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Can we now stop worrying about PA Senate?

I posted yesterday a quick analysis of the PA Senate race and the supposed tightening of the polls there. The key takeaway was the results of the Morning Call/Muhlenberg daily tracking poll, which I still question because I’m not confident they have their likely voter model correct. But the trend was enlightening:

Sestak 44 – Toomey 41
Sestak 43 – Toomey 43
Sestak 43 – Toomey 43
Sestak 42 – Toomey 45
Sestak 42 – Toomey 47

Well, since it is a daily tracking poll, they released another data point today:

Sestak 40 – Toomey 48

The trend is clear and not good for the Democrat. His low 40 support is eroding, most likely because his base is vacillating on whether to vote or not. I doubt anyone is changing their mind and thinking of voting for Toomey, they are just evaluating whether or not to actually vote.

All the usual caveats, Toomey isn’t over 50 yet, it is only one poll, we still need to GOTV.

But no need to panic, this race is well in hand.

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