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If Newt wants to stop Romney, Newt Should Drop out and endorse Santorum On March 16

The way primary math works out is such that for much of the primary season it does not hurt to have 2 conservatives splitting the vote.  Where it matters, however, is with winner-take-all states and winner-take-all districts.

 

On March 17, Santorum will win Missouri.  On the 18th Romney will win another non-state that shouldn’t be voting.  On the 20th Illinois has Gingrich at 12 percent, and Santorum is 4 percent behind Romney.  This state awards most delegates district-by-district.  Romney will win Chicago, and Santorum elsewhere.  In this state, Gingrich remaining in the race would cost the Santorum the state.  Gingrich working for Santorum, would flip the state to Santorum and be a big boost.

Louisiana is solid Santorum on the 24th.

On April 3th Wisconsin is winner-take-all and is 42 delegates.  If Gingrich is gone, these are a sure-thing for Santorum. The same day, Romney will win Maryland and DC.

 

ON April 24th come several states.  New York which is proportional, but should lean Romney.  Pennsylvania which should give the vast majority of its votes to Santorum based on having at-large delegates, and winner-take-all at the district level, and with Santorum having a good lead.  CT, RI, and DE also vote, but give fewer delegates; the majority of those will go Romney.

May 8th will give Santorum wins in North Carolina, Indiana, and West Virginia.  West Virginia is winner-take-all for Santorum.

Then we have Oregon which will go Romney; Kentucky which is Santorum;  Arkansas which is Santorum; and that leaves us with one prize left for May: Texas.

Texas is winner-take-all by district with a state-wide bonus.  Districts are hand-made in Texas to promote election Republicans.  The maps so far show Romney does best in Democratic districts.  So, it is actually very much possible for Santorum — if Perry backs him — to win 2/3 or more of TX delegates.

June 5th is California.  If Gingrich supporters move to Santorum, delegates will be divided between the two of them in a way that likely gives Romney most delegates; but that keeps it reasonable.  If Gingrich stays in, Romney will win the election on June 5th.

For the remaining states: New Jersey and Utah are winner-take-all states that will give Romney 90 Delegates.  South Dakota, Montana, and New Mexico are proportional.

 

When we look at this calendar, we see that many states have winner-take-all by district.  Gingrich dropping out would allow Santorum to win more delegates in those states than Santorum and Gingrich combined would win.

 

There is one other factor: money.  If one reads the public disclosure reports, it has become clear that –should Gingrich drop out — Santorum will be on an equal funding footing as Romney.  Last month Romney raised 11.5 million and Santorum raised 9 million.  Romney has tapped-out many donors and is facing the same problem Clinton did in 2008.  Santorum’s money is mainly from smaller donors who will give again.

 

Finally, there is one other key question.  Gingrich has a number of great supporters.  Rick Perry, Fred Thompson, Todd Palin, etc.  Perry alone could make a huge difference in Texas and elsewhere.  Not only with votes, but also with fund raising.

 

The math does not add up for Gingrich staying in.  Not just because his negatives are so high, but because Santorum is now the clear alternative to Romney.

 

I want to end this post by saying that I think Santorum is better than Romney.  1- Santorum is the stronger candidate.  Santorum is more electable for Ohio.  Santorum forces Obama to spend money on a number of mid-west states.  2- Santorum would be the better president.  I’ve heard some folks say Santorum was a fiscal moderate; not true.  He was always the most conservative member of the Senate leadership while he was in the Senate leadership.  Yes, he was a team player and did go along with Bush on many signature Bush issues.  However, a party divided cannot stand.  Had Santorum opposed Bush (like McCain did), he would hurt the conservative cause.  Every time Santorum voted to raise the debt; it was always to fund Iraq and Afghanistan.  Romney, meanwhile, was a horrible governor who raised state revenue and signed Romneycare.  Romney would be a horrible president.

 

So, I urge Gingrich, and his supporters to join Santorum.  Divided conservatives will lose; united we can win.

 

Finally, Gingrich and Perry are both conservatives and if the back Santorum, Santorum will listen to them.  There is nothing saying they cannot agree to back him with certain conditions and negotiate an agreement.  Then, when elected they can hold him to it.  McCain made an agreement with Bush that Bush would sign the campaign finance reform.  Bush hatted it, but agreed to get McCain’s backing.  Nothing stops Gingrich and Perry from making that deal with Santorum.

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