Pew’s generic ballot findings nearly match Gallup’s
Pew found the GOP has a +10 point generic among likely voters, nearly matching Gallup’s GOP at +11 in the generic ballot advantage among likely voters, in a high turnout mid-term election.
According to proven predictive algorithms, if the Gallup generic ballot (high turn out) or the Pew generic ballot findings are correct the Dems should lose about 70 House seats.
These levels of losses should push close Senate races to be GOP wins.
Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics generic ballot average is + 7.2 for the GOP.
According to the www.fivethirtyeight.com graph below:
RCP: +7.2 generic ballot for the GOP, Dems lose about 55 House seats.
Pew: +10 generic ballot for the GOP, Dems lose about 68 House seats.
Gallup: +11 generic ballot for the GOP (in a high turn out election) Dems lose about 72 seats.
Gallup: +17 generic ballot for the GOP (in a low turn out election) Dems lose about 95 seats.
Click here to see the graph of the predictive algorithm.