stands in 3rd place, with the strongest momentum in Iowa.  Should he somehow beat Romney and Paul and win Iowa; he would go on to win SC.

A win in Iowa and SC would be enough to make Santorum the conservative candidate going into super Tuesday and beyond.  The calendar this year give most of the delegates later in the process, giving him a fair amount of time to shine.

I would like to take a few seconds and share that Senator Rick Santorum is far more electable than he is given credit for.  He served 12 years as Senator in a blue state, and did so as a conservative.  As a comparison, Romney only actually served 4 years in office in Mass, never ran for re-election, and lost in 1994.  He replaced a GOP governor.  Santorum — in my opinion — is far more electable than is Romney.

People need to remember who Bob Casey is.  Bob Casey is pro-life, pro-gun, and in his election as state treasurer (the election he was in before running against Santorum) he set the state’s record for the largest margin of victory.  Bob Casey is the most popular politician in PA; and running against him would be like a Democrat trying to run against Ronald Reagan in the GOP Alabama Primary — impossible.    And remember that Santorum lost in 2006, the same year when the GOP lost like 8 seats.  And remember than Santorum entered that campaign as the #1 democratic target because democrats were concerned that Santorum would be a very strong GOP presidential nominee in2008, were he to win his seat again in 2006.  That is why they recruited the strongest democrat (who didn’t even want to run for the senate), and they funded and cleared the field for him.

Santorum is also a conservative.  He was a conservative in the House, and a conservative in the Senate.  He stuck to those values and remained an all-around conservative his entire career.

I just had to say those things before people start attacking Santorum due to the fact that their 1st choice candidate is not named Rick Santorum.

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