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State of Louisiana House Races

Looks like only two races haven’t already been decided, so lets blow through the already decided races where I will not refer to funding.  Remember that state qualifying is just a few days from now.

  • CD-1 Steve Scalise vs. likely challenger Libertarian Gary King.  I’m sure there will be a token Dem in this very conservative district.
  • CD-2 Cedric Richmond (D) vs. likely Gary Landrieu (D).  This district is centered in New Orleans.  Landrieu is a cousin of mayor Mitch and his big sis Mary.  He’s a perennial candidate who never wins.
  • CD-3 Charles Boustany (R) is the only one who filed with FEC in this fairly conservative district.
  • CD-4 John Fleming (R), and likely some unknown last minute Dem will file, maybe a Libertarian just for giggles.

Now for the competitive races.

CD-5 I know very little about the competition.  Last Fall, two Libertarians combined to receive 0.80% of the vote.  This is definitely bible country, and mostly agrarian, including forestry.  The mostly cotton fields were turned into corn fields over the last decade.

  • Incumbent via special election last Fall, Vance “The Kissing Congressman” McAllister (R) leads in polling but only has $233 in his warchest as of Pre-Primary filing as of 8/2.  BYE BYE.
  • Zach Dasher (R) had $215K as of August 2nd, he is a 1st cousin of the Robertsons of Duck Dynasty
  • Harris Brown (R) had $211K as of August 2nd.
  • Ralph Abraham MD (R) had $122K as of August 2nd
  • Ed Tarpley (R) had $6K as of August 2nd
  • Jamie Mayo (D) had $19,500 as of August 2nd, including $5K from Mary Landrieu’s Jazz PAC (she obviously needs a Dem to run in this race)
  • There are others but none have filed with FEC.

Now for the big fight, CD-6, listed by funding, burn rate expressed is for July.

  • Garret Graves (R) Baton Rouge. $636K as of Aug 2nd with burn rate of $144K.  Graves has a lot of love from small business owners for his expediency in helping their problems with Feds while a congressional aide.  Yes he is a conservative.
  • Dan Claitor (R) Baton Rouge. $79K as of Aug 2nd with burn rate of $65K.  Claitor is a Baton Rouge attorney who owns a bookstore specializing in legal tomes.  He is also a sitting state senator.  He’s a moderate.
  • Paul Dietzel II (R) Baton Rouge. $70K as of Aug 2nd with a burn rate of $52K.  Dietzel impressed early on with one heck of a coalition of endorsements and campaign launch (almost a year after he filed with FEC).  If anything he has engaged a lot of young folks into being active in his campaign, most seem to be very young.  I’ve met several at various GOP functions around Baton Rouge.  Good folks.
  • Lenar Whitney (R), Thibodaux. $67K as of Aug 2nd with a burn rate of $62K.  Conservative state legislator but on the southern edge of the district.  Graves likely gets most of the support from that area since he appears to already have it from those local coastal elected officials.
  • Craig McCulloch (R) Ethel (northern rural area). $30K as of Aug 2nd with a burn rate of $52K.  Craig is a small business owner and a good conservative who would be a very viable candidate in a less crowded race.
  • Trey Thomas (R), Baton Rouge. $16K as of Aug 2nd with a burn rate of $136K.  Trey is a good candidate from the black demographic but EWE has most of it.
  • Capt. Bob Bell (ret) (R), Baton Rouge. $79 as of Aug 2nd and well burn rate if only office supplies eats that up.  Bob is a longtime member of Tea Party of Louisiana whose leadership has been well known to be for hire by candidates for robocalls, and other campaign activities.  It consists of about half dozen guys who meet for lunch once a week.  He’s somewhat of a nutter.  If he breaks 1% I’d be shocked if he qualifies with the state.  He calls himself a Tea Party Activist but just a yeehaw kinda guy.  He is a retired Navy JAG lawyer.
  • Norman Clark (R) from Livingston Parish east of Baton Rouge.  Never filed any financial report.  Nice rural guy but may do better than Bell though likely doesn’t break 1% if he qualifies with the state.
  • Edwin (The Silver Zipper) Edwards (D)  $145K as of Aug 2nd with a burn rate of $41K.  The ex convict former governor himself who cannot run for office because of his conviction except for Federal office due no laws anywhere in the nation against him running.  He’ll get the black Democrat vote but most white Democrat voters will look for another candidate.  BTW, some black Maness (for Senate) supporters have voiced their backing for him

IMO, the race is who runs against Edwards in December.  He’ll get close to 40% of the vote.  IMO, the other spot will be between Graves, Dietzel, Claitor and possibly McCulloch.  Graves has enough funding to be in the runoff, but the other candidates are spending more than they brought in in July, a lot more.  Three are solid conservatives, Claitor is moderate.

 

 

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