A Possible Republican Trifecta in November
In a previous posting, I noted that the Senate may very well be possibly in play for a Republican take over in November along with the House. But what about the governor’s races? They are especially important this year since there will be reapportionment issues and redrawing of Congressional districts as a result of the census. Currently, Democrats lead among governors 26-24 (actually, 26-23-1 if you count that wimp Charlie Crist in Florida vying with George Hamilton and John Boehner for the worst tan- sorry to paraphrase from someone’s previous comment to a posting of mine).
There are 35 governor’s races this year. Democrats have to defend in 19 states. In only four of those states is the Democratic nominee pretty much safe: Arkansas, New Hampshire, New York, and Colorado. That is, the Democratic nominee is up by greater than 10 points in the polls. Colorado is the most interesting one since this is a winnable state with a weak opponent and a third party candidate on the ballot pulling votes from a Republican. In 13 states, the Republican candidate leads the Democrat with eight of those states having the Republican with double-digit leads. In the other two states, the Democratic nominee has precarious leads- Massachusetts and Maryland, two pretty blue states- which indicates that the Republican nominee has a fighting chance.
Republicans have to defend 16 states and their nominees have double-digit leads in 9 of those 16 states. In fact, they lead by an average of 21.4 points in those 9 states. In two others- California and Texas- Republicans lead by less than 10 points- Meg Whitman by 3 points in California and Rick Perry by 5 points in Texas. That leaves 5 states with the Democrats potentially picking up- Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Rhode Island. These five states represent a total of 52 electoral votes, with Florida alone accounting for more than half. In fact, Florida is quite winnable at the end of the day. On average, the Democratic nominee leads by an average 12 points in these states.
What does it all mean? It means that Republicans, based on current polling data, should pick up a net eight Governor’s mansions this year to take a 32-18 advantage overall. When cross-referencing governor races with Senate races and assuming some top-down party line voting behavior, it spells wins for Kirk in Illinois, Portman in Ohio, Toomey in Pennsylvania, and the Republican in Wisconsin. In other words, Republicans win three Democratic seats and defend the fourth. Conversely, using the same reasoning, the only state where this may have an effect is in Florida. But realistically, the candidacy of Crist hurts Meek more than it hurts Rubio, so there is no cause for real worry. However, it may help Fiorina in California because Whitman leads Brown by three points in California for governor. And in the other Republican governor states, other than Connecticut and Hawaii (11 electoral votes with no projected change), there are no Senate races to worry about.
The final analysis indicates that the Democrats have a lot to worry about come November 2nd. Not only do they standa very real possibility of losing the House, they now stand a decent chance to lose the Senate, something I personally did not feel possible 60 days ago. Andthey stand to lose the governor’s mansion in a net total of 8 states. Now, if that is not a repudiation of the policies and philosophy of the Democratic brand and, by extension, Barack Obama, I don’t know what would get the message through his skull short of a good smack. Bill Clinton in 1994 had the good political sense to adjust with the changing political landscape. Based on his performance so far, it is doubtful Obama has that same good political sense. Barack Obama is truly living up to his title of being a transformative President. He has transformed the Democratic Party and their liberal beliefs into the nonsense that it is. How’s that for clinging to guns and religion? The burning questions for 2012 will be: Did he get the message? How many tingling legs will there be in 2012?