I’ve seen this posted several places in the wake of tonight’s devastating defeat: that the exit polls show that the 2012 electorate was profoundly pro-abortion: “Today’s voters self-identified as pro-abortion, by TWENTY THREE POINTS, 59-36”.
Well, not really. Remember that the exit poll methodology changed drastically this year: they only polled in 31 states. Of the 19 states (plus D.C.) that were dropped, there were three tiny 2008 Obama states (plus D.C.) with a total of 14 electoral votes between them, and the other sixteen were huge McCain 2008 states with 24% of the nation’s population and 149 electoral votes, including Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee.
So, the “exit polls” weighted their sample by excluding 1/4 of the electorate. More importantly, these polls explicitly exclude a cherry-picked, heavily Republican, pro-life-leaning 24%.
Now, what happens if we do a little math? Take these deep red states, assume they break 70-30 pro-life (since these states have a lot of pro-life democrats in them)…and add them back in to the mix. (I know this is statistically invalid, but we’re just trying to get an idea here).
0.76 * 0.59 = 44.9% pro-aborts from the original 31-state sample
0.76 * 0.36 = 27.4% pro-life from the original 31-state sample
0.24 * 0.30 = 7.2% pro-aborts from the excluded deep-red McCain states
0.24 * 0.70 = 14.4% pro-life from the excluded deep-red McCain states
For a grand total, “adjusted” exit poll ratio of: 52 to 42 — which means they still “beat us” by ten points in the turnout game, and in a country where Gallup reported in May 2012 that pro-life beats pro-abort by 50-42, that’s a shameful reversal. But it’s not TWENTY-THREE POINTS so we can probably skip the ALL CAPS PANIC.
On that account, anyway. On the future of a country willing to re-elect Chairman Mao after these past four years…hitting the panic button with Thor’s own hammer is only the first step.