There is a lot of talk about the real delegate counts after a few different sources published various counts, there is also a lot of people wondering about how many delegates are pledged in what I call “The Heart” for various candidates. Finally some of the Trump team are already trying to talk about how Ted Cruz is supposedly locked out numerically and are trying to use this to end the election (lol). I debunk myths, show figures, and break it down for you here.
First we need a source for basic information. I use Green Papers for my initial source of information then expand from it. They are in general fairly accurate, however even they have some flaws such as North Dakota and Louisiana. Their current breakdown has 544 Delegates for Cruz, 144 for Kasich, and 758 for Trump. They have some errors which I will note and source. They also do not cover which Delegates may be bound currently but are to be released and the level of commitment they have to a candidate.
Next we need to cover the errors. Louisiana has 5 listed as uncommitted and 5 for Rubio. (link). In fact those 10 are all Cruz supporters so we have an immediate +5 for Cruz and an additional +5 in second round voting. Then we have North Dakota. North Dakota is “unbound” but we have a number of the Ted Cruz “Slate” which was approved by the Convention. In total 18 Delegates from the Cruz slate were selected, and an additional 4 delegates are capable of being listed as “Likely Cruz” without worry. The remaining 5 are “Very Unlikely Trump” which means they can go Cruz or Establishment.
Then there is Colorado which shows 3 “available” delegates. In fact in an unusual twist there are 4 delegates listed as “Unpledged”, the two RNC persons are listed as ‘unpledged’ and there is a vacancy in the RNC 3 slots. Now due to news reports those unpledged are mostly being tied to Ted Cruz. However Green Papers is not fully committing the delegates to Ted Cruz.
I am going to cover only the States I have factual information for, which means Oregon my home State, despite knowledge of the setting here, will not be included. I am also going to do something no one else will do. I am going to include possibilities if Rubio formally ends his campaign before the Convention and release his delegates. This is IMPORTANT for reasons as will be explained.
The following States allot Delegates either on Ballot or directly take the Candidates Slate: Alabama, Idaho, Ohio, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Wyoming, Wisconsin, and West Virginia.
The following States are delegate voting upwards States of Interest: Colorado, Michigan, Hawaii, and Missouri.
Other interesting States:
Nevada will recalculate on May 8th for any candidates who have suspended their campaigns. This should result in 21 Trump, 9 Cruz.
New York’s Republican Party has a history of extreme liberalism, where some of their candidates have been more to the left than that of Democrats. I am allotting ALL of the Delegates as “Likely Trump”. This is not the bound positions, but the 2nd vote choices.
Puerto Rico does not appear to have an unbind system, those 23 Delegates are considered bound no matter what for Rubio in my calculations. Tennessee voted in 7 delegates at National that would be for Trump normally. They are still bound for two votes, but are Cruz people (Used as an example of various wins going on).
BOUND AND PLEDGED
Trump currently has 763 Bound Delegates and 1 Unbound Delegate for a total of 764.
Ted Cruz currently has 542 Bound Delegates and 70 Unbound Delegates for a total of 612.
Now things get interesting if Rubio drops out. Kasich is presumed to support Trump and Rubio to support Cruz, but it is the delegates that matter. I examined in depth the Kasich Slate he submitted in Ohio. These are pure Establishment types. There is no chance they are going over to Trump. It is in this instance that the Slates matter, and the candidate selected Slates are the most important, followed by Slates selected in Conventions. Note New York would under this go completely to Trump (New York is not yet voted, any Delegates Kasich obtained though would be Trumps).
I sincerely think Rubio will drop out when it is very clear that Ted Cruz has the required wins in the various States to ensure that Trump does not win first ticket and that Ted Cruz has secured the individual delegates (as people) for himself to a level that if released it would not endanger Ted Cruz.
I am only adding the Rubio votes in areas where I have positive information that Ted Cruz has already secured those delegates in the conventions. For example Louisiana, S. Carolina, and Iowa. I concede liberal Hawaii to Trump as well with this example.
This changes the calculations to:
Trump currently has 763 Bound Delegates and 2 Unbound Delegates for a total of 765.
