This race is very, very much winnable.
Why? Turnout. According to some experts, Tuesday's vote may be a RECORD LOW TURNOUT.
With only 22% of vote by mail ballots turned in so far many people won't vote at all and many more will bring their absentees with them on Election Day. There are many reasons why, mainly the lack of any real serious race for governor on the Democrat side and the huge amounts of negative advertising in the Republican governor's race combined with the lack of any real exciting propositions on the June ballot.
With the extremely low turnout, this leads one expert to say: "If the trend continues, it will be good news for candidates and causes that have worked seniors and party regulars especially hard." That would be our campaign.
I cannot overstate the importance of this -- turnout completely overwhelms the polling models and will cause unexpected results on Election Day. For instance, in our internal poll taken on May 19-20, we were leading in two interesting categories: those who hadn't voted in the last two elections (a potential disaffected Tea Party surrogate population) and those who were absolutely committed to a specific candidate.
Also, the last Field Poll shows signs of major movement for us:
http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2338.pdf, with Fiorina at 37%, Campbell at 22% and DeVore at 19%, a more than doubling of support from the last poll taken in March.
More importantly, our positive name ID has spiked, as the Field Poll says: "DeVore is still the least known of the GOP senatorial candidates, with 51% of likely GOP primary voters unable to offer an opinion of him. However, among those able to rate him, opinions are very positive – 41% favorable and 8% unfavorable. This is a big improvement from last March when just 22% could rate him and opinions divided 11% positive and 11% negative."
Lastly, we have two ads up on Fox News in half of the state, with ads running on major talk radio stations over large population areas too. Our sign crews are very energetic and our call centers are working hard.
If team DeVore stays focused we will win this election.
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