Ted Cruz currently has 542 and 154 unbound delegates for a total of 696.
Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 765 Delegates.
So Ted Cruz will not be mathematically challenged out after New York.
So we look at a Contested Convention. Interestingly if left intact Rule 40B if left intact would likely stop Trump and Kasich regardless of the outcome of any voting.
40(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
I do not think this rule will be used.
So we need to look at a Contested Convention VERY CLOSELY. In this Ted Cruz has won Washington, Wisconsin, Idaho, Iowa, Tennessee, Louisiana, South Carolina, Wyoming, North Dakota, Georgia, Virginia, Missouri, Texas, Arizona, and Colorado. He is projected to win Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Oregon, and due to a fumble by Trump California as well. Trump gets New York, New Hampshire, Michigan, West Virginia.
Now not all wins are total, but it is safe to presume that Ted Cruz is getting approximately 70% of the delegates statistically. This would be 772 of 1103 in the Cruz listed States. Trump has probably got 216 Delegates currently. Of the 833 Delegates remaining it is likely Trump secures New Jersey, while Rhode Island and West Virginia remain unknown mostly. These Candidate Slate/Voted Delegate States account for 104 more Delegates. Between Trump and Ted Cruz there is a very high probability of 1092 Delegates being secured. Given the success of the Ted Cruz team it is very likely they can secure 300 more Delegates off of the Slates which would deny Kasich, or any other Establishment candidate, a chance to steal it from Ted Cruz. Oh and it would win him the nomination. Minor point 😉
Current + Projected Delegate Count in a Contested Convention is Cruz 772 Delegates to Trump 267 Delegates. Kasich would have approximately 85 Delegates guaranteed.
I see a zero probability chance of a Brokered Convention. I am a statistician saying this. Understand the planet will explode from the inside before a Brokered Convention happens. Have I made myself clear? I hope so. Oh and every star in the galaxy can explode at once before a brokered convention. I really hope people understand how certain I am at this point.
I also declare at this point a 99% chance of a Ted Cruz victory in a Contested Convention. This includes a 75% chance of winning on the second ticket. I also predict an 85% chance of a Contested Convention happening, which means at this point I am predicting in very strong Terms that Ted Cruz is the nominee.
Repeating, Ted Cruz has essentially won the nomination at this point, it would be great if the remaining States made it happen for first ticket in a sign of solidarity.
Now to cover how Ted Cruz defeated Trump for his followers to understand. Ted Cruz has offices in 10 more States/Territories than Donald Trump does. Ted Cruz tends to have 5 times more staff dedicated to an office from the start. Donald Trump has been closing offices and moving staff around to the next set of elections as well (this would have a profound effect in a general election, very bad). Ted Cruz also usually opened an office months in advance of when Trump would open an office.
Ted Cruz also has secured roughly 4 to 5 times more endorsements than Trump. Additionally his endorsements tend to be more locally empowering and nationally empowering. Comparing “Proxies”, my term for those stars who go out and actively campaign for a candidate, Ted Cruz wins at about an 9 to 1 level.
The offices, endorsements, and proxies help win the delegate war. You need to convince Convention persons, people who are activist locally, that you are both viable and in their interest. Trump has no succeeded on this local level with the activists. Trump has run a “Top Only” campaign where he is the source of votes, money, and influence. Sarah Palin for example has lost most of her effective influence and is a poor national proxy. She might be a decent local proxy except she also lost her home State to Ted Cruz. Trump over-shadows his proxies by leaps and bounds and they get very little effect because of it.
Conversely the Ted Cruz campaign gives all Proxies full authority to do their own thing on his behalf, and their effect is very strong. Ted Cruz must rely upon influencing people at the grass roots to get his votes, money, and even further influence. Add the data metrics the Ted Cruz campaign is using, the volunteer base that is conservatives and Tea Party in make up, and Ted Cruz has the most effective campaign in the known history of the World. No other candidate could win versus Trump and it shows just how good Ted Cruz is that he has effectively won against Donald Trump.
Trump lost to the only candidate in history who could beat Trump in this election. Ted Cruz is running a campaign better than any candidate in United States History for its capabilities. Trump should not be humiliated by that